FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Historically, the new build, 1-2 bedroom apartments haven’t been too popular with families with older kids (MS/HS age). It will be a bunch of older singles, yes some DINKS especially if they have jobs in the suburbs, and young families with babies and young children. You’ll still see some increase to the enrollment at Lewis just by sheer volume though.

Bingo, and the increase will be modest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The new housing at Springfield Mall is going to be filled with families and will push Lwis to full capacity in the next couple of years.


"...2 million square feet of commercial space and up to 2,736 residential units, in addition to the Springfield Mall, were approved for the area where the apartment building and hotel will be located. .."



https://northernvirginiamag.com/home/real-estate/2023/01/03/springfield-town-center-apartements-hotel/

FCPS should not rezone anyone to Lewis right no, ad should focus on eliminating IB and standing up a solid AP proram at Lewis these next couple of years.

You left out the part where it's noted this approval of up to 2,736 units occurred back in 2007. Gosh, maybe approval and actual construction are different things.

In any event, FCPS already estimates that, if all these approved units were actually built, the yield to Lewis would be in the vicinity of 52-66 students, which would still leave Lewis significantly under-enrolled.

Unless every residential unit takes over five years to build, the projections are fundamentally an undercount.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The new housing at Springfield Mall is going to be filled with families and will push Lwis to full capacity in the next couple of years.


"...2 million square feet of commercial space and up to 2,736 residential units, in addition to the Springfield Mall, were approved for the area where the apartment building and hotel will be located. .."



https://northernvirginiamag.com/home/real-estate/2023/01/03/springfield-town-center-apartements-hotel/

FCPS should not rezone anyone to Lewis right no, ad should focus on eliminating IB and standing up a solid AP proram at Lewis these next couple of years.

You left out the part where it's noted this approval of up to 2,736 units occurred back in 2007. Gosh, maybe approval and actual construction are different things.

In any event, FCPS already estimates that, if all these approved units were actually built, the yield to Lewis would be in the vicinity of 52-66 students, which would still leave Lewis significantly under-enrolled.

Unless every residential unit takes over five years to build, the projections are fundamentally an undercount.

What's your proof they are consistently under-estimating students in the CIPs? It appears for the most part they have been over-estimating the number of students in future years in recent CIPs. But it varies by school - for example, they have been under-estimating the enrollments at West Springfield and over-estimating the enrollments at Lewis in their projections. That can't be due to not factoring in big new multi-family housing developments because they aren't getting built in the WSHS district.

[Anonymous]

The article is from 2023.

According to the article, the first round of development will include 400 housing units:

"...Springfield Town Center Approved for First Residential Units Since 2001
In addition to over 400 residential units, the shopping center will also feature a five-story hotel...."

WSHS is drastically undercounting future Lewis enrollment.

[Anonymous]

A new article from July 2024 when they broke ground on the big apartment complex zoned for Lewis:


"...Springfield Town Center Redevelopment Update 07/19/24

Construction Update: Springfield Town Center

VSM² Structural Engineers has shared an update on the Springfield Town Center project in Springfield, VA—marking the first new residential units since 2001. The development will feature a residential building, connected by a preexisting garage retrofitted to meet new needs. The apartment building will consist of three levels of post-tensioned concrete and five levels of wood framing, ultimately providing 439 residential units. Future residents will also enjoy a pool and an arbor courtyard connected by a pass-through loggia...."



https://www.bldup.com/posts/construction-update-springfield-town-center

[Anonymous]

And this article from this February 2024:

"...In addition to the apartments and hotel, there will be a public fitness/dog park, an expansion of the existing parking garage near JC Penney with a skybridge connecting to the residential building. Construction should be completed in 2025...."

The article cites the Lego Center as a major draw for these apartments. It sounds like the apartment is focused on appealing to families with kids.


https://m.connectionnewspapers.com/news/2024/feb/21/stage-set-for-construction-at-springfield-town-center/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lewis has a big new housing building going in by the mall with dozens of units that will be filled with families with kids. It appears that it will be operational in a matter of months.

Isn't there also a big housing development going in where Lewis, Hayfield and Edison meet? And a housing development near edison?

The mall development is zoned for Lewis already.

The one between the 3 high schools should be zoned for Lewis.

FCPS can easily make up capacity at Lewis with just those 2 new developments.

Edison is full. There could be some adjustments on that end with special programs or new housing.

FCPS can increase Lewis enrollment with minimum rezoning and disruption, just by new housing plus closing the IB program at Lewis.

