FCPS HS Boundary

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Just wondering. . . do the numbers reflect students in AAP at Lake Braddock who then return to WSHS for high school. They do not go to Irving, but come from WSHS feeder elementary schools.

Yes, the 10-YR average of +178 students attending WSHS above the comparable cohort from Irving MS (7th and 8th graders (x2)) would include the kids coming from AAP LB back to WSHS.

There is a lot of variation in this figure from year to year. Here is the historic delta data ...

SY2010: +84
SY2011: +323
SY2012: +273
SY2013: +319
SY2014: +429
SY2015: +258
SY2016: +97
SY2017: -65
SY2018: +87
SY2019: +150
SY2020: +97
SY2021: +97 (COVID)
SY2022: +316 (return from COVID)
SY2023: +308

My point is that the CIP projects assume this WSHS-to-Irving MS delta is as follows:

SY2024: +300
SY2025: +389
SY2026: +304
SY2027: +376
SY2028: +315

That is a very high assumed sustained delta between WSHS and Irving MS. It is an assumed average delta of +337 students. No period 5-year period has that high of an average delta, not even the atypical SY2011-SY2015 period, which saw an average delta of +320 students.

This assumption is nearly the entire reason the school is projected to be above 110% capacity in the future. If it followed historical averages, WSHS will be between 98%-111% capacity in SY2028.

Is the CIP assumption right? Who knows? My point is, there is no emergency at WSHS. The parents are not clamoring about overcrowding. The principal is not saying the students cannot be serviced. The SB should let this play out over the next 5 years. If they are right, the school will approach 117% over capacity and something may need to be done. BUT the SB should definitely not do something so damaging to the community based on projections, especially only a few years out from COVID shocking enrollment numbers. Let the dust settle after the COVID enrollment shocks and see what happens.

But they just had a reno; as a taxpayer, I don’t want to give that school anything/trailer or Modular’s when another school just down the road sits with room.

It’s not just Lewis that is under enrolled, though - it’s also South County and Lake Braddock. Both of which are quite near to WSHS’s borders. LB and WSHS also share a split feeder in Sangster. Point is, if WSHS complains about overcrowding (which there is no indication is real at this point in time) there’s an easy fix in dumping their split feeder entirely to LB, thus decreasing eventual enrollment at WSHS by 100-200 I’m guessing. That would also fit with the “stated” and “on paper” goal of reducing split feeders and attendance islands. In fact, that’s such a no brainer that it would seem very suspicious if that’s not what ends up happening.

Nope. That would only work if you got rid of AAP. Name an AAP school for WSHS that’s isn’t Sangster.

If they plan to get rid of AAP in 4 years, a Sangster shift might work

You really don't know anything about tge area you are pushing to rezone.

Keene Mill Elementary is the other WSHS AAP center.

I know that….it also has an island bordering Lake Braddock boundary that people forget about. Also, is the one school Hunt Valley parents want to throw to Lewis to save themselves.

I don't think pointing out the geography of area is throwing Keene Mill to Lewis.

Geography is Geography.

I don't think that the school board should rezone WSHS, especially since they are using inflated numbers to justify rezoning.

But if they are going to rezone under the guise of saving transportation funds, then they need to consider geography, which puts the 2 closest schools to Lewis with adjacent borders to Lewis, West Springfield Elementary and Keene Mill Elementary, in the forefront of consideration.

Putting the farthest elementary school from Lewis on busses and driving them past 4 WSHS zoned elementary schools, plus 3 Lewis zoned elementary schools, past the mixing bowl and through the literal Franconia Metro Station exit traffic makes no sense.

Don’t think so. If you are already on a bus to middle and high, easier to move. Nothing changes. Keene Walks to Irving, they aren’t touching that. Also, like a PP mentioned….cant remove one of the only AAP centers. Especially if they shift Sangster to Lake Braddock.

Nice try though.

This argument is really grasping for straws.

A 10 minute bus ride down OKM to the elementary schools adjacent to Lewis.

Or a 30 minute bus ride if the traffic cooperates for Hunt Valley.

