| My sister is a war vet and ICU nurse at the hospital where MD just had its first corona death. She was there when he died on Wednesday and called to tell me how shaken up she was. She said they're not overwhelmed yet, but they are already rationing masks and gear and having to reuse masks multiple times. They have canceled all elective surgeries to conserve ventilators. She is so pissed at all of these fools still out and about. It's not about us contracting the virus and surviving, it's about not overwhelming an already crippled healthcare system with cases that could easily have been avoided if healthy people had just stayed the f*ck home for a few weeks so that hospitals can focus their time and resources on critical care patients. |
This virus increases exponentially. New York now has over 5700 cases! |
Ny has been testing several thousand people a day since early this week. Mortality rate .7 percent there. |
This is more the norm on our area. Really wish people wouldn’t put much stock in anonymous people on the internet with an agenda. |
Say it with me now: BECAUSE THEY ARE TESTING MORE. |
Pp is not anonymous? |
| The “good news” story in NY is that they are testing. Expect CA to jump in numbers soon. I live here and know sick (and healthy) people who would like to be tested but we can’t yet. Until you see the numbers jump dramatically the data won’t be accurate. |
+1. Best friend is an ER nurse in Fairfax County. Said they are still just on standby. |
Yep, they ordered 40,000 kits for NYC and set up testing checkpoints, especailly in hard-hit areas (for example, the Orthodox Jewish community where they kept holding weddings this weekend) |
If we estimate the dmv population at 6 million, then 0.7% is 42,000 deaths. |
A dr from nyc was on the today show or something weeks ago. And we still have selfish idiots on this website trying to say things are not so bad from the safety of their homes. |
No model assumes 100 percent of population will get virus. |
But estimates are that an infected individual infects 2.5 people, so that’s where the exponential growth estimates come from. If you have social distancing, individuals will infect fewer people. So that’s at play as well. |
| I love - no, rather I hate and wail about - how 2 months ago, people were shrugging at Wuhan's situation, and pointing out the lack of transparency, the lack of PPE, and using those are the basis of their confidence that we'll be alright. We're doing so much worse. |
And no model suggests that you have correctly identified the mortality rate. |