Are we in a quiet recession?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

Strong "if you're not a canary, what's there to worry about" energy here.

[Anonymous]

BLS is expected to revise April 2024-May 2025 numbers down up to 800k jobs

[Anonymous]

yes. Feels strange but I'm actually getting calls from construction workers who are now looking for work. For a few years, it was impossible to get anyone to call you, unless you had a prior relationship or gave them plenty of business.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

I just got back from a long weekend in the Keys and even if it's not hitting your industry yet it's absolutely bonkers to say there are no signs of recession in Florida. Key West was a ghost town. Empty restaurants, empty streets, no traffic, shuttered businesses (some with signs on the doors announcing that they'd been open for 20+ years and will miss everyone); it felt like there was nobody anywhere. I've been there before in August and this was shocking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Plenty of trade jobs, go find a new career.

My dad is a mason. I wanted to go into masonry and my dad said absolutely no way. One time some his friends were home and we were taking about it and they were all like kid to go college get yourself a nice job in an office and don't kill yourself doing what we are doing. A lot of people who are doing manual labor don't always want their kids to do the same. And it's not for everyone. When people say trade they often mean manual labour. You think your son who spent all his time playing video games expecting to go to college barely did any manual work at home is suddenly going to be interested and find success doing manual labor?

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

Strong "if you're not a canary, what's there to worry about" energy here.

Florida is absolutely the canary in the real estate bust that’s coming.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Plenty of trade jobs, go find a new career.

My dad is a mason. I wanted to go into masonry and my dad said absolutely no way. One time some his friends were home and we were taking about it and they were all like kid to go college get yourself a nice job in an office and don't kill yourself doing what we are doing. A lot of people who are doing manual labor don't always want their kids to do the same. And it's not for everyone. When people say trade they often mean manual labour. You think your son who spent all his time playing video games expecting to go to college barely did any manual work at home is suddenly going to be interested and find success doing manual labor?

I consider myself a very hard worker and from the age of 10 I was helping my dad with many things around the house. I agree 100% that manual labor is absolutely not for everyone. People magically think that anyone can stand in the heat for hours and put nails on a roof.

Just go to any construction site, observe them for 5 minutes, think about how much they are hitting paid, how good their healthcare is and let me know if you think that's where we should send our kids.

It's unfortunately a side effect of a capitalist economy that some will be losers and other winners. Unfortunately the kids who will end in manual labour tend to come from lower income household. If we are serious about fixing it, we can easily do it via federal policy with policies that by large benefit wealthier households like many of us on this forum. My son is not going to stand in a 100 degree heat putting nails on a roof. And I think many of you think likewise and some of you just won't admit it. You know someones else kid (the kid from the middle or lower middle class) will do it

[Anonymous]

We don’t need to rely on anecdotes. Plenty of news articles on this. Yes, strong indicators of a recession coming and no, this isn’t just a Federal jobs and Fed contractors issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

I just got back from a long weekend in the Keys and even if it's not hitting your industry yet it's absolutely bonkers to say there are no signs of recession in Florida. Key West was a ghost town. Empty restaurants, empty streets, no traffic, shuttered businesses (some with signs on the doors announcing that they'd been open for 20+ years and will miss everyone); it felt like there was nobody anywhere. I've been there before in August and this was shocking.

International tourism to US is down too. Many don’t like policies of US and choose to travel elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The last bad recession was in 2008. This was almost 20 years ago. Those who invested wisely since have done incredibly well. It's been awhile since we had a major slowdown and I think in the next couple of years we will have another recession not like 08, but a bit worse than the smaller (or invisible ones) we had in between

What about for people who were kids in 2008? Were they supposed to have invested well since then?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

What high level professional jobs are in Florida? Do you work at a theme park?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Plenty of trade jobs, go find a new career.

My dad is a mason. I wanted to go into masonry and my dad said absolutely no way. One time some his friends were home and we were taking about it and they were all like kid to go college get yourself a nice job in an office and don't kill yourself doing what we are doing. A lot of people who are doing manual labor don't always want their kids to do the same. And it's not for everyone. When people say trade they often mean manual labour. You think your son who spent all his time playing video games expecting to go to college barely did any manual work at home is suddenly going to be interested and find success doing manual labor?

Architect here.
I find doing small manual labor kind of therapeutic actually but only small projects like bathroom or kitchen remodels. Busted out the torch and soldered my own pipes when the plumber messed up and didn't feel like admitting it. I also change my mind a lot while I'm doing the work. A contractor would have been pissed off at the amount of modifications to the design I tend to make.
Maybe for some people the key is to mix labor and thinking. I definitely have to invest equal time in both to get the results I'm after.
But for exterior buildings, no way, that is too much for my 117# frame. And in my 50s, this manual labor takes so much longer to recover from than when I was in my 30s. So I get that there is an expiry window for trade laborers.
But there is something very satisfying about making and solving physical things.

[Anonymous]

I know my large organization has been doing lots of layoffs this year. But they are doing it stealthily and it would be easy to miss if you aren’t hearing about it. They layoff a few people at a time, but it’s happening. I have no reason to think other large companies are behaving differently

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Plenty of trade jobs, go find a new career.

My dad is a mason. I wanted to go into masonry and my dad said absolutely no way. One time some his friends were home and we were taking about it and they were all like kid to go college get yourself a nice job in an office and don't kill yourself doing what we are doing. A lot of people who are doing manual labor don't always want their kids to do the same. And it's not for everyone. When people say trade they often mean manual labour. You think your son who spent all his time playing video games expecting to go to college barely did any manual work at home is suddenly going to be interested and find success doing manual labor?

and no one tells the truth how hard it is, the poor benefits, and lack of job security. You have to have your own company to be successful and that is much harder and more work than you expect. Also you won't have a job by the time you hit your early 50s.

[Anonymous]

I wonder how the employment data will look at the beginning of the new government fiscal year in October. Many people in the federal government took the option to voluntarily leave, but be paid thru the end of this fiscal year. Only 20% of these people are in the DC metro area. Anyone who took the summer off from looking or found a summer only job will start showing up on the books at this time. Some of these will be people who retired, but some will be people who needed to continue working and didn't anticipate the economic changes that have occurred in the meantime.