If you were arguing that Hunt Valley should go to SoCo, you might have some merit.

But HV to Lewis is absurd.

Right! If we are looking to fix under enrollment at Lewis then let's look at the populations that are 5 minutes away from Lewis but zoned for other high schools. The western boundary of Lewis that extends to the intersection of FFX County Pkwy/Franconia springfield pkway is a stretch, would love to hear from those families and how it's impacted their community and their involvement at Lewis.

Just googled hunt valley es to Lewis: 9 minutes
Hunt valley es to WSHS: 7 minutes

Keep going. Google Bren Mar, Lane, etc etc. All the other schools zoned for other HS’s but closer.

Your crusade is just weird Saratoga Savior.

No dog in this fight, but google maps leaving now shows there to be about a 5 minute difference to get to Lewis from WSES, HV, and RV, all under 20.

That part of the parkway flows in the AM. There are some bad lights by Springfield mall, but also on OKM. It really is negligible.

Aside from that HV is the least diverse and lowest FARMs school in the pyramid. Not sure that matters, but I suspect it does.

A bus leaving the HV neighborhood going to WSHS has 3 lights to deal with: right onto OKM, left onto Hillside, and the final right onto Rolling to reach the school. Or, the bus could skip Hillside and turn left onto Rolling to reach the school. That same bus has to make it through 9 lights to Lewis.

And HVES is 51.12% white as of their last May 24 stats. I see Orange Hunt sitting at 62.75% white with a higher FARMS rate. I'm not advocating for OH to be moved but let's not pretend that HVES is the least diverse and richest school in the WS pyramid.

Hunt Valley may be racially diverse, but it's only 7% FARMS.

Where do you see that? The last I see is 11.16% as of the previous school year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s not 7% - you’re just lying at this point.

https://www.greatschools.org/virginia/springfield/514-Hunt-Valley-Elementary-School/#Students

do you have a better source, or do you just accuse people of lying based on facts you make up?

https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:13::::0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:378,0

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s not 7% - you’re just lying at this point.

https://www.greatschools.org/virginia/springfield/514-Hunt-Valley-Elementary-School/#Students

do you have a better source, or do you just accuse people of lying based on facts you make up?

https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108%3A8

Use the actual source

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just wondering. . . do the numbers reflect students in AAP at Lake Braddock who then return to WSHS for high school. They do not go to Irving, but come from WSHS feeder elementary schools.

Yes, the 10-YR average of +178 students attending WSHS above the comparable cohort from Irving MS (7th and 8th graders (x2)) would include the kids coming from AAP LB back to WSHS.

There is a lot of variation in this figure from year to year. Here is the historic delta data ...

SY2010: +84
SY2011: +323
SY2012: +273
SY2013: +319
SY2014: +429
SY2015: +258
SY2016: +97
SY2017: -65
SY2018: +87
SY2019: +150
SY2020: +97
SY2021: +97 (COVID)
SY2022: +316 (return from COVID)
SY2023: +308

My point is that the CIP projects assume this WSHS-to-Irving MS delta is as follows:

SY2024: +300
SY2025: +389
SY2026: +304
SY2027: +376
SY2028: +315

That is a very high assumed sustained delta between WSHS and Irving MS. It is an assumed average delta of +337 students. No period 5-year period has that high of an average delta, not even the atypical SY2011-SY2015 period, which saw an average delta of +320 students.

This assumption is nearly the entire reason the school is projected to be above 110% capacity in the future. If it followed historical averages, WSHS will be between 98%-111% capacity in SY2028.

Is the CIP assumption right? Who knows? My point is, there is no emergency at WSHS. The parents are not clamoring about overcrowding. The principal is not saying the students cannot be serviced. The SB should let this play out over the next 5 years. If they are right, the school will approach 117% over capacity and something may need to be done. BUT the SB should definitely not do something so damaging to the community based on projections, especially only a few years out from COVID shocking enrollment numbers. Let the dust settle after the COVID enrollment shocks and see what happens.

