How do you determine safety/ targets for your kid?

[Anonymous]

Target would have a 30-70% admission rate and your kids GPA and test score in the top 50%. Safety greater than 70% admission rate and your kids GpA and test score in the top 25%. Pick 4 of each that your kid would like to attend as well as 4 reaches and you have a greater than 95% chance of not getting shut out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Naviance/Scoir was not a good predictor for my high stats DC in 2023. Safeties worked out but target not at all. Many Schools changed things up last year.

What did schools change last year?

UVA changed significantly in ED/EA/RD admissions in Big 3 schools for unhooked high stats OOS. The rejections and WL we know of were vastly out of line with the past.

Tulane suddenly decided (at ED announcement time!) to inform everyone they were cutting back on how many ED acceptances they would give out. It would have been nice if they let kids know this BEFORE they applied ED.

And generally, most T30 schools were harder than in the past for ED/EA for unhooked DC private students we know. It was almost as if they decided to push back on any advantage a full pay student might be trying to get. (I don't have a problem with this in theory, but it would help to know of this shift in advance. And it was yet another change to add to the mix in 23 after changes in 20-22 from COVID, Test Optional, Surge in applicants)

I agree with the PP up thread, who stated that these tools are misleading without knowing hooks - especially at Big 3 with many hooked classmates. I wouldn't go as far as saying they are useless - but any Big 3 unhooked student needs to think carefully about what their targets truly are. Your hooked classmates will get those spots (even if grades/tests/rigor are lower). And, I don't mean HYPSM - this includes schools like Emory, USC, Tufts, U Cal schools, small liberal arts colleges.

Some exceptions:
Chicago ED still seemed in play for strong students.
Tufts ED from GDS looked strong (not at SFS though)
NYU, Georgetown acted somewhat typically based on past Naviance/SCOIR.

Holy shit this sounds similar to this year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?

Plug in your kid's data into Collegevine. One of the best college admit engines out there. It factors in your kid's profile, how it compares to other applicants and gives you an admit probability based on that profile in addition to the college's overall admit rate. It will spit out your kid's targets, safeties and reaches based on that. We found it to be quite accurate this cycle.

For private high schools too??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

I’d like to know this too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

I’d like to know this too

Agree. What does it mean to say that CollegeVine was accurate? If chances were 60% and the applicant was admitted, does that mean it was correct? What if chances were 50% and the applicant was not admitted? Was CollegeVine wrong in that case?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing that is helpful about Naviance is it tells you how few students are truly accepted. There are schools that never accept kids from our school. So I am advising my daughter to cross them off her list. For safeties, check out the ones who come to your college fairs. Those are the schools that are actively recruiting. They WANT students from your school to apply. Talk to them, build a relationship. They can put in a good word!

This. Things can be very school specific

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?

Plug in your kid's data into Collegevine. One of the best college admit engines out there. It factors in your kid's profile, how it compares to other applicants and gives you an admit probability based on that profile in addition to the college's overall admit rate. It will spit out your kid's targets, safeties and reaches based on that. We found it to be quite accurate this cycle.

For private high schools too??

[Anonymous]

Collegevine is working great for my kid. Kid had three reaches in 20% range with a reject, WL, and admit. Waiting on 5 more reaches in RD.

Three targets were around a 50% chance and in all 3. In at safety.

In a tough private not big 3. So I think results so far pretty on the money for us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Collegevine is working great for my kid. Kid had three reaches in 20% range with a reject, WL, and admit. Waiting on 5 more reaches in RD.

Three targets were around a 50% chance and in all 3. In at safety.

In a tough private not big 3. So I think results so far pretty on the money for us.

Can you name schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

I’d like to know this too

Agree. What does it mean to say that CollegeVine was accurate? If chances were 60% and the applicant was admitted, does that mean it was correct? What if chances were 50% and the applicant was not admitted? Was CollegeVine wrong in that case?

💯
My kid got into all of the collegevine schools with over “50% chance” = safeties….

I’m wondering about the RD decisions coming (all sub 30% and many sub 20%)….

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

I’d like to know this too

Agree. What does it mean to say that CollegeVine was accurate? If chances were 60% and the applicant was admitted, does that mean it was correct? What if chances were 50% and the applicant was not admitted? Was CollegeVine wrong in that case?

💯
My kid got into all of the collegevine schools with over “50% chance” = safeties….

I’m wondering about the RD decisions coming (all sub 30% and many sub 20%)….

And deferred from super reach (7%) with many family (inc parents) legacies

Just wondering how exactly is college vine helpful?

[Anonymous]

collegevine admission chances were accurate for my student: in rolling and EA at all safeties (40% to 90% acceptance rates), in EA at 30% target (15% acceptance rate), in ED2 at 31% target that was marked a 25% reach for regular admission (13% acceptance rate), and denied at ED1 25% reach (8% acceptance rate)

[Anonymous]

Collegevine itself estimates chance of acceptance. These are not numbers plugged in from CDS. So if collegevine tells me these schools are reaches, and I only get into a few 20% chance as estimated by collegevine, then it worked for us.

A lot of this would make sense once you use the collegevine my profile page.

[Anonymous]

How does the college vine calculator group reach, high target, target and safety schools for a student? Is it a combination of accept rate and student stats? TY.