DC Area Housing Bubble?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

Right, but this doesn't mean the DC housing market is in a bubble, which is what this thread is about. The DC housing market isn't heavily correlated to how attractive DC is to tourists.

Although this thread has gotten a bit off topic, I think the point was that DC is not comparable to other iconic cultural hubs around the world, and so cannot expect to command the very high sustained prices that one sees in those markets (hence the current bubble).

Agreed. But DC doesn't have real estate prices anywhere remotely close to iconic cities. DC is still a bargain especially considering the job opportunities and salaries. We easily make 400k here and bought a three bedroom home with a yard with a short commute for less than $1 million. Try doing that in an "iconic city."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As I noted in another thread, a WTOP article from October notes that the median sale price in DC in September was down six percent from a year ago, and that was before the new tax code and last week's interest rate hike. The bleeding is just beginning.

Oh, you are the OP of THAT thread.

Nope, just shared the same observation.

I believe I read an article that said Arlington was up from the preivious year.

[Anonymous]

^^ I think the issue here is that some people don't understand that DC isn't that expensive. They must have never lived in higher COL cities so it seems expensive to them. This is why they think it's a bubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^^ I think the issue here is that some people don't understand that DC isn't that expensive. They must have never lived in higher COL cities so it seems expensive to them. This is why they think it's a bubble.

Yup, exactly.

Sincerely,
Someone who has lived in LA, NYC, and Zurich

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ I think the issue here is that some people don't understand that DC isn't that expensive. They must have never lived in higher COL cities so it seems expensive to them. This is why they think it's a bubble.

Yup, exactly.

Sincerely,
Someone who has lived in LA, NYC, and Zurich

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

Right, but this doesn't mean the DC housing market is in a bubble, which is what this thread is about. The DC housing market isn't heavily correlated to how attractive DC is to tourists.

Although this thread has gotten a bit off topic, I think the point was that DC is not comparable to other iconic cultural hubs around the world, and so cannot expect to command the very high sustained prices that one sees in those markets (hence the current bubble).

Agreed. But DC doesn't have real estate prices anywhere remotely close to iconic cities. DC is still a bargain especially considering the job opportunities and salaries. We easily make 400k here and bought a three bedroom home with a yard with a short commute for less than $1 million. Try doing that in an "iconic city."

No doubt that the much lower population density in the DC area as compared to NYC and other world cities still allows for close in homes with yards, although it's questionable whether $1 million is really affordable. If the zoning regulations were changed to permit more high density units in more areas (as we are seeing in Tysons, Mosaic, etc.) then prices would fall even further to the benefit of those currently making long commutes. Will happen eventually, as it should.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ I think the issue here is that some people don't understand that DC isn't that expensive. They must have never lived in higher COL cities so it seems expensive to them. This is why they think it's a bubble.

Yup, exactly.

Sincerely,
Someone who has lived in LA, NYC, and Zurich

Biglaw and lobbying money is a fraction of Hollywood money and investment bank money. The fundamentals are different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

The point is it's not a bubble if you can buy a three bedroom close in house for $1 million.

Right, but this doesn't mean the DC housing market is in a bubble, which is what this thread is about. The DC housing market isn't heavily correlated to how attractive DC is to tourists.

Although this thread has gotten a bit off topic, I think the point was that DC is not comparable to other iconic cultural hubs around the world, and so cannot expect to command the very high sustained prices that one sees in those markets (hence the current bubble).

Agreed. But DC doesn't have real estate prices anywhere remotely close to iconic cities. DC is still a bargain especially considering the job opportunities and salaries. We easily make 400k here and bought a three bedroom home with a yard with a short commute for less than $1 million. Try doing that in an "iconic city."

No doubt that the much lower population density in the DC area as compared to NYC and other world cities still allows for close in homes with yards, although it's questionable whether $1 million is really affordable. If the zoning regulations were changed to permit more high density units in more areas (as we are seeing in Tysons, Mosaic, etc.) then prices would fall even further to the benefit of those currently making long commutes. Will happen eventually, as it should.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ I think the issue here is that some people don't understand that DC isn't that expensive. They must have never lived in higher COL cities so it seems expensive to them. This is why they think it's a bubble.

Yup, exactly.

Sincerely,
Someone who has lived in LA, NYC, and Zurich

Biglaw and lobbying money is a fraction of Hollywood money and investment bank money. The fundamentals are different.

And Dc is a much much smaller city!

[Anonymous]

There is no bubble.

That is not to say you won't lose a little value here and there but you are wasting your time if you are expecting a sharp decline across the board


Population is growing, region is growing, it's supply and demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is no bubble.

That is not to say you won't lose a little value here and there but you are wasting your time if you are expecting a sharp decline across the board


Population is growing, region is growing, it's supply and demand.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is no bubble.

That is not to say you won't lose a little value here and there but you are wasting your time if you are expecting a sharp decline across the board


Population is growing, region is growing, it's supply and demand.

So you think prices will stay the same even with significantly higher interest rates? Because from what I can tell, many people already stretch the limits of their income to buy starter homes in close in areas. Those people would have to buy further out if interest rates go up but prices stay the same. Then the question is whether there are enough buyers with deep pockets to replace them. The amount of unsold new builds suggests there are not.

It might not be a bubble in the current low interest environment, but that could easily change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is no bubble.

That is not to say you won't lose a little value here and there but you are wasting your time if you are expecting a sharp decline across the board


Population is growing, region is growing, it's supply and demand.

So you think prices will stay the same even with significantly higher interest rates? Because from what I can tell, many people already stretch the limits of their income to buy starter homes in close in areas. Those people would have to buy further out if interest rates go up but prices stay the same. Then the question is whether there are enough buyers with deep pockets to replace them. The amount of unsold new builds suggests there are not.

It might not be a bubble in the current low interest environment, but that could easily change.

I don't see a lot of pressure from interest rates. Assuming interest only to make the math easier and a 750K mortgage assuming somebody stays under the interest cap, you are looking at $600 per month of increase per point BEFORE interest deductions. Of course 3 points will move home values but a point - no way. At the same time, a 3 point move and lower values would decrease supply because people couldn't afford to sell - restrict supply and you help to stabilize price.

If you buy a house thinking the value will only move up, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. If, however, you have a 5-7 year horizon, I think there will always be a good time to buy and a good time to sell within that window.

[Anonymous]

Where else but in DC can I get a SFH for $900K within 15 minutes on the bus to my office on K Street and within the nuclear fallout zone of the White House? For $900K, I'd be living in Long Island, Westchester County, or NJ with a 90 minute commute and paying $22K a year in taxes. In Seattle or SF I would be faaaaaaar my office at the price or cramming my future kids into a crappy 2BR apartment in Oakland. In London, I'd be living in Croydon and faced with a packed Tube ride into the city. Same goes for Paris. In Switzerland, I wouldn't even be able to get a decent apartment at that price due to the premium on ownership (thank god for their strict rent control).

For anyone who has never lived in a world class, international city DC probably seems expensive. But it's a god damn bargain compared to most major cities, taxes are relatively low, and we get all the best services because it's the seat of the most powerful government on earth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As mortgage interest rates go up and taxes increase, homes will increasingly become more expensive. If interest rate reach 5% next year, those that locked in at 3.25% would likely struggle to comfortably afford their own homes today, especially when you factor in home value appreciation.

OP how do you factor in “home value appreciation” if, as you claim, there will be depreciation?