Are we in a quiet recession?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Plenty of trade jobs, go find a new career.

Trade jobs will fall too. Who do you think hires tradesmen? Homeowners, institutions, businesses. When budgets get cut, discretionary projects are the first to go.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do you people in DC, land of the feds, think that the entire US economy is having trouble just because some feds are job hunting? DC is an incredibly small part of the overall economy and what happens there is not particularly relevant to the strength of the economy as a whole. Your personal experience is a snapshot of one tiny piece of the country.

Have you driven around the country lately? So many places are economically depressed. The poverty is shocking. As for white color jobs, the job losses are DC based, they’re national. Federal workers live all over the country. Add in tech, Pharma, entertainment, tourism, finance, manufacturing, education sectors. It’s bloody.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do you people in DC, land of the feds, think that the entire US economy is having trouble just because some feds are job hunting? DC is an incredibly small part of the overall economy and what happens there is not particularly relevant to the strength of the economy as a whole. Your personal experience is a snapshot of one tiny piece of the country.

I posted on the first page. My company is based out of a square red state - we aren't feds or even fed adjacent. The idea that this is limited to people who have been DOGE'd is wishful thinking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do you people in DC, land of the feds, think that the entire US economy is having trouble just because some feds are job hunting? DC is an incredibly small part of the overall economy and what happens there is not particularly relevant to the strength of the economy as a whole. Your personal experience is a snapshot of one tiny piece of the country.

Every single day, there is news of another major company laying off more workers. Are your news sources not reporting these or are you just burying your head in the sand?

[Anonymous]

We're likely, in time, to be proven to have been at the beginning of a long period of stagflation, which is actually worse.

And it will be lied about unless and until there is regime change.

[Anonymous]

I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

[Anonymous]

We’re in a recession. It’s quiet because the data are being fudged (Trump) and an AI bubble is distorting reality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

You might never feel it yourself, PP, in your line of work. DC is impacted generally, though. It's not company-specific, it's federal and industry-specific, because the causes are federal job cuts as well as tariffs repercussions. DC is getting the federal whammy. There will be industrial and manufacturing pockets all over the US that will be impacted by tariffs. But from there to a national or global recession... it depends on the Federal Reserve reacts, and how far the Trump administration is prepared to go.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

Did you write that from the Mar a Lago ballroom?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has there ever been this much disconnect between job figures/unemployment and the true state of the economy?

I have never had this many people reached out to me either via LinkedIn or word of mouths for help finding a job.

We live in very different worlds apparently. What you’re describing is completely foreign to me.

No shit Rambo! You are doing well. Good for you.

This is an odd response to a different experience.

[Anonymous]

Absolutely we are.

[Anonymous]

I live in a major tourist destination and we’ve had 4 restaurants in the past 3 day lay off their GMs, 3 restaurants that have been here for 30+ years have closed this month, hotel rooms are averaging $150/night instead of $500. People clearly don’t have the means to travel or spend money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m in Florida. Absolutely no signs of recession here. House sales cooling down over the last year, but that was expected after the triple price increases after Covid. We could use a recession for sure, but there are hiring signs up everywhere, and I’ve had multiple friends with high level professional jobs switch employers in the last six months. This feels more like a dc thing. I’m an attorney and my work is insanely busy, large corporate clients all over the couple. I know companies are laying off, but that feels more company specific than about national trends.

Get back to us next April when Florida’s been through an entire peak tourism season under this regime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I live in a major tourist destination and we’ve had 4 restaurants in the past 3 day lay off their GMs, 3 restaurants that have been here for 30+ years have closed this month, hotel rooms are averaging $150/night instead of $500. People clearly don’t have the means to travel or spend money.

Where is this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do you people in DC, land of the feds, think that the entire US economy is having trouble just because some feds are job hunting? DC is an incredibly small part of the overall economy and what happens there is not particularly relevant to the strength of the economy as a whole. Your personal experience is a snapshot of one tiny piece of the country.

I don’t live in DC and wasn’t a Fed, but I was laid off in April. Job hunting is grim right now. There’s just not much to apply to and no response from the few I find.

People all over the country in tech, manufacturing, and higher education are being laid off. There’s domino effect will be apparent eventually.

Similar- my husband was just laid off. he is in B2B sales and companies do not want to invest in anything but AI now because of tariff uncertainty. Also was in midwest last week and auto companies announced terrible earnings outlooks due to tariffs. Suppliers and auto adjacent businesses also in a slump.