Is anyone going to defend Taiwan?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There has been a fairly peaceful status quo between China and Taiwan for more than 70 years. And Taiwan is not Crimea. It is a mountainous and heavily defended fortress island with much more sophisticated weapons systems than Ukraine had in 2014. A seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be a bloodbath. We haven’t seen an island invasion since WWII. Iwo Jima, Tarawa and so on were absolutely brutal. Taking a much larger island like Taiwan in the modern era would result in catastrophic losses for everyone.

China has much more massive resources, and given the high population, her leaders might not be too upset by a bloodbath.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There has been a fairly peaceful status quo between China and Taiwan for more than 70 years. And Taiwan is not Crimea. It is a mountainous and heavily defended fortress island with much more sophisticated weapons systems than Ukraine had in 2014. A seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be a bloodbath. We haven’t seen an island invasion since WWII. Iwo Jima, Tarawa and so on were absolutely brutal. Taking a much larger island like Taiwan in the modern era would result in catastrophic losses for everyone.

China has much more massive resources, and given the high population, her leaders might not be too upset by a bloodbath.

There is a question of how China’s
Population would respond to the government if it lost many only children. This is where the old one child policy could be a problem. Combine that with the supposedly larger male population which means a loss of only sons and you could have a problem internally.

[Anonymous]

Xi knows he will be overthrown and probably shot if an invasion fails. He will only invade if he is sure of victory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Xi knows he will be overthrown and probably shot if an invasion fails. He will only invade if he is sure of victory.

You may be on to something.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That's why the genius Trump has building critical manufacturing in the USA as a priority.

Thank God

TSMC began moving chip factories to the US under Biden, not Trump. That’s what the CHIPS Act was all about. TSMC, Intel, Global Foundries, LAM Research started construction in Ohio, NY, and Arizona in 2023, with more to become. I have no idea if the additional factories that were planned are opening Trump rescinded the CHIPS Act funding.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Xi is not an idiot and Trump is not a warmonger. A war is very unlikely, particularly over a chip factory that will be destroyed anyway. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, conflicts between near peers in the era of drones is devastating for everyone.

You can destroy the physical structure, nbd. However, you cannot destroy the mental intel. You gave the developers and the same workers, you simply rebuild the structure and keep it moving. The destruction of the factory is a simple delay and mere inconvenience.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Xi is not an idiot and Trump is not a warmonger. A war is very unlikely, particularly over a chip factory that will be destroyed anyway. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, conflicts between near peers in the era of drones is devastating for everyone.

You can destroy the physical structure, nbd. However, you cannot destroy the mental intel. You gave the developers and the same workers, you simply rebuild the structure and keep it moving. The destruction of the factory is a simple delay and mere inconvenience.

The workers can't do anything until they rebuild the factory and get the highly specialized equipment needed to make the chips. Where is China going to get that from? Nobody is goingto sell to them if they invade Taiwan. It would be decades before TSMC worked again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Xi is not an idiot and Trump is not a warmonger. A war is very unlikely, particularly over a chip factory that will be destroyed anyway. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, conflicts between near peers in the era of drones is devastating for everyone.

You can destroy the physical structure, nbd. However, you cannot destroy the mental intel. You gave the developers and the same workers, you simply rebuild the structure and keep it moving. The destruction of the factory is a simple delay and mere inconvenience.

The workers can't do anything until they rebuild the factory and get the highly specialized equipment needed to make the chips. Where is China going to get that from? Nobody is goingto sell to them if they invade Taiwan. It would be decades before TSMC worked again.

Why would they care about that. Taiwan is seen as part of China and they want it. They do not want it for its tech.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Xi is not an idiot and Trump is not a warmonger. A war is very unlikely, particularly over a chip factory that will be destroyed anyway. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, conflicts between near peers in the era of drones is devastating for everyone.

You can destroy the physical structure, nbd. However, you cannot destroy the mental intel. You gave the developers and the same workers, you simply rebuild the structure and keep it moving. The destruction of the factory is a simple delay and mere inconvenience.

The workers can't do anything until they rebuild the factory and get the highly specialized equipment needed to make the chips. Where is China going to get that from? Nobody is goingto sell to them if they invade Taiwan. It would be decades before TSMC worked again.

Why would they care about that. Taiwan is seen as part of China and they want it. They do not want it for its tech.

Two things can be true at once.

[Anonymous]

Taiwan will never be defended militarily by any country. Sanctions which seem to do little will be imposed.

Best hope is for Taiwan to put a US military base on the island if not one already.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Taiwan will never be defended militarily by any country. Sanctions which seem to do little will be imposed.

Best hope is for Taiwan to put a US military base on the island if not one already.

Why hasn’t the US ever done that? Especially when the Made in Taiwan logo was a thing?

[Anonymous]

MAGA are already vocally supporting China. It is similar to the Putin support- spread cash to the maga influencers and get results.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When China owns Taiwan, and the best source of chips, they will own the world.

LOL, attacking Taiwan would be killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

TSMC would be destroyed before the Chinese take over. There would be nothing left to own at that point.

Not too familiar with this whole issue. Why would TSMC be destroyed before the Chinese take over?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When China owns Taiwan, and the best source of chips, they will own the world.

LOL, attacking Taiwan would be killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

TSMC would be destroyed before the Chinese take over. There would be nothing left to own at that point.

Not too familiar with this whole issue. Why would TSMC be destroyed before the Chinese take over?

Taiwanese won't allow TSMC factories to be taken over the Chinese. They will blow it up before they allow the Chinese to have it. TSMC is banned by Taiwan government to build latest chip tech outside Taiwan. Thus, Taiwan will always remain critically important to the West. TSMC can only build previous generation chips outside of Taiwan.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/taiwans-government-strengthens-silicon-shield-restricts-exports-of-tsmcs-most-advanced-process-technologies

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Taiwan will never be defended militarily by any country. Sanctions which seem to do little will be imposed.

Best hope is for Taiwan to put a US military base on the island if not one already.

Why hasn’t the US ever done that? Especially when the Made in Taiwan logo was a thing?

The US had a military base in Taiwan with thousands of soldiers stationed there. We left in the 70s when we decided China was more important.

Putting a US base there nowadays would be tantamount to war.