But they just had a reno; as a taxpayer, I don’t want to give that school anything/trailer or Modular’s when another school just down the road sits with room.

It’s not just Lewis that is under enrolled, though - it’s also South County and Lake Braddock. Both of which are quite near to WSHS’s borders. LB and WSHS also share a split feeder in Sangster. Point is, if WSHS complains about overcrowding (which there is no indication is real at this point in time) there’s an easy fix in dumping their split feeder entirely to LB, thus decreasing eventual enrollment at WSHS by 100-200 I’m guessing. That would also fit with the “stated” and “on paper” goal of reducing split feeders and attendance islands. In fact, that’s such a no brainer that it would seem very suspicious if that’s not what ends up happening.

Nope. That would only work if you got rid of AAP. Name an AAP school for WSHS that’s isn’t Sangster.

If they plan to get rid of AAP in 4 years, a Sangster shift might work

You really don't know anything about tge area you are pushing to rezone.

Keene Mill Elementary is the other WSHS AAP center.

I know that….it also has an island bordering Lake Braddock boundary that people forget about. Also, is the one school Hunt Valley parents want to throw to Lewis to save themselves.

I don't think pointing out the geography of area is throwing Keene Mill to Lewis.

Geography is Geography.

I don't think that the school board should rezone WSHS, especially since they are using inflated numbers to justify rezoning.

But if they are going to rezone under the guise of saving transportation funds, then they need to consider geography, which puts the 2 closest schools to Lewis with adjacent borders to Lewis, West Springfield Elementary and Keene Mill Elementary, in the forefront of consideration.

Putting the farthest elementary school from Lewis on busses and driving them past 4 WSHS zoned elementary schools, plus 3 Lewis zoned elementary schools, past the mixing bowl and through the literal Franconia Metro Station exit traffic makes no sense.

Don’t think so. If you are already on a bus to middle and high, easier to move. Nothing changes. Keene Walks to Irving, they aren’t touching that. Also, like a PP mentioned….cant remove one of the only AAP centers. Especially if they shift Sangster to Lake Braddock.

Nice try though.

This argument is really grasping for straws.

A 10 minute bus ride down OKM to the elementary schools adjacent to Lewis.

Or a 30 minute bus ride if the traffic cooperates for Hunt Valley.

If you were arguing that Hunt Valley should go to SoCo, you might have some merit.

But HV to Lewis is absurd.

Right! If we are looking to fix under enrollment at Lewis then let's look at the populations that are 5 minutes away from Lewis but zoned for other high schools. The western boundary of Lewis that extends to the intersection of FFX County Pkwy/Franconia springfield pkway is a stretch, would love to hear from those families and how it's impacted their community and their involvement at Lewis.

Just googled hunt valley es to Lewis: 9 minutes
Hunt valley es to WSHS: 7 minutes

Keep going. Google Bren Mar, Lane, etc etc. All the other schools zoned for other HS’s but closer.

Your crusade is just weird Saratoga Savior.

No dog in this fight, but google maps leaving now shows there to be about a 5 minute difference to get to Lewis from WSES, HV, and RV, all under 20.

That part of the parkway flows in the AM. There are some bad lights by Springfield mall, but also on OKM. It really is negligible.

Aside from that HV is the least diverse and lowest FARMs school in the pyramid. Not sure that matters, but I suspect it does.

A bus leaving the HV neighborhood going to WSHS has 3 lights to deal with: right onto OKM, left onto Hillside, and the final right onto Rolling to reach the school. Or, the bus could skip Hillside and turn left onto Rolling to reach the school. That same bus has to make it through 9 lights to Lewis.

And HVES is 51.12% white as of their last May 24 stats. I see Orange Hunt sitting at 62.75% white with a higher FARMS rate. I'm not advocating for OH to be moved but let's not pretend that HVES is the least diverse and richest school in the WS pyramid.

I mean there are more lights for the Keene Mill or WSES to go from zero or one to get to WSHS to 8 or 9 lights, but seriously we are counting stop lights here. We have really tight boundaries form WSHS. Lewis is in a crap area as far as traffic is concerned. There are not great backroads and it is just outside of the mixing bowl. My biggest issue with Lewis is the traffic in the area especially since it is so comparatively easy to get to WSHS.

