Timing the market crash and my tsp

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know. I know. You can’t time the market. However, it feels like we are getting into bubble burst territory in the coming months. That’s my feeling. If I see things on a downward trajectory I don’t want to just lose all my tsp gains and let it sit and wait for the market to sort or slowly come back up over the years like it always does.

If you think there will be a crash in a few months, or a year, because of tariffs and you have 500,000 in your tsp. 300,000 is in the I fund, the rest is in the c fund and also in BTCFX in the mutual fund window.

So if the crash and you see it begin as a series of drops over a few days or weeks, and you think it’s time to pull your money into somewhere safe within the tsp. You see stocks start to fall over a couple days and begin to think the crash you predicted is happening.

Where do you move the money quickly into a safer fund in the tsp to preserve the most amount? You know the stock market always goes back up but for now the market will probably have an extended down turn for a few years. You want the ability to keep the money safe and then buy back into one of the funds later when the market is farther down and stocks are cheaper. Would moving money into the G fund be the best place to let it sit until stock prices have fallen into a cheaper place of re-entry?

I believe in the stock market, but I believe in the cyclical nature of things. Is G fund the best place to park it?

I know for my BTCFX I would sell and park the money into a gold mutual fund in the MFW, if Bitcoin started its sort of every 4-year crypto winter crash scenario. I’d park it in gold or the money market fund for a while.

But really I am just trying to game out how to be proactive if the market appears to show an inevitable pattern of slide, or crash.

I get most people here are bogleheads and will just say: “wait it out. Don’t do anything. Get out of BTCFX now actually.” Anyway, thanks.

There are no projected issues in 2025 and 2026. Could something come out of the blue? Of course. Could Trump mess things up? Yes. But nothing so far has had an impact and the economy is quite strong.

Tariffs yet to kick in fully.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know. I know. You can’t time the market. However, it feels like we are getting into bubble burst territory in the coming months. That’s my feeling. If I see things on a downward trajectory I don’t want to just lose all my tsp gains and let it sit and wait for the market to sort or slowly come back up over the years like it always does.

If you think there will be a crash in a few months, or a year, because of tariffs and you have 500,000 in your tsp. 300,000 is in the I fund, the rest is in the c fund and also in BTCFX in the mutual fund window.

So if the crash and you see it begin as a series of drops over a few days or weeks, and you think it’s time to pull your money into somewhere safe within the tsp. You see stocks start to fall over a couple days and begin to think the crash you predicted is happening.

Where do you move the money quickly into a safer fund in the tsp to preserve the most amount? You know the stock market always goes back up but for now the market will probably have an extended down turn for a few years. You want the ability to keep the money safe and then buy back into one of the funds later when the market is farther down and stocks are cheaper. Would moving money into the G fund be the best place to let it sit until stock prices have fallen into a cheaper place of re-entry?

I believe in the stock market, but I believe in the cyclical nature of things. Is G fund the best place to park it?

I know for my BTCFX I would sell and park the money into a gold mutual fund in the MFW, if Bitcoin started its sort of every 4-year crypto winter crash scenario. I’d park it in gold or the money market fund for a while.

But really I am just trying to game out how to be proactive if the market appears to show an inevitable pattern of slide, or crash.

I get most people here are bogleheads and will just say: “wait it out. Don’t do anything. Get out of BTCFX now actually.” Anyway, thanks.

There are no projected issues in 2025 and 2026. Could something come out of the blue? Of course. Could Trump mess things up? Yes. But nothing so far has had an impact and the economy is quite strong.

NP but LOLOL.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquencies-record-high
https://www.newsweek.com/over-6-million-americans-are-late-mortgage-payments-2020687
https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/animal-care-centers-of-nyc-capacity-pet-surrenders/

Keep believing the numbers from a guy who has spent 30+ years cooking his books and replaced every public servant with loyalists with no code of ethics except "say whatever he wants to hear."

OP may not make a mint trying to time the market, but at least they're not an easy mark for some extremely obvious BS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know. I know. You can’t time the market. However, it feels like we are getting into bubble burst territory in the coming months. That’s my feeling. If I see things on a downward trajectory I don’t want to just lose all my tsp gains and let it sit and wait for the market to sort or slowly come back up over the years like it always does.

If you think there will be a crash in a few months, or a year, because of tariffs and you have 500,000 in your tsp. 300,000 is in the I fund, the rest is in the c fund and also in BTCFX in the mutual fund window.

So if the crash and you see it begin as a series of drops over a few days or weeks, and you think it’s time to pull your money into somewhere safe within the tsp. You see stocks start to fall over a couple days and begin to think the crash you predicted is happening.

Where do you move the money quickly into a safer fund in the tsp to preserve the most amount? You know the stock market always goes back up but for now the market will probably have an extended down turn for a few years. You want the ability to keep the money safe and then buy back into one of the funds later when the market is farther down and stocks are cheaper. Would moving money into the G fund be the best place to let it sit until stock prices have fallen into a cheaper place of re-entry?

I believe in the stock market, but I believe in the cyclical nature of things. Is G fund the best place to park it?

I know for my BTCFX I would sell and park the money into a gold mutual fund in the MFW, if Bitcoin started its sort of every 4-year crypto winter crash scenario. I’d park it in gold or the money market fund for a while.

But really I am just trying to game out how to be proactive if the market appears to show an inevitable pattern of slide, or crash.

I get most people here are bogleheads and will just say: “wait it out. Don’t do anything. Get out of BTCFX now actually.” Anyway, thanks.

