Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Because Russia changed that eight-year status quo with its invasion of the rest of Ukraine. Russia had most of Donbas and Crimea. And the West had let it slide without significant consequences - all of them; Obama, Trump, Merkel, Macron, Boris Johnson, Trudeau. If Russia hadn't invaded and sought to take Kyiv, the capital, they'd be doing just fine. Some skirmishing in Donbas. Some minor sanctions. But otherwise Russia would still get its oil revenue, most of Donbas would more or less be incorporated into Russia, and they'd hold on to a nice warm weather port on the Black Sea for its navy and Russian vacationers. 2014 was a total win for Russia. If Russians were smart, they would have enjoyed their victory and that would be that.

Instead, Russians made a colossal mistake by invading the rest of Ukraine. And Ukrainians fought back, destroying its Spetsnaz, paratroopers, and much of the initial armor in the first weeks. Absolutely legendary. But one year later the war has settled into a kind of stalemate. And it's not remotely sustainable. So far, in one year, somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died. The civilian casualties are unknowable until there's an accounting of what happened in Mariupol, but it's well into the thousands. For comparison, the US lost 58,000 soldiers in Vietnam over twenty years. The war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot settle into a stalemate. The costs in human lives have been too large. There will be a winner and a loser. Because there is no alternative.

So far, the Biden administration and its NATO allies have navigated this pretty well. Freedom and self-determination on one side. Imperialism and genocide on the other. But no one wanst American or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So it's a thread the needle situation. This is a problem without an easy solution.

Think the real fear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand situation. The Law of Unintended Consequences looms large here..

The Spring offensive will collapse what is left of the Russian army.

I'd like to think so. I follow this pretty closely. But I am not so sanguine. Russian artillery is for real.

But Russian men seem to be fine with dying. They are like atheist ISIS. I don't mean this unkindly, but Russian men are genuine weirdos. Take a gander at the 18 + Ukraine war stuff on certain popular websites

It is horrible.

As I always tell the youngsters, don't fight crazy. But Russians are like the crackheads of the world. Bit of a problem

Slavic men and women as a whole are weirdos

Let’s be 100% honest

If you’ve spent any time out east, you know this regardless of their personal politics that it is a totally different civilization post church split.

this is why biden’s policy is the best. He’s optimally letting both sides grind each other down

Am half-Slavic. Used to live in that part of the world. Please don't equate Russians with Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, and Ukrainians. You genuinely don't know what you're talking about. Very much not the same.

DP but it’s funny. It’s what other Slavs like to think but they are all children of the communism. Some a little more than others but essentially the same. But whatever makes you feel better

Pp half slav made my point

It’s also way more than just “children of communism”….goes back much further than that

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

That stalemate was that Obama told Ukraine to stand down and let Russia take Ukraine, there was no active war, but some smaller scale fighting in another part of Ukraine, where Russia pretended they weren't helping.

Oh, were you in the room when he told them that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

That stalemate was that Obama told Ukraine to stand down and let Russia take Ukraine, there was no active war, but some smaller scale fighting in another part of Ukraine, where Russia pretended they weren't helping.

Oh, were you in the room when he told them that?

No someone posted on Twitter about it. I think they had 5 followers but had just been unbanned by Musk. So a pretty reliable new source. Why do you ask?

[Anonymous]

Former Trump official Pampeo is on board to defeat Russia.

And Finland is now part of NATO.

Is Putin really a master strategist ???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Former Trump official Pampeo is on board to defeat Russia.

And Finland is now part of NATO.

Is Putin really a master strategist ???

Your mistake is to view this through the prism of Russia vs USA. Try it through the lens of USA vs China, and this starts to look like a debacle for team USA. Russia is a regional power, that is no danger to anyone but its immediate neighbors and our foreign policy is being built around them. China is the rising power/peer that has been refashioning the world order to its advantage.

NATO doesn't really have a winning move here. How long are they willing to feed a war of attrition? Even if they kicked Russia back across the border, then what? Permanent bases in Ukraine to preserve them? A Marshall plan to rebuild the Ukraine? Where are these resources going to come from? Are they going to force all the refugees back to repopulate the nation?

This whole thing can consume NATO for a generation. What is China free to do in that time?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Former Trump official Pampeo is on board to defeat Russia.

And Finland is now part of NATO.

Is Putin really a master strategist ???

Your mistake is to view this through the prism of Russia vs USA. Try it through the lens of USA vs China, and this starts to look like a debacle for team USA. Russia is a regional power, that is no danger to anyone but its immediate neighbors and our foreign policy is being built around them. China is the rising power/peer that has been refashioning the world order to its advantage.

NATO doesn't really have a winning move here. How long are they willing to feed a war of attrition? Even if they kicked Russia back across the border, then what? Permanent bases in Ukraine to preserve them? A Marshall plan to rebuild the Ukraine? Where are these resources going to come from? Are they going to force all the refugees back to repopulate the nation?

This whole thing can consume NATO for a generation. What is China free to do in that time?

