FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They inexplicably modified the program capacities at McLean and Herndon High. McLean supposedly decreased 58 students. Herndon High magically increased 40. That increased the percentage at McLean by over 3% and decreased the percentage at Herndon High by 2%.

Clearest signal yet that they are goosing the numbers to suit the agenda.

Maybe, but then they also reduced the enrollment projections for McLean quite a bit, which cuts in the other direction from where I think you're going.

Enrollment projections decreased based on the actual decrease in students this year, though also not as much as expected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They inexplicably modified the program capacities at McLean and Herndon High. McLean supposedly decreased 58 students. Herndon High magically increased 40. That increased the percentage at McLean by over 3% and decreased the percentage at Herndon High by 2%.

Clearest signal yet that they are goosing the numbers to suit the agenda.

Maybe, but then they also reduced the enrollment projections for McLean quite a bit, which cuts in the other direction from where I think you're going.

Enrollment projections decreased based on the actual decrease in students this year, though also not as much as expected.

The enrollment decrease this year was more than expected. The last CIP (2025-29) had McLean HS at 2473 this year and it came in at 2411 instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They inexplicably modified the program capacities at McLean and Herndon High. McLean supposedly decreased 58 students. Herndon High magically increased 40. That increased the percentage at McLean by over 3% and decreased the percentage at Herndon High by 2%.

Clearest signal yet that they are goosing the numbers to suit the agenda.

Maybe, but then they also reduced the enrollment projections for McLean quite a bit, which cuts in the other direction from where I think you're going.

Enrollment projections decreased based on the actual decrease in students this year, though also not as much as expected.

The enrollment decrease this year was more than expected. The last CIP (2025-29) had McLean HS at 2473 this year and it came in at 2411 instead.

Yep, and that decreased the projections, though not as much as anticipated. Something smells very rotten

[Anonymous]

Where can you find this CIP document

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where can you find this CIP document

https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/DCNNH95FE89E/$file/Draft%20Proposed%20CIP%20FY2026-30.pdf

[Anonymous]

Not being snarky, but I thought the Herndon HS projections were going to be increased substantially in this CIP to account for new development in the Town of Herndon. Someone made reference to an internal FCPS document that referred to new units and the potential student yield.

Doesn't seem like that happened, at least not in this draft CIP. Right now they have HHS at 1888 kids in SY 2029-30, but they just expanded the school to almost 2800 seats. And now it looks like they are going to do the same thing at Centreville. Can FCPS planning really be this atrocious?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not being snarky, but I thought the Herndon HS projections were going to be increased substantially in this CIP to account for new development in the Town of Herndon. Someone made reference to an internal FCPS document that referred to new units and the potential student yield.

Doesn't seem like that happened, at least not in this draft CIP. Right now they have HHS at 1888 kids in SY 2029-30, but they just expanded the school to almost 2800 seats. And now it looks like they are going to do the same thing at Centreville. Can FCPS planning really be this atrocious?

https://www.herndon-va.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/18830/638635435180730000

Page 91 has the Feb 24 FCPS estimate for TRG of 406-452. Town of Herndon projects 942 schoolchildren for TRG on page 88.

These projections, including FCPS’s own projections were clearly not incorporated into the CIP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not being snarky, but I thought the Herndon HS projections were going to be increased substantially in this CIP to account for new development in the Town of Herndon. Someone made reference to an internal FCPS document that referred to new units and the potential student yield.

Doesn't seem like that happened, at least not in this draft CIP. Right now they have HHS at 1888 kids in SY 2029-30, but they just expanded the school to almost 2800 seats. And now it looks like they are going to do the same thing at Centreville. Can FCPS planning really be this atrocious?

https://www.herndon-va.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/18830/638635435180730000

Page 91 has the Feb 24 FCPS estimate for TRG of 406-452. Town of Herndon projects 942 schoolchildren for TRG on page 88.

These projections, including FCPS’s own projections were clearly not incorporated into the CIP.

Got it. It appears the developments just aren't far enough along in the process for FCPS to factor them into the five-year projections in the CIP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not being snarky, but I thought the Herndon HS projections were going to be increased substantially in this CIP to account for new development in the Town of Herndon. Someone made reference to an internal FCPS document that referred to new units and the potential student yield.

Doesn't seem like that happened, at least not in this draft CIP. Right now they have HHS at 1888 kids in SY 2029-30, but they just expanded the school to almost 2800 seats. And now it looks like they are going to do the same thing at Centreville. Can FCPS planning really be this atrocious?

https://www.herndon-va.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/18830/638635435180730000

Page 91 has the Feb 24 FCPS estimate for TRG of 406-452. Town of Herndon projects 942 schoolchildren for TRG on page 88.

These projections, including FCPS’s own projections were clearly not incorporated into the CIP.

Got it. It appears the developments just aren't far enough along in the process for FCPS to factor them into the five-year projections in the CIP.

Over 1,000 of those housing units projected by 2030, which, by my calculation, is five years away. They are just manipulating the data to suit their purposes at this point.

[Anonymous]

West Springfield is now projected to be at 3000 students and TWICE the size of Lewis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to cross-post this on this thread in addition to the thread on the upcoming CIP hearing, since someone already reacted that the information in the draft 2026-30 CIP supports putting any boundary changes on hold:

"The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account."

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.


Where are they coming up with these numbers?!?

There is ZERO new development for WSHS and the upcoming classes are all smaller than the corresponding graduating classes, in some cases by 100 students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:West Springfield is now projected to be at 3000 students and TWICE the size of Lewis.

Those enrollment figures are outright lies

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to cross-post this on this thread in addition to the thread on the upcoming CIP hearing, since someone already reacted that the information in the draft 2026-30 CIP supports putting any boundary changes on hold:

"The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account."

Another waste of money is the Brookfield ES and Lee's Corner ES expansions. Both schools are right next to each other with I believe declining enrollment for the past decade or so. Once completed, both schools are projected to have capacity in the mid 50s.

[Anonymous]

I hope the real community representatives of the Boundary Review Advisory Committee (the ones randomly selected, not the special interest hand picked), see through the CIP numbers and will ask the hard questions about the numbers always seeming to move in the direction to support certain boundary changes.

I’ve seen posts from BRAC members on here. I urge any of you reading these posts to question why several key program capacity memberships moved in suspicious directions and why they don’t seem to factor in any growth for Herndon, when FCPS’s own estimate is that the TRG development will bring in 406-452 FCPS students and the Town of Herndon projects a thousand housing units by 2030.

Please look into this. You are your community’s only voice among a sea of special interest members brought in to the committee to advance the SB’s agenda.

[Anonymous]

Once again people. I know math is hard but the K-12 student population is going to decline over the next several years. New developments don’t create kids. The US birth rate is declining. There will be no great influx of kids into these new developments and half or more will go to private schools.

Get rid of IB, get rid of AAP, math problem solved. Provide resources to educate kids to their full potential or continue with this charade and watch FCPS crumble.

While not PC to do so, people also need to understand that a number of students currently in FCPS will be leaving due to migration out of FCPS further reducing student numbers.