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Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS)
FCPS comprehensive boundary review
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Anonymous
I don't think anyone on here has enough information to understand exactly how the county is coming up with the numbers for any of the schools. So saying that laypeople are pointing out mistakes is a bit presumptuous. The best lay people could do is go back and look at the history of projections against the reality that was eventually realized. That is certainly fair game - feel free to do the research to see how far off they have been. Compare old CIPs to the actual enrollments five year out. The county should be doing that itself to adjust their models. There is a consistent pattern of the four grades at WSHS more than doubling the enrollment at Irving. Private (grades 1-8) to public (grades 9-12) is probably the biggest factor as the tuition for high school tends to run higher than for the lower grades. WSHS should not have many pupil placements based on the formal policy rules (outside of the children of teachers) since WS is closed to transfers. The return of some LB AAP students is a factor. Residency fraud could provide some number - I really can't imagine it is that big - but I would be happy to see it enforced. Any real decline in the lower elementary grades in WS may not show up for WSHS until years beyond the most recent CIP. |
Anonymous
Most of the Catholic school kids at Nativity, Angeles Academy and St. Bernadette continue to Catholic high school and do not go to WSHS. Saint Bernadette sends around 5 students to WSHS. |
Anonymous
There is a consistent pattern of the four grades at WSHS more than doubling the enrollment at Irving. Private (grades 1-8) to public (grades 9-12) ^^ IF FCPS did a residency check, they would likely discover that many of those are students zoned for other schools. |
Anonymous
There was a FOIA request on point last year for documents related to the CIP calculations and projections. That has been shared with a lot of folks, so I disagree with your premise that no posters have enough information to understand the underlying calculations. |
Anonymous
| Well then, sounds like WSHS parents need to push for an extensive residency check since they think that is the only explanation for the high enrollment. |
Anonymous
FCPS has a track record of underestimating the enrollment at WSHS in its projections. It's possible they are trying to correct for that and are now overshooting. |
Anonymous
Then they should have no problem pushing back and should sign up to testify at hearings on boundary changes. Unless the FOIA did not show what they thought. |
Anonymous
There is a simple reason that they consistently under project- they only count a future development when it’s broken ground. It’s a fundamental flaw in the way they project, and likely one of the reasons that the projections are consistently catastrophically bad. That deceptive practice will always underestimate projections. Pretty outrageous if you think about it. |
Anonymous
They don't even need FOIA documents if they want to point out, for example, that during the period that FCPS was investing tens of millions into expanding Herndon HS, FCPS was consistently over-estimating future enrollments at Herndon. Then, once they'd built it out to almost 2800 seats, they started making large downward adjustments, such that they are now projecting around 900 extra seats in five years. Perhaps the FOIA documents would provide more insight as to how/why they got it so wrong. |
Anonymous
The FOIA data showed the flaws that have been consistently discussed here. And who said that there haven’t been discussions? Now, whether the school board rams it through despite the myriad issues is a different story. The continued miscounts in the CIP don’t fill me with confidence that they’ll come to their senses. |
Anonymous
You are missing the point. THis is already happening. All of it. IF they double the population ( I tracked it and it increased by about 70-90 kids per grade level) from Irving to WSHS fine. That is already happening and is included in the current enrollment and level of capacity. They are doubling down on that. They are saying Irving is going up by 4% but WSHS will inflate more even counting in the fact that the population goes up more than Irving. Those numbers have already been there and are included in the current student body. They add in 100 kids, but those 100 kids are already in the current level of over capacity. Why then do they think that will increase even more NOW? It doesn’t make sense. The number of private school kids and AAP returners shouldn’t all of a sudden balloon and make WSHS so huge. |
Anonymous
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WSHS has been closed to transfers for around a decade.
According to the transfer dashboard, the transfers in have been under 30 students. I assume teachers kids Ft. Belvoir students, and German students. In 2019 the transfers in started going up, to the 30-40 range. This school year, 2024-25 the transfers in have gone up significantly, to nearly 60 students. Why are all these students transferring into WSHS, a school that is currently closed to transfers and facing an unwanted rezoning due to an enrollment jump. According to the transfer dashboard, WSHS transfers in are: 2015-2016 25 transfers in 2016-2017 27 transfers in 2017-2018 29 transfers in 2018-2019 29 transfets in 2019-2020 39 transfets in (10 student jump) 2020-2021 40 transfers in 2021-2022 53 transfers in (13 student jump) 2022-2023 48 students in 2023-2024 51 transfers in 2024-2015 58 transfers in. DOUBLE the pre covid historical transfers into WSHS. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/fcps.fts/viz/SY2024-25StudentTransfersDashboard/ReadMe |
Anonymous
Maybe, but not sure that's relevant to West Springfield, which isn't an area that's seen much new development for a long time. For example, if I do a Redfin search for sales in the WSHS district for any properties built since 2010 over the past year, I only get one hit. Even going back to properties built since 2000, I only get 17 hits. It would be more relevant to the areas that are seeing or projected to see more growth - Tysons, Reston, Town of Herndon, other areas near the new Silver Line stations outside the TOH, and areas off Route 1. For example, for the Marshall district, which has more new development, I get 94 hits for sales of properties built since 2010 over the past year and 173 for properties built since 2000. |
Anonymous
| How can anyone transfer into a closed-for-transfers school? We tried to transfer into Chantilly for Latin (not offered at our zoned school) and were told no. |
Anonymous
Nice try. You have it backwards. They are grossly overestimating the enrollment for WSHS and have for a few years. |