Lol sure. I think your stronger agreement was sex traffickers in the basement of the pizza place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Former Trump official Pampeo is on board to defeat Russia.

And Finland is now part of NATO.

Is Putin really a master strategist ???

DP. No. I don't believe Putin is a master strategist. In fact, my fear is there is no strategy at all. I believe that Putin is being managed in a bubble by the people around him and spoon-fed information from rosy intelligence reports and Russian State TV propaganda.

"Karakulov’s account generally conforms with others that paint the Russian president as a once charismatic but increasingly isolated leader, who doesn’t use a cellphone or the internet and insists on access to Russian state television wherever he goes."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-defector-war-crimes-khodorkovsky-karakulov-dossier-845421fe06ed9cfa1962ad4f98a2e413

And why is this a concern? What is Putin watching today on Russian State TV that he might be influenced by?

APRIL 4TH RUSSIAN STATE TV // https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1643107373446209536

Solovyov: "Let's destroy the city of Kyiv, the hell with it, the government district, the Duma, where they all sit."
"We should give them an ultimatum."
Solovyov: "No need, no need for any ultimatum. Wipe it off the face of the Earth. Kyiv's government district should not exist. It should be destroyed, as well as in Kharkiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv. That's it - jokes are over. You can only fight the unclean with fire falling from the skies. Fire and brimstone, like Sodom and Gomorrah"

[3:10 / 4:28] When Solovyov says "this is a Holy War", Vasyl Vakarov, political commentator, is clearly disturbed by the discourse. Solovyov directly calls him out.

Solovyov: "Vasyl Vakarov, are you against this? [slow, monotone phrasing] I am very specific as to which districts."
Vakarov: [agitated] "I am against this. I don't see this as a solution."

That's when Solovyov goes off the rails and asks if he is against God, lifts an open hand looking upward and asks what did the Lord do at Sodom and Gomorrah.

Vakarov: [upset] "Destroyed everything."
Solovyov: [soft tone] "With burning sulfur."

Solovyov mentions the Solntsepyok (TOS-1 thermobaric launcher).*

This clip is the most silent that I've ever seen Margarita Simonyan. She completely stayed out of the back-and-forth, rolling her eyes. Her facial expression at [4:03 / 4:28] says it all. My guess is that was the moment she realized she was a War Criminal.

[4:07 / 4:28]
"The punishment of God has fallen upon you. The Lord has chosen us as the weapon of judgement. He chose Russia."**

* = thermobarics are unguided rockets (e.g. indescriminate in terms of targeting).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1

"The destruction radius of a thermobaric explosion is estimated to be about 1,000-feet-wide but can have a blast area of up to 6,500 feet" [1.23 Miles]
"Russia's largest thermobaric weapon, tested in 2007, is believed to have packed the equivalent of 44 tons of TNT"
https://abcnews.go.com/International/russias-alleged-vacuum-bomb-ukraine-highlights-weapons-race/story?id=83316116

If you want to see what this looks like on a map, enter "2. Enter a yield: 0.044" and click the "DETONATE" button. Although this website primarily shows nuclear weapons, thermobarics are similar in nature in terms of heat and overpressure - just ignore the fallout or radiation rings.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

"the blast wave or overpressure, which can be up to 73 kglcm2 (1000 lb/ sq in), that is the main reason for its lethal and destructive effects"
"The result is a plasma cloud that reaches temperatures of between 2,500-3000′ Celsius"
"it consumes all oxygen in the area and the resultant vacuum pulls loose objects into this void4. If the explosive does not detonate, the affected area can be highly toxic, as one of the common fuels used is ethylene oxide. Ethylene oxide is a gas used as a sterilising agent in the health industry and is extremely toxic if inhaled6. This may lead to accusations of the use of chemical warfare if this situation were to occur."
"The alveoli, if ruptured, leak fluid into the lungs, which could lead to complete filling or ‘shock lung’ or ‘blast lung’18. Other complications of alveolar rupture are arterial gas embolisms14,19, pneumothorax and/or haemothorax14. Mellor et al16 note that respiratory distress related to a non-fatal injury may not present for several hours, with Armstrong 14 suggesting 48 hours"
"The cardiovascular system may be affected by an air embolus in the heart or coronary arteries16, 18, or by diffuse damage to the myocardium"
"Monitoring for peritonitis, due to leaking bowel contents18, and haemorrhaging is requiredH. This can occur up to 14 days after the injury"
"The main injury to the central nervous system from primary blast is a cerebral arterial gas embolism and this may cause an unexplained deterioration in function or death"
https://jmvh.org/article/munitions-thermobaric-munitions-and-their-medical-effects/

** = I believe this is consistent with Solovyov's personal background.
His son is homosexual and dodged Russian military service in Ukraine.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-media-star-vladimir-solovyov-erupts-after-son-accused-of-dodging-ukraine-war
Or maybe because he danced with Zelensky?
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1592813122519080961?lang=en
Perhaps Solovyov could have interpreted this as a punishment from God? Or maybe this is his pennance to keep is son off of Unit 29155's radar?