There are no projected issues in 2025 and 2026. Could something come out of the blue? Of course. Could Trump mess things up? Yes. But nothing so far has had an impact and the economy is quite strong.

NP but LOLOL.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquencies-record-high
https://www.newsweek.com/over-6-million-americans-are-late-mortgage-payments-2020687
https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/animal-care-centers-of-nyc-capacity-pet-surrenders/

Keep believing the numbers from a guy who has spent 30+ years cooking his books and replaced every public servant with loyalists with no code of ethics except "say whatever he wants to hear."

OP may not make a mint trying to time the market, but at least they're not an easy mark for some extremely obvious BS.

Nothing Trump has done has impacted anything so far. If anything the market is lower than it should be. I doubt Trump will have any impact on the economy. If there are signs of an issue he will just change what he is doing or proposing. You have to take the politics out of this. Economy is quite strong now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been out of the market completely since 2021. Obviously, I've missed out on a lot of gains, but it doesn't bother me one bit. I don't mind missing out on money from speculative investments (which is what I consider the market at these valuations).

So you ignore basic financial planning decisions by trying to time the market, have missed out on vast sums of money based on those decisions, are content with making those risky decisions, and think that is a helpful perspective for someone about to do the exact same thing you did?

Here’s a good lesson for OP, don’t do what this person did. It’s incredibly risky to sit on cash and try buy in when the time is right. You lose to inflation and you miss out on the short period run ups that account for so much growth.

These perspectives are so nuts, particularly in light of all the debate here around the 20% Trump drop earlier this year and then how it predictably came roaring back to all time highs immediately thereafter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know. I know. You can’t time the market. However, it feels like we are getting into bubble burst territory in the coming months. That’s my feeling. If I see things on a downward trajectory I don’t want to just lose all my tsp gains and let it sit and wait for the market to sort or slowly come back up over the years like it always does.

If you think there will be a crash in a few months, or a year, because of tariffs and you have 500,000 in your tsp. 300,000 is in the I fund, the rest is in the c fund and also in BTCFX in the mutual fund window.

So if the crash and you see it begin as a series of drops over a few days or weeks, and you think it’s time to pull your money into somewhere safe within the tsp. You see stocks start to fall over a couple days and begin to think the crash you predicted is happening.

Where do you move the money quickly into a safer fund in the tsp to preserve the most amount? You know the stock market always goes back up but for now the market will probably have an extended down turn for a few years. You want the ability to keep the money safe and then buy back into one of the funds later when the market is farther down and stocks are cheaper. Would moving money into the G fund be the best place to let it sit until stock prices have fallen into a cheaper place of re-entry?

I believe in the stock market, but I believe in the cyclical nature of things. Is G fund the best place to park it?

I know for my BTCFX I would sell and park the money into a gold mutual fund in the MFW, if Bitcoin started its sort of every 4-year crypto winter crash scenario. I’d park it in gold or the money market fund for a while.

But really I am just trying to game out how to be proactive if the market appears to show an inevitable pattern of slide, or crash.

I get most people here are bogleheads and will just say: “wait it out. Don’t do anything. Get out of BTCFX now actually.” Anyway, thanks.

There are no projected issues in 2025 and 2026. Could something come out of the blue? Of course. Could Trump mess things up? Yes. But nothing so far has had an impact and the economy is quite strong.

NP but LOLOL.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquencies-record-high
https://www.newsweek.com/over-6-million-americans-are-late-mortgage-payments-2020687
https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/animal-care-centers-of-nyc-capacity-pet-surrenders/

Keep believing the numbers from a guy who has spent 30+ years cooking his books and replaced every public servant with loyalists with no code of ethics except "say whatever he wants to hear."

OP may not make a mint trying to time the market, but at least they're not an easy mark for some extremely obvious BS.

Nothing Trump has done has impacted anything so far. If anything the market is lower than it should be. I doubt Trump will have any impact on the economy. If there are signs of an issue he will just change what he is doing or proposing. You have to take the politics out of this. Economy is quite strong now.

The earnings are so strong because the economy is still overheated . Tons of cash floating around and no interest cut is actually needed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've been out of the market completely since 2021. Obviously, I've missed out on a lot of gains, but it doesn't bother me one bit. I don't mind missing out on money from speculative investments (which is what I consider the market at these valuations).

So you ignore basic financial planning decisions by trying to time the market, have missed out on vast sums of money based on those decisions, are content with making those risky decisions, and think that is a helpful perspective for someone about to do the exact same thing you did?

Here’s a good lesson for OP, don’t do what this person did. It’s incredibly risky to sit on cash and try buy in when the time is right. You lose to inflation and you miss out on the short period run ups that account for so much growth.

These perspectives are so nuts, particularly in light of all the debate here around the 20% Trump drop earlier this year and then how it predictably came roaring back to all time highs immediately thereafter.

I think this person meant sitting in treasuries and only buying into stock index when there is a 5-10% correction. Why do you think it’s risky ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Market timers almost always lose.

Your retirement allocation should be set according to your appetite for risk. Set it and forget it.

I guess I'm a market timer. I never was before, but I just am not comfortable with where our country is and where it's headed- I would love to be wrong. I put 50% of my TSP in the G fund back in January. I have missed out on some gains, but am going to let it ride in the G fund for longer. My spouse and I have IRAs outside of TSP and these are in index funds and have enjoyed the recent gains. Only my TSP is missing out.