Here comes the “dip”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are down 2%.

The GFC saw drops of 7%. Wake me up when we drop 5%

20-30% really - this is just noise right now

We can’t even drop 30% in a day right?

U.S. market-wide circuit breakers can trigger at different levels, specifically at declines of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2), and 20% (Level 3) in the S&P 500 Index:
Trading Halt Durations:

Level 1 and Level 2: If triggered before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading is halted for 15 minutes. If triggered at or after this time, trading will continue without a halt.
Level 3: This level halts trading for the remainder of the trading day, regardless of the time it is triggered.

Of course, but yes this did happen frequently during COVID & 2008. If people are panicking after just a couple down days, they are in the wrong asset classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are literally killing our markets, economy and servicemen and women for Israel. I don't understand how more people aren't outraged.

There is a LOT of money to be made in war, and Silicon Valley has pivoted back to its Fairchild roots and is queuing up to provide all sorts of warfighter solutions.

Blood money.

[Anonymous]

The sheer ignorance on this thread is alarming.

[Anonymous]

When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are literally killing our markets, economy and servicemen and women for Israel. I don't understand how more people aren't outraged.

I am, but you may buy see it because I have been outraged for the past year (see Musk government dismantling, extortion of our crown jewel research institutions, undermining freedom of the press, blatent corruption, Kennedy lunacy, Hegseth chest pounding, Noem disregard for due processes , Trump family corruption, White House ballroom, Gaza’s war crimes, US extrajudicial killings…).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

Oil prices are INCREDIBLY volatile! They go up/down all the time so you lost me at the first sentence.

[Anonymous]

Bondi - where's that DOW 50,000!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

Oil prices are INCREDIBLY volatile! They go up/down all the time so you lost me at the first sentence.

No you don't get it, they are greedy. That's all you need to keep prices up, that's basic economics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are down 2%.

The GFC saw drops of 7%. Wake me up when we drop 5%

20-30% really - this is just noise right now

We can’t even drop 30% in a day right?

U.S. market-wide circuit breakers can trigger at different levels, specifically at declines of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2), and 20% (Level 3) in the S&P 500 Index:
Trading Halt Durations:

Level 1 and Level 2: If triggered before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading is halted for 15 minutes. If triggered at or after this time, trading will continue without a halt.
Level 3: This level halts trading for the remainder of the trading day, regardless of the time it is triggered.

Of course, but yes this did happen frequently during COVID & 2008. If people are panicking after just a couple down days, they are in the wrong asset classes.

No they did not. Circuit breakers tripped once in 1997 from AFC. And then 4 times in March 2020. And none were 20% ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

Oil prices are INCREDIBLY volatile! They go up/down all the time so you lost me at the first sentence.

PP here. You are correct. I should have framed it better. Basically what I wanted to say was that OPEC will be incentivized to keep prices high by not increasing output as much as Asia and Europe may need once the conflict is over. And China has about 12 months of reserves but India has only 2 months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are down 2%.

The GFC saw drops of 7%. Wake me up when we drop 5%

20-30% really - this is just noise right now

We can’t even drop 30% in a day right?

U.S. market-wide circuit breakers can trigger at different levels, specifically at declines of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2), and 20% (Level 3) in the S&P 500 Index:
Trading Halt Durations:

Level 1 and Level 2: If triggered before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading is halted for 15 minutes. If triggered at or after this time, trading will continue without a halt.
Level 3: This level halts trading for the remainder of the trading day, regardless of the time it is triggered.

Of course, but yes this did happen frequently during COVID & 2008. If people are panicking after just a couple down days, they are in the wrong asset classes.

No they did not. Circuit breakers tripped once in 1997 from AFC. And then 4 times in March 2020. And none were 20% ever.

I never said 20% in one day, but we had far greater than 20-30% draw downs. Not sure why you are focused on one day. It's not like 1 or 2 -2% days signify anything other than noise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are down 2%.

The GFC saw drops of 7%. Wake me up when we drop 5%

Now not even down 1%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

Oil prices are INCREDIBLY volatile! They go up/down all the time so you lost me at the first sentence.

PP here. You are correct. I should have framed it better. Basically what I wanted to say was that OPEC will be incentivized to keep prices high by not increasing output as much as Asia and Europe may need once the conflict is over. And China has about 12 months of reserves but India has only 2 months.

OPEC has much less pricing power now than they did 20 years ago, mostly because of the much higher production in North America. The US now produces twice as much oil as Saudi Arabia annually.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

Oil prices are INCREDIBLY volatile! They go up/down all the time so you lost me at the first sentence.

No sh*t. I guess someone forgot about May 2020 when oil prices were negative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When oil price goes up it's very hard to bring it down. Even when things go back to normal don't expect the lower prices we have been seeing. The players in this business are extremely greedy. This will worsen inflation if you add the effects of tariffs which are still to come.

I hate being gloomy. I am a very optimistic person and I want to stay this way. But I don't want to be delusional either.

People also need to understand that the policy choice of this administration was to supercharge the economy in the short term while ignoring debt. Unfortunately the economy failed to take off like a rocket engine. Yes it probably took of like a Toyota Supra perhaps. In my opinion this is the most catastrophic scenario. We did everything to supercharge and juice up the economy. We took off all guardrails, regulations you name it. And what do we have to show for? If this is the best the economy can give us under this juice up stimulus we are royalty f**d

Oil prices are INCREDIBLY volatile! They go up/down all the time so you lost me at the first sentence.

PP here. You are correct. I should have framed it better. Basically what I wanted to say was that OPEC will be incentivized to keep prices high by not increasing output as much as Asia and Europe may need once the conflict is over. And China has about 12 months of reserves but India has only 2 months.

OPEC has much less pricing power now than they did 20 years ago, mostly because of the much higher production in North America. The US now produces twice as much oil as Saudi Arabia annually.

The world also has newly liberated Venezuelan oil (crappy as it may be).