Timing the market crash and my tsp

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sell high. If you are going to move things do it before the drops.
FWIW I had all mine in a life cycle fund and that handled 2001, 2008, 2020 better than any other fund.

This is dumb. Managed funds often do weather bad years a little better, but they underperform on the good years. So maybe you get a smidge less volatility, but you get significantly worse long term returns.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What an idiot, trying to time the stock market over your feelings. Good luck with that!

I don’t know. I moved around $500k into a money market right after the election and moved it back when the market tanked in April. I’m very happy with my returns. Sure it was lucky but it’s also about charts and patterns.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What an idiot, trying to time the stock market over your feelings. Good luck with that!

I don’t know. I moved around $500k into a money market right after the election and moved it back when the market tanked in April. I’m very happy with my returns. Sure it was lucky but it’s also about charts and patterns.

Good for you! Please let us know when we should sell or buy based on your charts and patterns.

[Anonymous]

The problem with timing the market is that you have to guess right twice.

It’s not enough to get out at the right time, you have to also get back in at the right time.

[Anonymous]

It’s best to just save as much as you can in the lowest cost index fund you can every month and not worry about the monthly or even yearly ups and downs. If you do that you’ll be in fine shape at retirement.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sell high. If you are going to move things do it before the drops.
FWIW I had all mine in a life cycle fund and that handled 2001, 2008, 2020 better than any other fund.

This is dumb. Managed funds often do weather bad years a little better, but they underperform on the good years. So maybe you get a smidge less volatility, but you get significantly worse long term returns.

No idea what this means but having some bonds as well as stocks to reduce portfolio risk is certainly not “dumb”.

[Anonymous]

Too many funds. Where are the individual stock and where is your Roth IR or investment account? Sell the money in the two if you are afraid. Why bother with some lousy funds that will not really tank, are eaten away by fees, and are managed by someone else. Stop budding in.
Lower the TSP (whatever the heck this is), put the rest of the money into account completely manage by you and wait for the dip you think is coming.

[Anonymous]

I've been out of the market completely since 2021. Obviously, I've missed out on a lot of gains, but it doesn't bother me one bit. I don't mind missing out on money from speculative investments (which is what I consider the market at these valuations).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been out of the market completely since 2021. Obviously, I've missed out on a lot of gains, but it doesn't bother me one bit. I don't mind missing out on money from speculative investments (which is what I consider the market at these valuations).

Have you been completely out since 2021? You missed out some good years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've been out of the market completely since 2021. Obviously, I've missed out on a lot of gains, but it doesn't bother me one bit. I don't mind missing out on money from speculative investments (which is what I consider the market at these valuations).

Have you been completely out since 2021? You missed out some good years.

Yes, but I put six figures into I bonds when they were very attractive, and of course, cash has done well since then too.

I don't mind missing out on gains. It's more important to me to preserve what I have. The market was very overvalued even in 2021, and of course I missed the 2022 downturn. I've missed the move up since then, but it totally doesn't bother me. Like when someone wins the lottery or gets rich on some crypto nonsense, that's fine by me. It's not my game.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know. I know. You can’t time the market. However, it feels like we are getting into bubble burst territory in the coming months. That’s my feeling. If I see things on a downward trajectory I don’t want to just lose all my tsp gains and let it sit and wait for the market to sort or slowly come back up over the years like it always does.

If you think there will be a crash in a few months, or a year, because of tariffs and you have 500,000 in your tsp. 300,000 is in the I fund, the rest is in the c fund and also in BTCFX in the mutual fund window.

So if the crash and you see it begin as a series of drops over a few days or weeks, and you think it’s time to pull your money into somewhere safe within the tsp. You see stocks start to fall over a couple days and begin to think the crash you predicted is happening.

Where do you move the money quickly into a safer fund in the tsp to preserve the most amount? You know the stock market always goes back up but for now the market will probably have an extended down turn for a few years. You want the ability to keep the money safe and then buy back into one of the funds later when the market is farther down and stocks are cheaper. Would moving money into the G fund be the best place to let it sit until stock prices have fallen into a cheaper place of re-entry?

I believe in the stock market, but I believe in the cyclical nature of things. Is G fund the best place to park it?

I know for my BTCFX I would sell and park the money into a gold mutual fund in the MFW, if Bitcoin started its sort of every 4-year crypto winter crash scenario. I’d park it in gold or the money market fund for a while.

But really I am just trying to game out how to be proactive if the market appears to show an inevitable pattern of slide, or crash.

I get most people here are bogleheads and will just say: “wait it out. Don’t do anything. Get out of BTCFX now actually.” Anyway, thanks.

If there is one thing I can say for sure, it is that you will not build a secure retirement by acting on your “feelings.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The problem with timing the market is that you have to guess right twice.

It’s not enough to get out at the right time, you have to also get back in at the right time.

Actually you have to be right three times: when to buy, when to sell, and when to buy again.

[Anonymous]

Market timers almost always lose.

Your retirement allocation should be set according to your appetite for risk. Set it and forget it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Market timers almost always lose.

Your retirement allocation should be set according to your appetite for risk. Set it and forget it.

I’m going to time the market and I don’t care.

I bought BTCFX earlier this year and have made like $70k on it. I predicted when the housing market crash was going to happen. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the market is at all time highs, is unsustainable, tariffs will restrict growth soon and have market reverberations, values are super high, meme stocks are back, basically I predict we have a continued bull run for awhile, but maybe in the near future (two years or less) we start to see signs of a pull back or even a big recession.

Or Powell gets fired. Compliant Fed chief installed, interest rates go down for a while juicing the market, and it overheats, crypto melts down and is so intertwined with the system, yada yada…a recession is coming at some point soon. Mostly from tariff fault out most likely. Anyway, if I start to read news about prolonged (over weeks) downturn I am moving a big portion of my funds into the G fund and the BTCFX in the mutual fund window into a commodities, healthcare or energy fund for an indefinite period of time before moving it back into the C fund when the market has dropped significantly.

All you set it and forget it people can do that, that’s fine. I’m more hands on.

[Anonymous]

OP, you are going to do damage. Just leave your funds alone.