DC Area Housing Bubble?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where else but in DC can I get a SFH for $900K within 15 minutes on the bus to my office on K Street and within the nuclear fallout zone of the White House? For $900K, I'd be living in Long Island, Westchester County, or NJ with a 90 minute commute and paying $22K a year in taxes. In Seattle or SF I would be faaaaaaar my office at the price or cramming my future kids into a crappy 2BR apartment in Oakland. In London, I'd be living in Croydon and faced with a packed Tube ride into the city. Same goes for Paris. In Switzerland, I wouldn't even be able to get a decent apartment at that price due to the premium on ownership (thank god for their strict rent control).

For anyone who has never lived in a world class, international city DC probably seems expensive. But it's a god damn bargain compared to most major cities, taxes are relatively low, and we get all the best services because it's the seat of the most powerful government on earth.

This is where I think the posters here are wrong.

DC is fine and good but it is a podunk compared to those other cities you mention. I'm not saying that I don't love it, I live here! That said, people will never place a premium on Washington, DC the same way they place a premium on NYC or London. Incomparable in every way.

[Anonymous]

http://www.updater.com/blog/updater-releases-top-15-moving-destinations-2017

in 2017, Washington dc metro area probably gives you the best deals in the world regarding house price and income.

income House Price
Washington DC $95,843 $397,000
Dallas TX $63,812 $295,000
Los Angeles: $65,950 $463,600
NYC $71,897 $425,000
Atlanta $62,613 $232,000
San Francisco $96,677 $688,000
Chicago $66,020 $239,000

London, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Beijing are much worse

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where else but in DC can I get a SFH for $900K within 15 minutes on the bus to my office on K Street and within the nuclear fallout zone of the White House? For $900K, I'd be living in Long Island, Westchester County, or NJ with a 90 minute commute and paying $22K a year in taxes. In Seattle or SF I would be faaaaaaar my office at the price or cramming my future kids into a crappy 2BR apartment in Oakland. In London, I'd be living in Croydon and faced with a packed Tube ride into the city. Same goes for Paris. In Switzerland, I wouldn't even be able to get a decent apartment at that price due to the premium on ownership (thank god for their strict rent control).

For anyone who has never lived in a world class, international city DC probably seems expensive. But it's a god damn bargain compared to most major cities, taxes are relatively low, and we get all the best services because it's the seat of the most powerful government on earth.

This is where I think the posters here are wrong.

DC is fine and good but it is a podunk compared to those other cities you mention. I'm not saying that I don't love it, I live here! That said, people will never place a premium on Washington, DC the same way they place a premium on NYC or London. Incomparable in every way.

Right but it's still a bargain to live here and there are JOBS. PP is referring to her job on K Street. Many of us earn the same salaries we would in cities like NY or London.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

Ah....”they arent building any more land in my neighborhood”..... i figure some idiot was going to bring this up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

The years immediately before the graph starts (1980’s) were also a time of huge increases, by 1991 that bubble had been punctured and things were flat in the 1990’s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

Ah....”they arent building any more land in my neighborhood”..... i figure some idiot was going to bring this up.

Why is he or she an idiot? Do you truly not believe in supply and demand?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where else but in DC can I get a SFH for $900K within 15 minutes on the bus to my office on K Street and within the nuclear fallout zone of the White House? For $900K, I'd be living in Long Island, Westchester County, or NJ with a 90 minute commute and paying $22K a year in taxes. In Seattle or SF I would be faaaaaaar my office at the price or cramming my future kids into a crappy 2BR apartment in Oakland. In London, I'd be living in Croydon and faced with a packed Tube ride into the city. Same goes for Paris. In Switzerland, I wouldn't even be able to get a decent apartment at that price due to the premium on ownership (thank god for their strict rent control).

For anyone who has never lived in a world class, international city DC probably seems expensive. But it's a god damn bargain compared to most major cities, taxes are relatively low, and we get all the best services because it's the seat of the most powerful government on earth.

