Working in big tech and the writing on the wall for our kids

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Suck on it, dad. Turns out being a horse girl was smart all along because you can't replace that with AI and billionaires will always have horses and need staff for them!

Westworld and blade runner replaced animals

Good argument. Smart.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Childcare workers to help children socialize with each other. As long as people producing babies, need for some level of child care. Or doggie care if people no longer want humans.

Adopt a kid, there are countless family-less kids.

Plant a garden

Ai children can be self sufficient

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll believe it when I see it.

AI still hallucinates like crazy and needs a lot of prompt engineering and training to do anything useful.

The notion that AI can replace “the vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs” is kind of laughable.

Yes, it will replace some things.

But it is very unlikely to replace the “vast majority” of people.

You're wrong. Google anything about this and read. This is a real thing that is happening.

Ok, let’s take one example.

Explain to me how AI will replace lawyers.

I’m not talking about AI being incorporated into legal workflows.

I mean a world in which we have no lawyers because AI is doing all legal work.

Will an AI agent represent a client in court?

What about doctors? Professors?

Will kids enter a classroom and be taught by an AI agent?

AI is not going to release all layers and doctors etc. but it’s going to greatly diminish the numbers of them.

Instead of 5 attorneys writing briefs you have AI write 5 briefs and then 1 attorney fact/law check it. Also while there are hallucinations now, exponential learning means AI will improve faster than we can adapt.

You will still have doctors, but they will be using AI to scour your treatment records and medical journals plus do much of your charting. Insurance companies will now expect doctors to see more patients more quickly. And this is already happening with PE getting into owning medical practices.

There are going to be fewer a fewer paths for normal people to build wealth and have professional careers.

I am a first gen college grad turned lawyer. My dad moved from blue collar to managerial blue collar work and my mom was a SAHM. I became a lawyer. I had hoped my kids will have a similar income and lifestyle as me, so I find it depressing that just 1 generation later they are now being expected to go into blue collar work again. The ownership class is going to keep us laboring for them as cheaply as they can and supplement heavily with AI unless we start legislating something soon.

This is such a great example of how the tech guys don't understand other fields that aren't structured like tech and don't scale like tech.

Law is not predominantly brief writing, and you do not write a brief (or anything else) in a closed box. Yes, there will be changes and probably efficiencies with new tech, just as email and word processing replaced most courier services and typing pools. But you will not see significantly fewer lawyers, sorry.

And, I don't think law is special in that way. I think most industries are dissimilar to tech.

I think it is more similar than you think. In my company, we’ve reduced headcount of lawyers because we don’t need as many. The number isn’t significant in my company (maybe reduction of 5 people right now), but multiply across companies, and parts of the company (it’s definitely not just legal where this is happening) and it will have a meaningful impact on jobs

+1 I'm an attorney and practice in an area that should be safe. If I were a trusts and estates attorney, I'd be very concerned. There's zero reason to pay an attorney to draft those documents when AI can do it for you. The days of enormous hourly rates are also going to be over because clients certainly aren't going to want to pay those fees anymore, even if they still want an attorney.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Keyboards replaced typewriters

The next thing is coming. Don't fear too much.

+1 My sister was a secretary, who did shorthand and typed out letters. That became obsolete with word processors. So, my sister pivoted to something else.

My FIL who was an accountant lamented computers and how it was going to destroy accounting jobs. He hated computers. But, look what happened.

Every tech revolution causes a pivot, and there are birth pains, but then new types of jobs arise.

Right now, there's a bit of "AI Washing" in terms of layoffs. Executives are using the "we replaced our workers with AI"excuse when the real reason was they just overhired and need to contract. But, it sounds better if you say, "Look at us.. we're the masters of AI use".

Having stated that, you will need AI skills to get a job. The definition of "entry level" has changed in the age of AI. Young people are better at pivoting to AI than older workers. Basically, you'd better know how to use AI effectively if you want a job.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll believe it when I see it.

AI still hallucinates like crazy and needs a lot of prompt engineering and training to do anything useful.

The notion that AI can replace “the vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs” is kind of laughable.

Yes, it will replace some things.

But it is very unlikely to replace the “vast majority” of people.

