DC Area Housing Bubble?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

DC is not on the level of any of those cities And it never will be. Paris is the closest in size to DC, but Paris has significantly more density than DC. You’d have to tear down all the single family homes in DC and put up apartment blocks to match Paris density. However, the transit system in the Paris area is beyond anything we have in the US. It’s not obligatory to live in central Paris to have a short commute.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

DC is not on the level of any of those cities And it never will be. Paris is the closest in size to DC, but Paris has significantly more density than DC. You’d have to tear down all the single family homes in DC and put up apartment blocks to match Paris density. However, the transit system in the Paris area is beyond anything we have in the US. It’s not obligatory to live in central Paris to have a short commute.

Zürich is smaller than DC.

[Anonymous]

There is no bubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

DC is not on the level of any of those cities And it never will be. Paris is the closest in size to DC, but Paris has significantly more density than DC. You’d have to tear down all the single family homes in DC and put up apartment blocks to match Paris density. However, the transit system in the Paris area is beyond anything we have in the US. It’s not obligatory to live in central Paris to have a short commute.

Zürich is smaller than DC.

Not to mention that size or density don't necessarily matter for housing prices. What matters are jobs and how many people want to live in a particular place.

[Anonymous]

As I noted in another thread, a WTOP article from October notes that the median sale price in DC in September was down six percent from a year ago, and that was before the new tax code and last week's interest rate hike. The bleeding is just beginning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've read countless posts that say something like: "The DC area is growing in population rapidly. There's not enough near in residential property being built, so values will continue to rise unfettered. People don't want to live in suburbs anymore, and DC will resemble San Francisco, London, Hong Kong, Vancouver, etc. in the next 10-20 years. Buy now or you'll never be able to afford to live here."

There seems to be so much certainty on the part of so many of you, that this is only the beginning of a sustained period of growth and gentrification in DC. I don't see how this is a reality, when many metro areas around rest the country are seeing significantly higher growth rates due to a lower cost of living and lower costs to do business. Additionally, population inflow has slowed in the DC region, and slowed in DC proper as well. High paying salaries are here in concentration, but this is not unique to DC, and high paying jobs have ALWAYS been here.

As mortgage interest rates go up and taxes increase, homes will increasingly become more expensive. If interest rate reach 5% next year, those that locked in at 3.25% would likely struggle to comfortably afford their own homes today, especially when you factor in home value appreciation.

It seems like housing prices increased too quickly and too dramatically.

Does anyone share similar concerns?

I don't think it is a bubble but I do think that prices will flatten out.
1. Population growth in DC has slowed. Now more people are leaving than coming. As the economy gets better nationally and people have more job opportunities elsewhere this will continue to be the case. That said there would have to be very drastic/catastrophic changes for the government and defense sectors to collapse.
2. A lot of D.C. Boosters insist that over time everyone will move into the cities and the suburbs will become poverty infested hellscapes like in Paris. But there are reasons to think that is untrue. In other parts of the country there has been a continued influx of young professionals (example Denver suburbs). Additionally, there is the school issue.
3. Home ownership will likely get more expensive or be perceived as more expensive in light of interest rate changes and the tax bill.

That said I do not want DC to resemble SF because that is definitely a bubble. Housing stock artificially kept low but rumblings from Sacramento that they might intro legislation to change that. SF also has some of the highest rates of property crime in the United States because of the massive homeless population which has risen as rents have risen. The whole regional economy is tied to Tech. And when you visit SF there are no children anywhere. It is eerie.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As I noted in another thread, a WTOP article from October notes that the median sale price in DC in September was down six percent from a year ago, and that was before the new tax code and last week's interest rate hike. The bleeding is just beginning.

Oh, you are the OP of THAT thread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As I noted in another thread, a WTOP article from October notes that the median sale price in DC in September was down six percent from a year ago, and that was before the new tax code and last week's interest rate hike. The bleeding is just beginning.

Oh, you are the OP of THAT thread.

Nope, just shared the same observation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

DC is not on the level of any of those cities And it never will be. Paris is the closest in size to DC, but Paris has significantly more density than DC. You’d have to tear down all the single family homes in DC and put up apartment blocks to match Paris density. However, the transit system in the Paris area is beyond anything we have in the US. It’s not obligatory to live in central Paris to have a short commute.

Well the largest French embassy in the world is in DC. You might not think DC is important, but the French certainly do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

Right, but this doesn't mean the DC housing market is in a bubble, which is what this thread is about. The DC housing market isn't heavily correlated to how attractive DC is to tourists.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Lord, I love D.C. As much as the next person but it is not in the same league as any of those cities (also the Capital of Canada is Ottawa and the capital of Switzerland is Bern). All those international capitals (plus NYC, Toronto, and Zurich) are the cultural center of their countries. Most are also the financial centers and largest city in their respective nations. DC is not the biggest city in the U.S. and is certainly not the biggest national economy. I wouldn't even say it is the cultural center but that could be something others disagree with. So no, the housing shouldn't be priced like cities that are those things. That's apples to oranges.

Agreed. I find it very amusing when residents of DC somehow believe they are on par with residents of those other cities. Don't get out much I guess.

You're delusional if you think the US capital isn't important and that its economy isn't vastly more important than the economy of Rome, Vienna, etc.

And that means what exactly? Yes, yes, thanks to George Washington, every nation must maintain a diplomatic presence in DC, and some are quite large. That doesn't mean though that people in other parts of the world want to move to (or even visit) DC. Try going abroad and telling people you live in DC. Nine times out of ten their reaction is "Wow, America, I would love to visit New York someday."

Right, but this doesn't mean the DC housing market is in a bubble, which is what this thread is about. The DC housing market isn't heavily correlated to how attractive DC is to tourists.

Although this thread has gotten a bit off topic, I think the point was that DC is not comparable to other iconic cultural hubs around the world, and so cannot expect to command the very high sustained prices that one sees in those markets (hence the current bubble).