Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Has anybody heard of any of the cross border raids into Russia in the last few months?

Seems like they stopped right around the Wagner mutiny.
Did they all get killed? Or maybe being used for something else?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:still we think its inevitable? maybe throwing a few more billions at it will resolve it??

Yes. Likely not, since Sweden and others are stepping up. The panic is finally setting in with the Kremlin.

"Russia's economic development ministry just raised its inflation forecast for this year from 5.3% to 7.5%"
"The ministry did not appear to have provided a reason for the hike."
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-inflation-forecast-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-ruble-interest-2023-9

Instead of Russian Central Bank inflation forecasts going down, it jumped by 50% in just a month? Remember this is occurring after Saudi Arabia extended the production cuts to drive oil prices up, making Russian oil more valuable; and after the Russian central bank halted all foreign currency exchange through December. But economy isn't the only bad news.

"Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, has promised a "tough response" and "punishment" for trying to "finish off" the Crimean Bridge."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-foreign-ministry-threatens-response-084106995.html

This shows the level of desperation within minds of the Russian hierarchy. My guess is that the sons of many upper-level officials are probably stationed in Crimea where it's relatively "safe" away from the front lines. It is clear that once the Crimea Bridge is destroyed, the civilians would be forced to evacuate. Once that happens, Russian military logistics will be disrupted or even might shut down for, likely, at least one full week? It also means that Russian troops will be largely left alone in the city, so easier to target versus hiding amongst civilians and their children.

Even Solovyov was a bit defensive and angry today, defending himself against an op-ed written by Valery Garbuzov, former Director of the US and Canada Studies Institute (ISKRAN), Russia’s Academy of Sciences (a leading Russian think tank, similar to Rand or Mitre). The article compared Solovyov's program to Goebbels Nazi propaganda.

"I despise you as an enemy. Because you dared accuse my program and myself of lies, primitive lies."
"New hashtag; I will f*** you up, dirtbags!"
https://www.stopfake.org/en/woe-to-my-enemies-rages-russia-s-mouthpiece-in-chief/

"The Kupyansk front was unusually quiet over the last 24 hours as not a single combat operation took place"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-combat-operations-reported-kupyansk-125700097.html

There's usually a few possible explainations, the most likely ones being "conserving ammunition", "fortifying defenses" or "preparing a counter attack"?

"Russia is planning to carry out widespread mobilization in both its own territory and the areas of Ukraine it temporarily occupies. The General Staff estimates 400,000 to 700,000 enemy personnel could be called up."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/over-270-000-russian-military-084000992.html

This also shows the level of desperation regarding the military situation on the ground. I believe that Russia is currently (officially) supposed to be at 2.4M call-up? I'm a little dubious whether the 2.4M is accurate, since I read they're still trying to conscript tens-of-thousands a month?

However, if that 2.4M number is correct, then the higher end of this last mobilization (700k) should be enough to put them over the top and initiate a wide-spread shut down of key sectors of the Russian economy (e.g. once they hit the 3M call-up point of working males removed from the labor force and placed into uniform). Although Putin believes that reversion back to Stalinist economics is sustainable, I personally believe he has underestimated the secondary effects it will have on a technologically-based society.

A full mobilization of 700k will also be far more difficult for Putin to continue to spin as a "Special Military Operation". Putin will also have difficulty finding election opponents to run against, since anyone there knows that opposing Putin publicly is a death sentence. With the elections coming up in March, I'm curious how this will be portrayed within the press?

I'm still guessing that January will be the 18 mos mark for the 3M'ish call-up, with about a year for the economic impacts to play out, and the final 6 months with disintegration of authority. Overall, still holding to the estimate of about 22 months out for the collapse of Russia as we know it. There are a few factors that would add or subtract from this estimate (ex. Putin's health, Saudi Arabia intervening, etc.) but even with the rabbits that the Kremlin have pulled out of the hat so far, there aren't many avenues left. Time is running out for Putin's Russia.