You're wrong. Google anything about this and read. This is a real thing that is happening.

Ok, let’s take one example.

Explain to me how AI will replace lawyers.

I’m not talking about AI being incorporated into legal workflows.

I mean a world in which we have no lawyers because AI is doing all legal work.

Will an AI agent represent a client in court?

What about doctors? Professors?

Will kids enter a classroom and be taught by an AI agent?

I have these questions, too.

And I think AI largely sucks right now. It gives my elementary kid the wrong answer on math problems in class (why are they using it in school for young kids??). It hallucinates citations for papers I did not write. And it cannot reliably answer basic questions about things like, “did X restaurant permanently close?”

However, rich & powerful people want it take over everything, so it probably will, with disastrous results that go beyond no one having a job.

There was that one case where Deloitte used AI on some analysis they wrote for Australia. The doc cited sources that didn't exist. Australia got their money back.

AI is not quite there yet. AI slop is real. You still need humans to check the output.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I work in law and AI is constantly hallucinating things. How is this going to replace anyone at all?

AI is not replacing you.
People using AI will replace you.
One senior attorney using AI will do the job of 10 or more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I work in law and AI is constantly hallucinating things. How is this going to replace anyone at all?

AI is not replacing you.
People using AI will replace you.
One senior attorney using AI will do the job of 10 or more.

That is AI replacing him, you idiot.

"Airplanes won't replace ocean liners! Pilots FLYING airplanes will replace ocean liners."
Okay, then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I work in big tech and what I am learning every day about the future of AI is so so concerning when it comes to our kids future.

The vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs is about to become obsolete. Our kids will largely either vibe code their way to solopreneurship, be part of the 2% of people who might get a rare ‘corporate job’, do something you need a physical body for, learn to invest or be without income. College is going to be overhauled and in many ways no longer necessary

Jamie dimon is correct that countries need to quickly make it illegal to fire your whole workforce and replace with AI, so we can buy time to figure out what the f to do.

In the meantime we are moving and saving hard. Truly a nuts situation that I think people are only just starting to grasp

OP, I agree with you and think a large portion of DCUM is delulu about AI. A lot of it sucks NOW, sure, but think of how rapidly these technologies improve. And if a technology can make a billionaire an extra buck and save him two, they're going to invest in its improvement. They get rock-hrd about reducing headcount.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I work in big tech and what I am learning every day about the future of AI is so so concerning when it comes to our kids future.

The vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs is about to become obsolete. Our kids will largely either vibe code their way to solopreneurship, be part of the 2% of people who might get a rare ‘corporate job’, do something you need a physical body for, learn to invest or be without income. College is going to be overhauled and in many ways no longer necessary

Jamie dimon is correct that countries need to quickly make it illegal to fire your whole workforce and replace with AI, so we can buy time to figure out what the f to do.

In the meantime we are moving and saving hard. Truly a nuts situation that I think people are only just starting to grasp

OP, I agree with you and think a large portion of DCUM is delulu about AI. A lot of it sucks NOW, sure, but think of how rapidly these technologies improve. And if a technology can make a billionaire an extra buck and save him two, they're going to invest in its improvement. They get rock-hrd about reducing headcount.

And whatever headcount they can't reduce, they'll try to offshore for cheaper labor. Ain't capitalism grand? /s

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I work in big tech and what I am learning every day about the future of AI is so so concerning when it comes to our kids future.

The vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs is about to become obsolete. Our kids will largely either vibe code their way to solopreneurship, be part of the 2% of people who might get a rare ‘corporate job’, do something you need a physical body for, learn to invest or be without income. College is going to be overhauled and in many ways no longer necessary

Jamie dimon is correct that countries need to quickly make it illegal to fire your whole workforce and replace with AI, so we can buy time to figure out what the f to do.

In the meantime we are moving and saving hard. Truly a nuts situation that I think people are only just starting to grasp

OP, I agree with you and think a large portion of DCUM is delulu about AI. A lot of it sucks NOW, sure, but think of how rapidly these technologies improve. And if a technology can make a billionaire an extra buck and save him two, they're going to invest in its improvement. They get rock-hrd about reducing headcount.