This is where I think the posters here are wrong.

DC is fine and good but it is a podunk compared to those other cities you mention. I'm not saying that I don't love it, I live here! That said, people will never place a premium on Washington, DC the same way they place a premium on NYC or London. Incomparable in every way.

DC is "Podunk" compared to Westchester? Tenafly? Long Island? Oakland or South SF? Braintree or Somerville? Because that's where you'd be living if you had $900K and wanted to get a SFH for your family. Let's compare like to like.

Undoubtedly it's better to be stupid wealthy in NYC or SF than DC. But most people in those cities don't get to enjoy a nice home or all the expensive amenities. In DC, your money goes further. The little guy in DC is not nearly on the rat race treadmill as my friends in NYC, SF, or Londoon. Most of them are still renting into their 30s and 40s. My life is so much more comfortable here: physically, financially, and culturally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

Ah....”they arent building any more land in my neighborhood”..... i figure some idiot was going to bring this up.

What this chart didn't tell you is that in early 1990s, the mortgage rates were around 10% while in year 2016, they were less than 4%. So the housing affordability is very different even with the same income....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

Right, but this doesn't mean the DC housing market is in a bubble, which is what this thread is about. The DC housing market isn't heavily correlated to how attractive DC is to tourists.

Although this thread has gotten a bit off topic, I think the point was that DC is not comparable to other iconic cultural hubs around the world, and so cannot expect to command the very high sustained prices that one sees in those markets (hence the current bubble).

Agreed. But DC doesn't have real estate prices anywhere remotely close to iconic cities. DC is still a bargain especially considering the job opportunities and salaries. We easily make 400k here and bought a three bedroom home with a yard with a short commute for less than $1 million. Try doing that in an "iconic city."

It's not a bargain for an iconic city. It is in a different category as it is not an iconic city. There is a difference between a bargain price for a Birkin and a Michael Kors bag.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where else but in DC can I get a SFH for $900K within 15 minutes on the bus to my office on K Street and within the nuclear fallout zone of the White House? For $900K, I'd be living in Long Island, Westchester County, or NJ with a 90 minute commute and paying $22K a year in taxes. In Seattle or SF I would be faaaaaaar my office at the price or cramming my future kids into a crappy 2BR apartment in Oakland. In London, I'd be living in Croydon and faced with a packed Tube ride into the city. Same goes for Paris. In Switzerland, I wouldn't even be able to get a decent apartment at that price due to the premium on ownership (thank god for their strict rent control).

For anyone who has never lived in a world class, international city DC probably seems expensive. But it's a god damn bargain compared to most major cities, taxes are relatively low, and we get all the best services because it's the seat of the most powerful government on earth.

Where else?

Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston. All of whom have larger economies than D.C.

[Anonymous]

Housing bubble or not, the DC fetishizing in this thread is over the top.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

Ah....”they arent building any more land in my neighborhood”..... i figure some idiot was going to bring this up.

What this chart didn't tell you is that in early 1990s, the mortgage rates were around 10% while in year 2016, they were less than 4%. So the housing affordability is very different even with the same income....

You seem to think interest rates have something to do with home prices. They don’t.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Housing bubble or not, the DC fetishizing in this thread is over the top.

+1

We've been on the fence about buying for several reasons (mostly because we weren't committed to staying here). Some of the pro-DC points have merit, but ultimately I would like to leave because this area has a serious nasty streak.

[Anonymous]

The DC area economy/real estate is stabilized by the Federal Government. This area is different than other big cities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing bubble or not, the DC fetishizing in this thread is over the top.

+1

We've been on the fence about buying for several reasons (mostly because we weren't committed to staying here). Some of the pro-DC points have merit, but ultimately I would like to leave because this area has a serious nasty streak.

Nasty is kind.

Meanest people I've encountered since the ROK troops in Vietnam