If Lewis does get all those new apartments proposed in Springfield they will have an influx of kids. I also agree that the the projections seem high and the board themselves said the projections aren’t all that accurate.

[Anonymous]

This thread goes in circles. Tapping out. There are like 2-3 posters infatuated with Hunt Valley going to Lewis and lots of people realizing that makes no sense whatsoever who keep getting baited by them. Godspeed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The differences for WSHS feeders is really small as far as drive time and makeup. They could send any one of them, but OH would be an island and WSES boundary is directly across the street from Irving. The others are closer to WSHS than HV and HV shares a border with Lewis. Saying one school is 5 minutes closer actually doesnt help any case and really just highlights how feasible it is. It’s no really a crapshoot.

They could cut everything off south of the parkway and send them to Saratoga, redo all the OH/HV elem boundaries, and send all of Sangster to LB. Then stop transfers out of Lewis and this would end up probably at a desired enrollment result? For both HS.

Or, you could move that chunk of HVES south of the Parkway to SCHS, which is much closer to those neighborhoods than Lewis and is under enrolled by a similar amount.

Yep that could work too, but Lewis is exhibiting more troubling signs like lower graduation rates and higher chronic absenteeism rates. I suspect the numbers of students in actual school are lower than the picture membership numbers paints. There is a tipping point study that was done that is helping drive some of these considerations that relates to FARMs numbers and a schools ability to perform as a whole. So while SoCo would be fine, it makes more sense to support Lewis at this juncture.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread goes in circles. Tapping out. There are like 2-3 posters infatuated with Hunt Valley going to Lewis and lots of people realizing that makes no sense whatsoever who keep getting baited by them. Godspeed.

It doesn’t make sense to send any schools. Just stop the transfers and revisit. But if they do send one, it’s worth considering these differences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The differences for WSHS feeders is really small as far as drive time and makeup. They could send any one of them, but OH would be an island and WSES boundary is directly across the street from Irving. The others are closer to WSHS than HV and HV shares a border with Lewis. Saying one school is 5 minutes closer actually doesnt help any case and really just highlights how feasible it is. It’s no really a crapshoot.

They could cut everything off south of the parkway and send them to Saratoga, redo all the OH/HV elem boundaries, and send all of Sangster to LB. Then stop transfers out of Lewis and this would end up probably at a desired enrollment result? For both HS.

Or, you could move that chunk of HVES south of the Parkway to SCHS, which is much closer to those neighborhoods than Lewis and is under enrolled by a similar amount.

Yep that could work too, but Lewis is exhibiting more troubling signs like lower graduation rates and higher chronic absenteeism rates. I suspect the numbers of students in actual school are lower than the picture membership numbers paints. There is a tipping point study that was done that is helping drive some of these considerations that relates to FARMs numbers and a schools ability to perform as a whole. So while SoCo would be fine, it makes more sense to support Lewis at this juncture.

Sending a “good” ES to Lewis does nothing to help the students that you are describing. It just raises a % somewhere to make it look better. Waste of time and is not an equitable solution.

[Anonymous]

I can't say that I understand why FCPS is looking at changing boundaries. Isn't the problem with Lewis is that kids that already live within Lewis's boundaries find ways not to attend Lewis--e.g., to take AP classes, Japanese, etc.? If FCPS simply switches a part of WSHS to Lewis without stopping methods of transferring, won't students within those new boundaries similarly find ways to not attend Lewis.

If you look at the latest student mobility stats (2022-2023), the schools with the highest mobility rates tend to be the ones that are more poorly regarded: Falls Church 23.10%, Justice 22.13%, Mount Vernon 20.30%, Annandale 19.86%, Lewis 19.29%, Herndon 18.36%.