And whatever headcount they can't reduce, they'll try to offshore for cheaper labor. Ain't capitalism grand? /s

There is a shortage of factory workers/software engineers/medical doctors. Therefore we need NAFTA/h1b/f1 visas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I work in law and AI is constantly hallucinating things. How is this going to replace anyone at all?

AI is not replacing you.
People using AI will replace you.
One senior attorney using AI will do the job of 10 or more.

That is AI replacing him, you idiot.

"Airplanes won't replace ocean liners! Pilots FLYING airplanes will replace ocean liners."
Okay, then.

Look at yourself in the mirror.

[Anonymous]

What about finance? Do we really need wealthy bros to move money around for other wealthy bros? That, if anything, should be 100% AI.

If nothing else, won't all the low-level analyst jobs just be AI?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll believe it when I see it.

AI still hallucinates like crazy and needs a lot of prompt engineering and training to do anything useful.

The notion that AI can replace “the vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs” is kind of laughable.

Yes, it will replace some things.

But it is very unlikely to replace the “vast majority” of people.

You're wrong. Google anything about this and read. This is a real thing that is happening.

Ok, let’s take one example.

Explain to me how AI will replace lawyers.

I’m not talking about AI being incorporated into legal workflows.

I mean a world in which we have no lawyers because AI is doing all legal work.

Will an AI agent represent a client in court?

What about doctors? Professors?

Will kids enter a classroom and be taught by an AI agent?

AI is not going to release all layers and doctors etc. but it’s going to greatly diminish the numbers of them.

Instead of 5 attorneys writing briefs you have AI write 5 briefs and then 1 attorney fact/law check it. Also while there are hallucinations now, exponential learning means AI will improve faster than we can adapt.

You will still have doctors, but they will be using AI to scour your treatment records and medical journals plus do much of your charting. Insurance companies will now expect doctors to see more patients more quickly. And this is already happening with PE getting into owning medical practices.

There are going to be fewer a fewer paths for normal people to build wealth and have professional careers.

I am a first gen college grad turned lawyer. My dad moved from blue collar to managerial blue collar work and my mom was a SAHM. I became a lawyer. I had hoped my kids will have a similar income and lifestyle as me, so I find it depressing that just 1 generation later they are now being expected to go into blue collar work again. The ownership class is going to keep us laboring for them as cheaply as they can and supplement heavily with AI unless we start legislating something soon.

This is such a great example of how the tech guys don't understand other fields that aren't structured like tech and don't scale like tech.

Law is not predominantly brief writing, and you do not write a brief (or anything else) in a closed box. Yes, there will be changes and probably efficiencies with new tech, just as email and word processing replaced most courier services and typing pools. But you will not see significantly fewer lawyers, sorry.

And, I don't think law is special in that way. I think most industries are dissimilar to tech.

I think it is more similar than you think. In my company, we’ve reduced headcount of lawyers because we don’t need as many. The number isn’t significant in my company (maybe reduction of 5 people right now), but multiply across companies, and parts of the company (it’s definitely not just legal where this is happening) and it will have a meaningful impact on jobs

+1 I'm an attorney and practice in an area that should be safe. If I were a trusts and estates attorney, I'd be very concerned. There's zero reason to pay an attorney to draft those documents when AI can do it for you. The days of enormous hourly rates are also going to be over because clients certainly aren't going to want to pay those fees anymore, even if they still want an attorney.

WSJ just had an article yesterday about how lawyer rates are higher than ever. Some are charging $3,400 an hour up from $2,500 just 18 months ago.

[Anonymous]

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/United-States-Farm-based-Horse-Population-1850-2007_fig1_254456029

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
OP, is this realization just now hitting you lol? I had this convo with my colleagues 5 years ago.

I work in big tech and have no concerns about my kids. DH and I need to be able to hold on for 10 years to retire, I am nervous about that.

My kids are young but all interested in blue collar jobs that exist in the real world, not just the digital world. They will be fine.

Blue-collar jobs are not gonna be the panacea to protect them. Who will be the customers? The five billionaires who owned the AI machines? And that’ll be so much more supply of people willing to do those jobs that the prices will be pushed way down.