OP here. I just wanted to know the odds of my kid getting into his first choice HS. Why does every single mention of DCC high schools have to devolve into a debate about magnets, DCC vs Bethesda, race, etc?
To answer OP's question her child's odds seems to depend on their race. From the Metis "First choice rates in the DCC lottery varied by student subgroup. For example, 80.7% of Hispanic/Latino students received their first choice, while 72.1% of Black/African American, 73.9% of White, and 59.1% of Asian students did."
In another section the Metis report did mention court cases in the 90s when MCPS lost discrimination law suits brought forward for being denied transfers because of racial balancing tactics. Looks like this is still going on and MCPS just counts on Asians not wanting to spend money on law suits.
That statistic is completely meaningless without knowing the base school for each student and whether or not they put it as their first choice. For example, it could be that Hispanic students are just more likely to list their base school as first choice (which guarantees they get it) than other students. It could also mean mean that every Asian kid in the DCC put Blair as their first choice, but only those in the home base for Blair can actually get in.