Schools with the lowest mobility rates tend to be the ones that are well regarded: TJ 1.52%, Langley 4.77%, Robinson 5.51%, Madison 5.79%, Woodson 6.34%, Lake Braddock 6.44%, West Springfield 6.83%, South County 7.62%, McLean 7.86%, Oakton 7.86%.

I think that the overcrowding problem is due to the fact that it is just too easy for a motivated family to not attend a poorly ranked school, and I would look to fix that before addressing geographic boundaries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread goes in circles. Tapping out. There are like 2-3 posters infatuated with Hunt Valley going to Lewis and lots of people realizing that makes no sense whatsoever who keep getting baited by them. Godspeed.

So it is fine for the HV posters to go after Keene mill es and WSES, but not fine to give data that shows their reasoning applies to those schools as well.

How one sided.

[Anonymous]

Does anyone have the stats for pupil placements? I can never find that in the FCPS website. I’m interested to see how many students follow their AAP pyramid and pupil place to that high school to stay with their cohorts. I still think a huge program reform would be to make sure there’s a dedicated AAP center in every high school pyramid, and to either put AAP into every middle school, or drop the program at that level. The AAP clusters bounce all over the place.

Why doesn’t Wolftrap go to Westbriar to follow cohorts to Kilmer? Why does Forestville go to Forest Edge instead of Colvin Run to tie into Cooper? Why does Wales Mill go to Hunters Woods instead of Navy to feed into Carson? And those are the easy ones…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread goes in circles. Tapping out. There are like 2-3 posters infatuated with Hunt Valley going to Lewis and lots of people realizing that makes no sense whatsoever who keep getting baited by them. Godspeed.

So it is fine for the HV posters to go after Keene mill es and WSES, but not fine to give data that shows their reasoning applies to those schools as well.

How one sided.

I don’t think it makes sense to move any of the WSHS feeder ES’s to Lewis. It doesn’t solve any of the problems that exist at Lewis and only punishes kids. No kids are helped in this scenario. None. Not at Lewis and not at WSHS.

It would only be done so someone can say “Look how awesome we did, we raised graduation rates by X%”. Moving kids who were already on that path simply to get a school out of the red is laughable. It won’t fix a thing at Lewis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I live near Hunt Valley ES (I can see the school from my house). I just googled directions from HV to WSHS and from HV to Lewis at this current time- 7:37am on 7/9/24. It's 8 mins to WSHS and 13 to Lewis.

During summer vacation, one of the biggest vacation wweks of the summer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The differences for WSHS feeders is really small as far as drive time and makeup. They could send any one of them, but OH would be an island and WSES boundary is directly across the street from Irving. The others are closer to WSHS than HV and HV shares a border with Lewis. Saying one school is 5 minutes closer actually doesnt help any case and really just highlights how feasible it is. It’s no really a crapshoot.

They could cut everything off south of the parkway and send them to Saratoga, redo all the OH/HV elem boundaries, and send all of Sangster to LB. Then stop transfers out of Lewis and this would end up probably at a desired enrollment result? For both HS.

Or, you could move that chunk of HVES south of the Parkway to SCHS, which is much closer to those neighborhoods than Lewis and is under enrolled by a similar amount.

Yep that could work too, but Lewis is exhibiting more troubling signs like lower graduation rates and higher chronic absenteeism rates. I suspect the numbers of students in actual school are lower than the picture membership numbers paints. There is a tipping point study that was done that is helping drive some of these considerations that relates to FARMs numbers and a schools ability to perform as a whole. So while SoCo would be fine, it makes more sense to support Lewis at this juncture.

Sending a “good” ES to Lewis does nothing to help the students that you are describing. It just raises a % somewhere to make it look better. Waste of time and is not an equitable solution.

Ah but it props up the state testing numbers and the absenteeism rate, which secures $$$ and is therefore an acceptable solution to FCPS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I think that the overcrowding problem is due to the fact that it is just too easy for a motivated family to not attend a poorly ranked school, and I would look to fix that before addressing geographic boundaries.

And so your solution is to try and prevent those parents from sending their kids to a crappy school? The same crappy schools that many in this thread are trying to keep their kids from attending? 🥴