Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html

Trump still has the edge in battlegrounds.

All that matters is state by state. Who cares about 15 battlegrounds all together.

As someone desperate for Trump not to be reelected: I care. Gd, please, not Trump again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html

Trump still has the edge in battlegrounds.

All that matters is state by state. Who cares about 15 battlegrounds all together.

As someone desperate for Trump not to be reelected: I care. Gd, please, not Trump again.

I'm with you. But did you look at the methodology? It's misleading. It's also only May.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Hopefully Trump screams at Parscale again.

[Anonymous]

This is a GOP poll. Of GEORGIA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a GOP poll. Of GEORGIA.

Remember how VA was a red state? And now it's reliably blue? GA, TX, and AZ are next. GOP, you are so focked.

[Anonymous]

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.
What's the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they're an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.
When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden's running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's final margin.
In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.
That's actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high quality national polling average taken during the same period. I should note that if we weight the average of state polls to each state's population, we get a margin just north of that 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)
EIther way, all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/17/politics/state-polls-2020-analysis/index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.
What's the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they're an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.
When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden's running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's final margin.
In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.
That's actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high quality national polling average taken during the same period. I should note that if we weight the average of state polls to each state's population, we get a margin just north of that 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)
EIther way, all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/17/politics/state-polls-2020-analysis/index.html

Biden has posted leads of greater than 5 points in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He is ahead in more than enough states to capture 270 electoral votes, if the election were held today.
We can test our data, too, to see what would happen if the polls are underestimating Trump like they did in 2016.
What I found was Biden would still be ahead, even with a 2016 sized mishap.

[Anonymous]

Biden is a native of PA. He will carry that state.

There is almost no chance of Trump repeating a victory in Michigan.

Wisconsin is likely still in play, though the GOP games with respect to voting and now the state Supreme Court is crossing lines with independents and all but the most ardent Trump supporters.

[Anonymous]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/498462-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-7points-in-arizona

A new survey finds former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7 points in Arizona, which has not gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since former President Bill Clinton carried it in a three-way race in 1996.

The latest OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) survey finds Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 43 percent. Biden has held a steady lead in the Grand Canyon State since March, with the past three OHPI polls finding him up by between 6 and 9 points.

[Anonymous]

Biden +9 in Florida on a poll released this morning.

[Anonymous]

The optimism inspiring news just keeps coming...

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This is true. If Biden gets FL and WI he could lose PA, MI, NC, and part of Maine and still get the White House.

[Anonymous]

And he won't lose PA and likely not MI.