It's often difficult who in Russia is actually crazy versus just pretending to be crazy.

[Anonymous]

Touch grass

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Former Trump official Pampeo is on board to defeat Russia.

And Finland is now part of NATO.

Is Putin really a master strategist ???

Your mistake is to view this through the prism of Russia vs USA. Try it through the lens of USA vs China, and this starts to look like a debacle for team USA. Russia is a regional power, that is no danger to anyone but its immediate neighbors and our foreign policy is being built around them. China is the rising power/peer that has been refashioning the world order to its advantage.

NATO doesn't really have a winning move here. How long are they willing to feed a war of attrition? Even if they kicked Russia back across the border, then what? Permanent bases in Ukraine to preserve them? A Marshall plan to rebuild the Ukraine? Where are these resources going to come from? Are they going to force all the refugees back to repopulate the nation?

This whole thing can consume NATO for a generation. What is China free to do in that time?

Disagree. All this war did was wake up NATO to fire up the industrial base and military build up.

China is only dangerous in the South China Sea; where they have a shot at taking Taiwan in next 18 months.
But not for long after that; same as WW2; once the US gets in war footing we are tough to beat.

Russians followed Putin to their demise; just like the Germans followed hitler.

[Anonymous]

Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

Do an accuracy read of their predictions and report back. Didn’t they all believe once Iraq had WMD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

That stalemate was that Obama told Ukraine to stand down and let Russia take Ukraine, there was no active war, but some smaller scale fighting in another part of Ukraine, where Russia pretended they weren't helping.

Oh, were you in the room when he told them that?

Sorry, I meant let Russia take Crimea, referring to 2014.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

Do an accuracy read of their predictions and report back. Didn’t they all believe once Iraq had WMD?

Nope. These are survey results.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

Do an accuracy read of their predictions and report back. Didn’t they all believe once Iraq had WMD?

"An employee of the Russian Defense Ministry has been found dead after apparently falling from a high-rise apartment building in St. Petersburg in the latest mysterious death of a senior official. Marina Yankina, 58, was the head of finance and procurement of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Western Military District."
"The report of her death on February 16 comes just days after Major General Vladimir Makarov -- who was recently fired by Russian President Vladimir Putin -- was found dead in a suspected suicide outside of Moscow."
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-senior-official-fall-from-apartment-building/32274330.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022–2023)

"Russia’s security services are confiscating the passports of senior officials and state company executives to prevent overseas travel"
"Executives at one major state industrial company are banned from travelling more than two hours’ drive from Moscow without official permission"
https://www.ft.com/content/c41be6b0-f625-46f2-91e4-d03eb4b6372b

"it is impossible to increase the deficit indefinitely, and it is also dangerous to print money, to borrow from businesses in the desired volumes. We will not be surprised if the government returns to the idea of borrowing from the population. It is possible that it will be forced. The experience of the USSR is known, there are more than 60 million state employees in Russia — there are all the necessary conditions for grazing [upon the public] in a grand style."
https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-national-deficit-grows-government-seeks-persuade-citizens-voluntarily-extend-it-long

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:History is long, cities are captured and change hands. Civilizations rise and fall.

And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity.

If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain.

I have a very different take on this point.

Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia. Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point.

The net result? I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..). I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end. No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious

The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated. The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea). Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it.

Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection. And what will China do?

Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet. Xi may not want that. Other chinese officials may not want that. Now. But later? Who knows.

There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger.

Feel better now?

No

I think the environmental impact from that kind of strike ends it for everyone.

Russia going nuclear is suicide for Russia. It would be pure idiocy.

No it’s not. Russia can still play this card and call our bluff. If Russia launches a strike against Ukraine, are we really going to respond? Are we willing to sacrifice Chicago for Kiev? Los Angeles for Odesa? No. We can certainly put a tighter economic squeeze on Russia but Putin has enough friends to avert an economic collapse.

Comrade Trollski:

We have a new saying in America:

“Fu** around and find out.”

If a nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine, I can absolutely promise you this:

NATO will very quickly use the massive military means at its disposal to obliterate what little remains of the Russian military.

Empty bravado.

NP

Go join your countrymen at the front... they need your help.

NP: yes, comrade. Please go directly to Bakhmut.


- it’s only one tiny town, right?

- Russia’s army is the strongest by far, right?

- Russians obviously possess superior intelligence compared to all other races, right? - so their military tactics must also be superior, right?

- Russians have nukes, so obviously they are strongest, right?

- Russians say their soldiers can rip apart decadent NATO tanks with their bare hands, right?

So Comrade Trollski: I must ask you an extremely serious and direct question:

- why are you not going to Bahkmut to solve that little problem??

I was the previous new poster telling the pro Russian dude to go to the front so that he would meet the same fate as the majority of his comrades... I thought it was a solid response... Piggybacking on the great response "f@#$ around and find out" (well said sir). Maybe I wasn't clear enough because I didn't start it with comrade, but you ruined it.