Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

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09/14/2023 00:15

Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

quote

Anonymous

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:still we think its inevitable? maybe throwing a few more billions at it will resolve it??

Yes. Likely not, since Sweden and others are stepping up. The panic is finally setting in with the Kremlin.

"Russia's economic development ministry just raised its inflation forecast for this year from 5.3% to 7.5%"
"The ministry did not appear to have provided a reason for the hike."
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-inflation-forecast-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-ruble-interest-2023-9

Instead of Russian Central Bank inflation forecasts going down, it jumped by 50% in just a month? Remember this is occurring after Saudi Arabia extended the production cuts to drive oil prices up, making Russian oil more valuable; and after the Russian central bank halted all foreign currency exchange through December. But economy isn't the only bad news.

"Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, has promised a "tough response" and "punishment" for trying to "finish off" the Crimean Bridge."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-foreign-ministry-threatens-response-084106995.html

This shows the level of desperation within minds of the Russian hierarchy. My guess is that the sons of many upper-level officials are probably stationed in Crimea where it's relatively "safe" away from the front lines. It is clear that once the Crimea Bridge is destroyed, the civilians would be forced to evacuate. Once that happens, Russian military logistics will be disrupted or even might shut down for, likely, at least one full week? It also means that Russian troops will be largely left alone in the city, so easier to target versus hiding amongst civilians and their children.

Even Solovyov was a bit defensive and angry today, defending himself against an op-ed written by Valery Garbuzov, former Director of the US and Canada Studies Institute (ISKRAN), Russia’s Academy of Sciences (a leading Russian think tank, similar to Rand or Mitre). The article compared Solovyov's program to Goebbels Nazi propaganda.

"I despise you as an enemy. Because you dared accuse my program and myself of lies, primitive lies."
"New hashtag; I will f*** you up, dirtbags!"
https://www.stopfake.org/en/woe-to-my-enemies-rages-russia-s-mouthpiece-in-chief/

"The Kupyansk front was unusually quiet over the last 24 hours as not a single combat operation took place"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-combat-operations-reported-kupyansk-125700097.html

There's usually a few possible explainations, the most likely ones being "conserving ammunition", "fortifying defenses" or "preparing a counter attack"?

"Russia is planning to carry out widespread mobilization in both its own territory and the areas of Ukraine it temporarily occupies. The General Staff estimates 400,000 to 700,000 enemy personnel could be called up."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/over-270-000-russian-military-084000992.html

This also shows the level of desperation regarding the military situation on the ground. I believe that Russia is currently (officially) supposed to be at 2.4M call-up? I'm a little dubious whether the 2.4M is accurate, since I read they're still trying to conscript tens-of-thousands a month?

However, if that 2.4M number is correct, then the higher end of this last mobilization (700k) should be enough to put them over the top and initiate a wide-spread shut down of key sectors of the Russian economy (e.g. once they hit the 3M call-up point of working males removed from the labor force and placed into uniform). Although Putin believes that reversion back to Stalinist economics is sustainable, I personally believe he has underestimated the secondary effects it will have on a technologically-based society.

A full mobilization of 700k will also be far more difficult for Putin to continue to spin as a "Special Military Operation". Putin will also have difficulty finding election opponents to run against, since anyone there knows that opposing Putin publicly is a death sentence. With the elections coming up in March, I'm curious how this will be portrayed within the press?

I'm still guessing that January will be the 18 mos mark for the 3M'ish call-up, with about a year for the economic impacts to play out, and the final 6 months with disintegration of authority. Overall, still holding to the estimate of about 22 months out for the collapse of Russia as we know it. There are a few factors that would add or subtract from this estimate (ex. Putin's health, Saudi Arabia intervening, etc.) but even with the rabbits that the Kremlin have pulled out of the hat so far, there aren't many avenues left. Time is running out for Putin's Russia.

I think you underestimate the Russian people’s expectations not to lose. North Korea can put a million artillery shells in Russia in a week. Probably a million rifles and 10 million rounds for those rifles to fire.

Most likely at a 30-40% failure rate but who knows?

I do not see an imminent collapse. I see Ukraine getting smarter, faster - and Russia hitting over 1,000,000 KIA before they stop.

It may have to be higher; but Russians are (like Patton stated) more Asian than European. They do not know surrender until told it is acceptable by their “god”; in this case Putin.