Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

She got the 2-1 Harris result among older women by hugely over sampling liberals. That result would be a massive shift from the 2020 and 2022 election results. It would only happen if only liberal women go to the polls and conservative women stay home. She admitted her poll could effect turnout. She is a liberal who released a poll oversampling other liberals in order to try to swing the election to Harris.

Mature women may be invisible to you but they show up and they vote and their vote count just as much as the vote of the pick-me boy in the red hat.

I guess we will see very soon.

[Anonymous]

Updated the map due to Iowa polling.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/my-map/5Ne

[Anonymous]

[img]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

Yes, exactly - I think Selzer is the only one who's captured how women are feeling and behaving

As a Democrat I never feel certain we will win. Especially after the nightmare of 2016. But I expect in the end we will see a lot more women's fingerprints on the outcome than the polls are largely representing now - Selzer aside.

That’s what makes the Selzer poll so interesting. The news has spent a good deal of time on voters who not likely to turn out or are such a small percentage (eg, Black men for Trump).

[Anonymous]

Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

She got the 2-1 Harris result among older women by hugely over sampling liberals. That result would be a massive shift from the 2020 and 2022 election results. It would only happen if only liberal women go to the polls and conservative women stay home. She admitted her poll could effect turnout. She is a liberal who released a poll oversampling other liberals in order to try to swing the election to Harris.

Exactly and this polster is one of those aging women liberals!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Updated the map due to Iowa polling.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/my-map/5Ne

This made me laugh!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

She got the 2-1 Harris result among older women by hugely over sampling liberals. That result would be a massive shift from the 2020 and 2022 election results. It would only happen if only liberal women go to the polls and conservative women stay home. She admitted her poll could effect turnout. She is a liberal who released a poll oversampling other liberals in order to try to swing the election to Harris.

Only if you count the Iowa Nikki Haley voters as liberal. There are a lot of Republican women in Iowa who are not racist or fascist and have never liked Trump. Look at the 2016 and 2024 caucuses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

A lot has happened since the 2020 election. Maybe some of the people of Iowa are not thrilled with overturning Roe or with January 6th or with the felony convictions for starters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

The Covid experience changed people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

A lot has happened since the 2020 election. Maybe some of the people of Iowa are not thrilled with overturning Roe or with January 6th or with the felony convictions for starters.

I agree with this. I’m just saying that as someone who spent months (!) talking to Iowans in 2020 —so many Iowans, so many senior citizens (and oh my word, they were the best people, even the ones who voted differently from me), these numbers are kind of eye-popping. Fingers crossed that they are correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[img]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

Yes, exactly - I think Selzer is the only one who's captured how women are feeling and behaving

As a Democrat I never feel certain we will win. Especially after the nightmare of 2016. But I expect in the end we will see a lot more women's fingerprints on the outcome than the polls are largely representing now - Selzer aside.

That’s what makes the Selzer poll so interesting. The news has spent a good deal of time on voters who not likely to turn out or are such a small percentage (eg, Black men for Trump).

Yes, the discussion has revolved around Black men and the Latino vote and how they were turning to Trump. Ive seen some version of this again and again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat flipped four times from 2006 to 2020.

Correction: District did not flip in 4 consecutive elections but flipped 4 times in 14 years.