I think you underestimate the Russian people’s expectations not to lose. North Korea can put a million artillery shells in Russia in a week. Probably a million rifles and 10 million rounds for those rifles to fire.

Most likely at a 30-40% failure rate but who knows?

I do not see an imminent collapse. I see Ukraine getting smarter, faster - and Russia hitting over 1,000,000 KIA before they stop.

It may have to be higher; but Russians are (like Patton stated) more Asian than European. They do not know surrender until told it is acceptable by their “god”; in this case Putin.

Hmm. Sorry to burst your bubble but..

The party train started out well..

"Their rich meal started with speciality dumplings made with Kamchatka crab, White Amur fish soup and a sorbet from sea buckthorn, a deciduous shrub – all washed down with red and white wines from the Divnomorskoe manor in Southern Russia, according to a Kremlin reporter. The main course offered a choice of sturgeon with mushrooms and potatoes or an entrecote of marbled beef with grilled vegetables, followed by a calorific dessert of red bilberries from the taiga with pine nuts and condensed milk."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-kim-hold-talks-feast-071832550.html

..then Kim reached for the Pepto..

"Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said he wasn’t sure how long the North Korean delegation would stay in Russia but there would not be any more meetings between Putin and Kim. “This is their prerogative”
"News agencies had reported that the two leaders would also tour a nearby arms factory and inspect the Pacific Fleet moored at Vladivostok but these tours appear to have been cancelled."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-gives-kim-jong-un-162904552.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Has anybody heard of any of the cross border raids into Russia in the last few months?

Seems like they stopped right around the Wagner mutiny.
Did they all get killed? Or maybe being used for something else?

Mmm. Unless Ukraine has developed a new 700 km range attack drone, my guess is there isn't crossing anymore. Just full-time occupation?

""Agents from various spheres were involved: civilians, servicemen of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and workers of the repair plant (the last stage of repair of one of the targets was taking place there). The consequences of the work in the end were that the large amphibious assault ship Minsk and the submarine Rostov-on-Don were "successfully hit," said the partisans."
https://ukranews.com/en/news/955574-it-became-known-who-helped-strike-russian-ship-and-submarine-in-the-sevastopol-bay

"Footage coming from Saratov, located about 700 kilometers east of Kharkiv, showed a large explosion. Local sources say the explosion occurred on a gas pipeline. East of Saratov is also an airport that has been attacked in the past and is home to Russian strategic aviation. It is the only airbase used by the Tu-160 bombers as well as the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3."
https://slovenia.postsen.com/world/166652/Big-explosions-in-Russia-and-Crimea.html

The more troops that are called up, the fewer troops there are to monitor Russia's interior. It's a big country with an ever-decreasing population per sq km.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fun find of the day, this time on the propaganda front: https://www.rt.com/news/582930-poland-media-paid-ukraine/

Looks like the US Consulate is giving grants to Poles who write favorable stories about Ukrainian refugees.

Feel free to apply directly here: https://pl.usembassy.gov/education-culture/grants/

Can't wait to see the winners pop up in this thread.

Russia literally pays for RT.com to exist. So apparently you have no problem with any of this.

LOL how do you think Voice of America pays its bills?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fun find of the day, this time on the propaganda front: https://www.rt.com/news/582930-poland-media-paid-ukraine/

Looks like the US Consulate is giving grants to Poles who write favorable stories about Ukrainian refugees.

Feel free to apply directly here: https://pl.usembassy.gov/education-culture/grants/

Can't wait to see the winners pop up in this thread.

Russia literally pays for RT.com to exist. So apparently you have no problem with any of this.

LOL how do you think Voice of America pays its bills?

I don't go around citing VOA for my information.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

It just 3 ships, the biggest blow is to the entire Black Sea fleet.

You see, Russia relied 100% on that Crimean facility for all the maintenance on every ship in the Black Sea.

Now that whole fleet is essentially on “life support.”