How do you know the apartments going in by the mall will be filled with families with kids?

Because DINKS don't live in Springfield.

Springfield is boring.

It is a place where people move to raise kids. Singles, college students, young adults starting their careers, empty nesters and young professionals will not choose to live in those apartments. Prove me wrong.

The new apartments will be filled with lower income families with kids, some with multiple families, and divorced single moms with kids.

The kids will be older preteens and teens, and people will choose it because it is walkable to Lewis as well as to the mall for free babysitting entertainment for their middle schoolers while the parents work.

Okay so you made that up. Thanks.

Twll us you don't know anything about the area without saying it.

Dinks are not moving to Springfield.

Those apartments will be filled with families with school aged kids.

I'm very familiar with Springfield and that area in particular. I doubt that it will be "filled" with families with kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The article is from 2023.

According to the article, the first round of development will include 400 housing units:

"...Springfield Town Center Approved for First Residential Units Since 2001
In addition to over 400 residential units, the shopping center will also feature a five-story hotel...."

WSHS is drastically undercounting future Lewis enrollment.

No, it's FCPS that has consistently over-estimated Lewis's enrollment. WSHS is not responsible for projecting Lewis's future enrollment although it may play a role in increasing it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lewis has a big new housing building going in by the mall with dozens of units that will be filled with families with kids. It appears that it will be operational in a matter of months.

Isn't there also a big housing development going in where Lewis, Hayfield and Edison meet? And a housing development near edison?

The mall development is zoned for Lewis already.

The one between the 3 high schools should be zoned for Lewis.

FCPS can easily make up capacity at Lewis with just those 2 new developments.

Edison is full. There could be some adjustments on that end with special programs or new housing.

FCPS can increase Lewis enrollment with minimum rezoning and disruption, just by new housing plus closing the IB program at Lewis.

How do you know the apartments going in by the mall will be filled with families with kids?

Because DINKS don't live in Springfield.

Springfield is boring.

It is a place where people move to raise kids. Singles, college students, young adults starting their careers, empty nesters and young professionals will not choose to live in those apartments. Prove me wrong.

The new apartments will be filled with lower income families with kids, some with multiple families, and divorced single moms with kids.

The kids will be older preteens and teens, and people will choose it because it is walkable to Lewis as well as to the mall for free babysitting entertainment for their middle schoolers while the parents work.

Okay so you made that up. Thanks.

Twll us you don't know anything about the area without saying it.

Dinks are not moving to Springfield.

Those apartments will be filled with families with school aged kids.

I'm very familiar with Springfield and that area in particular. I doubt that it will be "filled" with families with kids.

+1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The article is from 2023.

According to the article, the first round of development will include 400 housing units:

"...Springfield Town Center Approved for First Residential Units Since 2001
In addition to over 400 residential units, the shopping center will also feature a five-story hotel...."

WSHS is drastically undercounting future Lewis enrollment.

Yes, of course.

A typo obviously.

No, it's FCPS that has consistently over-estimated Lewis's enrollment. WSHS is not responsible for projecting Lewis's future enrollment although it may play a role in increasing it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“In the case of WSHS, the next closest under capacity school is South County, not Lewis. SCHS is under capacity by a similar percentage as Lewis.”

Not for everyone. We’re WSHS and there are 3 high schools closer than SC.

True.

Daventry and much if Keene Mill Elementary are much closer to Lewis than WSHS.

Good point.

Actually, we’re Keene Mill and it takes 7 minutes through the neighborhood to get to West Springfield and considerably longer than that to get to Lewis. Proximity by distance doesn’t equal proximity by travel time.

[Anonymous]

Let's say only 1/4 of those roughly 400 units have teens in them.

That is 90 to 100 new students for Lewis next year.

Close the IB program and switching to AP brings roughly 200 more students back to Lewis.

Lewis could increase its enrollment by hundreds of students in one year, to 1700-1800 students, for the 2025-2026 school year using currently zoned Lewis students and new home builds, with no distuptive rezoning necessary.

What would be worst case scenario is FCPS doing a disruptive, unwanted rezoning to any of the 2 closest WSHS zoned neighborhoods, Keene Mill or Daventry, or the farthest zoned neighborhoods from Lewis, Hunt Valley, then have dozens or hundreds of kids move to those apartments, resulting in Lewis being full or over capacity next year before the rezoning starts but after it has been decided who goes.

FCPS needs to leave Lewis alone this year, fix the IB loophole, stop the AP transfers out of Lewis, then revisit rezoning on the 2030 cycle after they see the impact of the hundreds of new housing units being built in the Lewis zone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Let's say only 1/4 of those roughly 400 units have teens in them.

