Consolidated VA Elections Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When are people going to learn that voters supporting the Democrat are not going to show up in the middle of a pandemic to a political rally?

It didn’t happen for Biden in 2020. Didn’t happen during the California recall. And now it’s not happening for McAulliffe.

I have no desire to attend a rally while my toddler is still unvaccinated. Meanwhile, I quietly make my donations around the country and cast my vote locally.

Keep thinking that rally size means anything. All it tells me is that those not worried about a pandemic support Youngkin. No shocker there.

To be fair, they could be fully vaccinated. However, yes, Biden's campaign showed that a candidate (at least a Dem one) does not need to leave their house to effectively campaign and win an election. Another problem I see is that the pictures show lots of middle aged white people showing up for Youngkin. There's a shocker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Someone asked about reputable pollsters.

I follow quite a few.

Check out Frank Luntz. He’s nationally known pollster. He said yesterday, based on historical data, 80% prediction for Youngkin. I about fell out of my chair.

You can see a video of the comment on his Twitter (he posted it yesterday afternoon). He can explain his reasoning/analysis better than I can explain it here.

This is copied from his tweet: “ I told @TeamCavuto this afternoon that @GlennYoungkin
has an 80% chance of winning next week’s gubernatorial race in Virginia.”

That was me - anyone giving hourly or multiple times a day updates on where they see things going?

Luntz's video was great, thanks! Explains how with Youngkin gains every day why FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics placed in the lead today. The margin will be even higher tomorrow.

Polls far out away do not have any relevance to the election results. Polls close to the election, what's the point of following them? You can just wait until the election, and maybe instead of following the polls, volunteer for the candidate you support and help him win.

[Anonymous]

Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:


“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.


TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Someone asked about reputable pollsters.

I follow quite a few.

Check out Frank Luntz. He’s nationally known pollster. He said yesterday, based on historical data, 80% prediction for Youngkin. I about fell out of my chair.

You can see a video of the comment on his Twitter (he posted it yesterday afternoon). He can explain his reasoning/analysis better than I can explain it here.

This is copied from his tweet: “ I told @TeamCavuto this afternoon that @GlennYoungkin
has an 80% chance of winning next week’s gubernatorial race in Virginia.”

That was me - anyone giving hourly or multiple times a day updates on where they see things going?

Luntz's video was great, thanks! Explains how with Youngkin gains every day why FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics placed in the lead today. The margin will be even higher tomorrow.

Polls far out away do not have any relevance to the election results. Polls close to the election, what's the point of following them? You can just wait until the election, and maybe instead of following the polls, volunteer for the candidate you support and help him win.

No thanks - I'm an armchair quarterback sort of person. And I follow them for the same reason McAuliffe and Youngkin's teams are absolutely glued to polls and GOTV numbers right now. Its a predictor and seals an election - especially the closer we get and more data comes in. Right now a million votes have already been cast that cannot be taken back. A million more between now and booths closing on Tuesday.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:

“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.

TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

Well 2024 is going to be a doozy. A current and a former president challenging each other? Never been done before...I don't think. Teddy Roosevelt tried to come back after being ousted but I think he was running against an open field?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Someone asked about reputable pollsters.

I follow quite a few.

Check out Frank Luntz. He’s nationally known pollster. He said yesterday, based on historical data, 80% prediction for Youngkin. I about fell out of my chair.

You can see a video of the comment on his Twitter (he posted it yesterday afternoon). He can explain his reasoning/analysis better than I can explain it here.

This is copied from his tweet: “ I told @TeamCavuto this afternoon that @GlennYoungkin
has an 80% chance of winning next week’s gubernatorial race in Virginia.”

That was me - anyone giving hourly or multiple times a day updates on where they see things going?

Luntz's video was great, thanks! Explains how with Youngkin gains every day why FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics placed in the lead today. The margin will be even higher tomorrow.

Polls far out away do not have any relevance to the election results. Polls close to the election, what's the point of following them? You can just wait until the election, and maybe instead of following the polls, volunteer for the candidate you support and help him win.

No thanks - I'm an armchair quarterback sort of person. And I follow them for the same reason McAuliffe and Youngkin's teams are absolutely glued to polls and GOTV numbers right now. Its a predictor and seals an election - especially the closer we get and more data comes in. Right now a million votes have already been cast that cannot be taken back. A million more between now and booths closing on Tuesday.

+1. Same here. I enjoy following the race.

BTW, I’ve read predictions up to 2.3 million total votes is possible. (There were 2.8 million total votes in 2020, for reference.). It will be interesting to see ho many turnout.

[Anonymous]

Now, this is funny......

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Now, this is funny......

I wish I knew how make these videos. Ha ha.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:

“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.

TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

Well 2024 is going to be a doozy. A current and a former president challenging each other? Never been done before...I don't think. Teddy Roosevelt tried to come back after being ousted but I think he was running against an open field?

Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison in 1892.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:

“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.

TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

Well 2024 is going to be a doozy. A current and a former president challenging each other? Never been done before...I don't think. Teddy Roosevelt tried to come back after being ousted but I think he was running against an open field?

Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison in 1892.

See this is why I love DCUM. So many smart commenters (as long as you avoid the nuts in the relationship forum). I checked the 1892 election and it seems Cleveland (the former President) won.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:

“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.

TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

Well 2024 is going to be a doozy. A current and a former president challenging each other? Never been done before...I don't think. Teddy Roosevelt tried to come back after being ousted but I think he was running against an open field?

Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison in 1892.

Was he the one who immediately died?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:

“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.

TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

Well 2024 is going to be a doozy. A current and a former president challenging each other? Never been done before...I don't think. Teddy Roosevelt tried to come back after being ousted but I think he was running against an open field?

Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison in 1892.

Was he the one who immediately died?

William Henry Harrison is that Harrison. His grandson is Benjamin Harrison and he served his whole term before losing to Cleveland who served two non-consecutive terms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m a conservative, but I also read a lot of news from liberal pollsters. They seemed to be mainly concerned about extremely low turnout in Norfolk/Newport News area. The numbers coming out of early voting from that area are very bad (that’s why McAuliffe was there yesterday and today).

Another good source I check daily is vpap.org. Click on the “Early Voting” tab. You can see turnout by county, comparisons with 2020 and 2017 elections, etc.’

Dave Wasserman is another reputable political analyst. He has posted a spreadsheet of the percentages Youngkin needs to hit in each county to beat McAuliffe.

Younking getting huge crowed in Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Chesapeake. I don't know if this is because Miyares is local there and very liked or other reasons, but the number of support for him is unprecedented in Hampton Roads.

Look at the crowd. Same exact inbred mouthbreathers that were at the other rallies around the state. They are literally bussing the same crowds all over the state to make it look like the Hedgefund Hero can draw a crowd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz just posted this:

“In close elections, how do undecideds break?

Answer: 2 to 1 for the challenger.

TerryMcAuliffe is considered an incumbent from having already been governor. That’s why polls show late-deciders moving to
@GlennYoungkin.

Well 2024 is going to be a doozy. A current and a former president challenging each other? Never been done before...I don't think. Teddy Roosevelt tried to come back after being ousted but I think he was running against an open field?

Teddy Roosevelt’s comeback bid was against the incumbent President William Howard Taft. They were both defeated by Woodrow Wilson.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:CNN is calling Mcauliffe allllll the way out

A bunch of people at CNN need to get fired, RFN.