And the ships were mostly built either in Poland, or - wait for it:

Ukraine.

Russia can’t replace them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: It just 3 ships, the biggest blow is to the entire Black Sea fleet.

You see, Russia relied 100% on that Crimean facility for all the maintenance on every ship in the Black Sea.

Now that whole fleet is essentially on “life support.”

And the ships were mostly built either in Poland, or - wait for it:

Ukraine.

Russia can’t replace them.

As you said, they can’t service them either. At least reliably and safely. The port is damaged and no longer protected by long range radar.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: It just 3 ships, the biggest blow is to the entire Black Sea fleet.

You see, Russia relied 100% on that Crimean facility for all the maintenance on every ship in the Black Sea.

Now that whole fleet is essentially on “life support.”

And the ships were mostly built either in Poland, or - wait for it:

Ukraine.

Russia can’t replace them.

As you said, they can’t service them either. At least reliably and safely. The port is damaged and no longer protected by long range radar.

Has anyone seen damage photos? Usually a port is pretty big. Hard to imagine a few drones could put the whole thing out of commission.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: It just 3 ships, the biggest blow is to the entire Black Sea fleet.

You see, Russia relied 100% on that Crimean facility for all the maintenance on every ship in the Black Sea.

Now that whole fleet is essentially on “life support.”

And the ships were mostly built either in Poland, or - wait for it:

Ukraine.

Russia can’t replace them.

As you said, they can’t service them either. At least reliably and safely. The port is damaged and no longer protected by long range radar.

Has anyone seen damage photos? Usually a port is pretty big. Hard to imagine a few drones could put the whole thing out of commission.

This was either the Ukrainian-invented and manufactured Nuptune missile (which the Ukrainians used to sink the Moskva) or the 1970s era Storm Shadow cruise missile.

Hitting the dry-dock was a brilliant idea, and the ships were certain to be there, the dock was a much bigger target, and the Russians are super-careless about leaving acetylene and fuel out in the open next to the boats.

[Anonymous]

There cannot be any doubt whatsoever of systematic Russian war crimes against the people of Ukraine:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting documented war crimes (by Russia)

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas

I could only read part of that….Russians are animals

I think the real takeaway from that article is that Russian troops commit fewer crimes than DC's resident criminal class over the same time period.

Nah - not even DC is this bad :
“ The soldier took her to a classroom on the second floor, where he pointed a gun at her and told her to undress. She said: “He told me to give him [oral sex]. The whole time he held the gun near my temple or put it into my face. Twice he shot at the ceiling and said it was to give me more ‘motivation.’” He raped her, then told her to sit on a chair.”

“ Three bodies were on one side of the building, but not my son and brother-in-law. We walked around to the other side and saw [Bohdan and Sasha, and one more]. They were laying there. There were gunshots to their heads. Their hands were tied behind their backs. I looked at my son’s body, his pockets were empty, he didn’t have his phone, or keys or [identity] documents”

Methinks many Russians will be in war crimes courts if they are not (ideally) already dead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting documented war crimes (by Russia)

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas

I could only read part of that….Russians are animals

I think the real takeaway from that article is that Russian troops commit fewer crimes than DC's resident criminal class over the same time period.

Nah - not even DC is this bad :
“ The soldier took her to a classroom on the second floor, where he pointed a gun at her and told her to undress. She said: “He told me to give him [oral sex]. The whole time he held the gun near my temple or put it into my face. Twice he shot at the ceiling and said it was to give me more ‘motivation.’” He raped her, then told her to sit on a chair.”

“ Three bodies were on one side of the building, but not my son and brother-in-law. We walked around to the other side and saw [Bohdan and Sasha, and one more]. They were laying there. There were gunshots to their heads. Their hands were tied behind their backs. I looked at my son’s body, his pockets were empty, he didn’t have his phone, or keys or [identity] documents”

Methinks many Russians will be in war crimes courts if they are not (ideally) already dead.