That is 90 to 100 new students for Lewis next year.

Close the IB program and switching to AP brings roughly 200 more students back to Lewis.

Lewis could increase its enrollment by hundreds of students in one year, to 1700-1800 students, for the 2025-2026 school year using currently zoned Lewis students and new home builds, with no distuptive rezoning necessary.

What would be worst case scenario is FCPS doing a disruptive, unwanted rezoning to any of the 2 closest WSHS zoned neighborhoods, Keene Mill or Daventry, or the farthest zoned neighborhoods from Lewis, Hunt Valley, then have dozens or hundreds of kids move to those apartments, resulting in Lewis being full or over capacity next year before the rezoning starts but after it has been decided who goes.

FCPS needs to leave Lewis alone this year, fix the IB loophole, stop the AP transfers out of Lewis, then revisit rezoning on the 2030 cycle after they see the impact of the hundreds of new housing units being built in the Lewis zone.

They are projecting that Lewis will be at 1476 kids in 2029-30. That would appear to include 16 students from projects currently under construction. If all the other pending and approved projects in the pipeline zoned to Lewis were to come to fruition - a big if - that is only estimated to add an additional 73 students. Meanwhile they are projecting West Springfield will have over 3000 students by 2029-30. Historically, they have over-estimated the enrollments at Lewis and under-estimated the enrollments at West Springfield.

If they look at that and say "hey, that's OK," there is not a single high school boundary in FCPS they should be adjusting. Not one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let's say only 1/4 of those roughly 400 units have teens in them.

That is 90 to 100 new students for Lewis next year.

Close the IB program and switching to AP brings roughly 200 more students back to Lewis.

Lewis could increase its enrollment by hundreds of students in one year, to 1700-1800 students, for the 2025-2026 school year using currently zoned Lewis students and new home builds, with no distuptive rezoning necessary.

What would be worst case scenario is FCPS doing a disruptive, unwanted rezoning to any of the 2 closest WSHS zoned neighborhoods, Keene Mill or Daventry, or the farthest zoned neighborhoods from Lewis, Hunt Valley, then have dozens or hundreds of kids move to those apartments, resulting in Lewis being full or over capacity next year before the rezoning starts but after it has been decided who goes.

FCPS needs to leave Lewis alone this year, fix the IB loophole, stop the AP transfers out of Lewis, then revisit rezoning on the 2030 cycle after they see the impact of the hundreds of new housing units being built in the Lewis zone.

They are projecting that Lewis will be at 1476 kids in 2029-30. That would appear to include 16 students from projects currently under construction. If all the other pending and approved projects in the pipeline zoned to Lewis were to come to fruition - a big if - that is only estimated to add an additional 73 students. Meanwhile they are projecting West Springfield will have over 3000 students by 2029-30. Historically, they have over-estimated the enrollments at Lewis and under-estimated the enrollments at West Springfield.

If they look at that and say "hey, that's OK," there is not a single high school boundary in FCPS they should be adjusting. Not one.

They are only projecting 16 high school students in a 400 unit apartment complex walkable to Lewis?

That is laughable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The new housing at Springfield Mall is going to be filled with families and will push Lwis to full capacity in the next couple of years.


"...2 million square feet of commercial space and up to 2,736 residential units, in addition to the Springfield Mall, were approved for the area where the apartment building and hotel will be located. .."



https://northernvirginiamag.com/home/real-estate/2023/01/03/springfield-town-center-apartements-hotel/

FCPS should not rezone anyone to Lewis right no, ad should focus on eliminating IB and standing up a solid AP proram at Lewis these next couple of years.

You left out the part where it's noted this approval of up to 2,736 units occurred back in 2007. Gosh, maybe approval and actual construction are different things.

In any event, FCPS already estimates that, if all these approved units were actually built, the yield to Lewis would be in the vicinity of 52-66 students, which would still leave Lewis significantly under-enrolled.

Unless every residential unit takes over five years to build, the projections are fundamentally an undercount.

What's your proof they are consistently under-estimating students in the CIPs? It appears for the most part they have been over-estimating the number of students in future years in recent CIPs. But it varies by school - for example, they have been under-estimating the enrollments at West Springfield and over-estimating the enrollments at Lewis in their projections. That can't be due to not factoring in big new multi-family housing developments because they aren't getting built in the WSHS district.

Definitional logic, and Fcps’s own statements, including in the recent CIP PPT that szymanski walked through.