I wonder if the Russian soldiers realized yet where they will be vacationing in the next 5 to 10 years? Won't be in Turkey, or Rome, or Paris, or Berlin, or Miami, or London. Nope. Given the war crimes that Russian soldiers have racked up, just a scan of a passport and they'll be hauled off to a War Crimes court for trial. They'd be extradited for war crimes. Sure, maybe the Officers can swing a 6-hour flight from Moscow to Egypt (just be careful of Tiger Sharks), but for the regular soldiers iiiitts Sochi! Imagine fighting the crowd to book reservations within a three-month window year after year just to lie down on pebble and rock beaches. There's always the ever-fun Lake Baikal! "even though much of the lake's surface freezes over for up to five months of the year. For about a month around August, the lake's water temperature can reach around 16 degrees Celsius, making it suitable for quick dips or short swims. During the rest of the year, however, it usually stays under five degrees Celsius" And don't forget Moscow in the Winter! Enjoy!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting documented war crimes (by Russia)

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas

I could only read part of that….Russians are animals

I think the real takeaway from that article is that Russian troops commit fewer crimes than DC's resident criminal class over the same time period.

Nah - not even DC is this bad :
“ The soldier took her to a classroom on the second floor, where he pointed a gun at her and told her to undress. She said: “He told me to give him [oral sex]. The whole time he held the gun near my temple or put it into my face. Twice he shot at the ceiling and said it was to give me more ‘motivation.’” He raped her, then told her to sit on a chair.”

“ Three bodies were on one side of the building, but not my son and brother-in-law. We walked around to the other side and saw [Bohdan and Sasha, and one more]. They were laying there. There were gunshots to their heads. Their hands were tied behind their backs. I looked at my son’s body, his pockets were empty, he didn’t have his phone, or keys or [identity] documents”

Methinks many Russians will be in war crimes courts if they are not (ideally) already dead.

I wonder if the Russian soldiers realized yet where they will be vacationing in the next 5 to 10 years? Won't be in Turkey, or Rome, or Paris, or Berlin, or Miami, or London. Nope. Given the war crimes that Russian soldiers have racked up, just a scan of a passport and they'll be hauled off to a War Crimes court for trial. They'd be extradited for war crimes. Sure, maybe the Officers can swing a 6-hour flight from Moscow to Egypt (just be careful of Tiger Sharks), but for the regular soldiers iiiitts Sochi! Imagine fighting the crowd to book reservations within a three-month window year after year just to lie down on pebble and rock beaches. There's always the ever-fun Lake Baikal! "even though much of the lake's surface freezes over for up to five months of the year. For about a month around August, the lake's water temperature can reach around 16 degrees Celsius, making it suitable for quick dips or short swims. During the rest of the year, however, it usually stays under five degrees Celsius" And don't forget Moscow in the Winter! Enjoy!

LOL what an active fantasy life you have.

Did you read that feature on Forte de Marmi, a deluxe resort town in Italy that exists due to the Russian, Ukrainian, etc. largesse?

We were in Turkey in July. It is positively brimming with Russians, Istanbul, Mediterranean, Aegean, anywhere. Even ice cream kiosks in Cappadocia have signs in Russian.

And little soldiers, I'm sorry to burst your bubble, never vacationed overseas before the war, either.

Money will always be welcome everywhere.

[Anonymous]

How long before the Russians have to simply abandon the Black Sea? They're just going to keep getting picked off without means for repair.

"A Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) hit a Samum-class missile carrier hovercraft on Thursday, 14 September.

Details: The sources said the SSU's SeaBaby USV hit the Samum near the entry to Sevastopol Bay.

The USV hit the rear right side of the vessel, causing significant damage, which resulted in the ship losing power.

The sources stated that the Russians had to tow the Samum away for repairs "with a significant tilt at the stern and listing to starboard"."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-seababy-drone-hits-russian-135708142.html