Are we being complacent about disappearing white collar jobs?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not just white collar jobs. Anyone earning a salary or wages is not viewed as human and can be discarded for any perceived inconvenience to a company. Tech is already talking about AI replacing 80% of employed people.

They may fire 80% of employed people, but AI won't actually replace the things those people do. Every service and interaction will just get crappier due to bad AI chatbots, bad AI generated information, and endless loops where you can never talk to a person to sort it out. The efficiency will be theirs (in not paying salaries) not ours (in getting products and services anybody wants).

Correct. We've been arguing that tech would kill all the jobs for generations, basically since the late 18th century when the industrial revolution actually started (but before the Luddites really freaked out about it) but it hasn't yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think we need more white collar job creation and it can’t always be from the government. We can’t all be plumbers.

While someone’s remark of “let them do manufacturing” was awful sounding, there are white collar jobs that come from that and probably not too many blue collar jobs because of the level of automation needed to make it cost efficient.

Well hopefully the private sector will hire their own scientists, doctors, and economists, like they already do lawyers. They’ll be little ecosystems. A lot of these jobs may revert to state levels, so VA may hire its own weather scientists. Insurers may have to independently hire them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This has been reported on for years, its just finally hitting DC. You just didn't notice when it didn't affect your neighborhood as much.

We didn't notice it because of all the Fed jobs around here, IMO. It's been pretty well documented in other parts of the state and country.

When people reported their college graduate kids only being able to get jobs as baristas or restaurant servers, the responses were "well, that's what you get with a liberal arts degree". When OPs clarified that their kids were computer science or engineering majors, the responses flipped to "oversaturated degrees - they should have picked something better". Any excuse except for acknowledging the fact that the US' push for higher education as the only successful path for all has created a problem where we have too many college degreed workers and too few jobs that utilize those degrees.

When I graduated in 2000 from a HS in this area, all we were told through all 4 years of HS by our parents, teachers, and counselors was that college = THE ONLY path to success. Vocational learning = for the losers who didn't have good grades or opportunities - the stoners, the bad kids, the kids from the bad neighborhoods, the short bus kids. This was drilled into our heads over and over. It's how we have such a big student loan crisis right now. My guidance counselor told me "don't worry about the loans because when you graduate with that degree, you'll be making so much money that they'll be paid off in a year or two" when I expressed concern about going straight to a 4-year school instead of NVCC for 2 years. 21 years later and I'm still paying off those loans...

[Anonymous]

I wish I could start my own business. I started my career in consulting and ended up in a PMO role, which some people tried to get out of as quickly as possible but I loved and actually ended up in charge of a PMO for about $100M of work! I could see myself being an operations manager for a plumbing company or something, coordinating all the activities, doing the budget, vetting and hiring subcontractors…I just have no idea what to have the business do. Wishful thinking LOL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wish I could start my own business. I started my career in consulting and ended up in a PMO role, which some people tried to get out of as quickly as possible but I loved and actually ended up in charge of a PMO for about $100M of work! I could see myself being an operations manager for a plumbing company or something, coordinating all the activities, doing the budget, vetting and hiring subcontractors…I just have no idea what to have the business do. Wishful thinking LOL.

You could apply for a management role at a small business you have a personal interest in and then use that experience to launch your own. What do you like doing? If you love working out, go work at a gym. If you love gardening, go work at a nursery or landscaper. Those businesses are often desperate for competent, responsible people who won't flake and know how to manage employees and do customer service, all of which you'd have plenty of experience with in a PMO role. And at a small business, you will get a ton of responsibility quickly. Look for an established business where the owners are getting older and want more freedom -- hiring you will enable them to take vacations and start to enjoy the fruits of their labors. And will quickly put you in touch with a ton of industry contacts -- distributors, retailers, contractors, etc. 4-5 years of that and you'd be ready.

I think you'd be surprised how quickly you could change your career in this way. You have all the skills, you just need the opportunities and contacts and it's not as hard to get as you seem to think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

These businesses have some of the highest bankruptcy rates. Not sure why DCUM loves to make you think all contractors/construction owners do well…like 95% don’t.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wish I could start my own business. I started my career in consulting and ended up in a PMO role, which some people tried to get out of as quickly as possible but I loved and actually ended up in charge of a PMO for about $100M of work! I could see myself being an operations manager for a plumbing company or something, coordinating all the activities, doing the budget, vetting and hiring subcontractors…I just have no idea what to have the business do. Wishful thinking LOL.

You could apply for a management role at a small business you have a personal interest in and then use that experience to launch your own. What do you like doing? If you love working out, go work at a gym. If you love gardening, go work at a nursery or landscaper. Those businesses are often desperate for competent, responsible people who won't flake and know how to manage employees and do customer service, all of which you'd have plenty of experience with in a PMO role. And at a small business, you will get a ton of responsibility quickly. Look for an established business where the owners are getting older and want more freedom -- hiring you will enable them to take vacations and start to enjoy the fruits of their labors. And will quickly put you in touch with a ton of industry contacts -- distributors, retailers, contractors, etc. 4-5 years of that and you'd be ready.

I think you'd be surprised how quickly you could change your career in this way. You have all the skills, you just need the opportunities and contacts and it's not as hard to get as you seem to think.

Thank you for the encouragement. I’ve been feeling really lost in my career and this helped me, to see that there are possibilities out there. I’m in my early 30s and feeling pressure to ‘fully commit’ in my current job that is pretty lucrative but not fulfilling at all. I am going to start researching some options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

This is one of those things like when people say "if you don't like working for minimum wage, just find a better job" that while it can be true for anybody, it cannot be true for everybody.

Yes, many blue collar workers successfully transition into management or ownership, but it's impossible for everyone to do it because every step up the ladder you go, you're winnowing out multiple people. You hand wave the winnowed away saying they are drunks and divorcees but there are assuredly plenty of people for whom they were not able to become managers or owners simply because there aren't enough of those job available for every single blue collar worker to transition into.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

This is one of those things like when people say "if you don't like working for minimum wage, just find a better job" that while it can be true for anybody, it cannot be true for everybody.

Yes, many blue collar workers successfully transition into management or ownership, but it's impossible for everyone to do it because every step up the ladder you go, you're winnowing out multiple people. You hand wave the winnowed away saying they are drunks and divorcees but there are assuredly plenty of people for whom they were not able to become managers or owners simply because there aren't enough of those job available for every single blue collar worker to transition into.

+1

Those types of comments are typical guilded age oligarchy BS comments. Let’s have an economy of all managers.

[Anonymous]

This is the true problem for our economy, actually. Not the loss of manufacturing jobs. Ours has been a service economy for a very long time, and we are losing high-paying service industry jobs to overseas competitors. And when I say service industry ... I don't mean call centers. I mean things like software design, MD radiologists, accounting/finance, consulting, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

This is one of those things like when people say "if you don't like working for minimum wage, just find a better job" that while it can be true for anybody, it cannot be true for everybody.

Yes, many blue collar workers successfully transition into management or ownership, but it's impossible for everyone to do it because every step up the ladder you go, you're winnowing out multiple people. You hand wave the winnowed away saying they are drunks and divorcees but there are assuredly plenty of people for whom they were not able to become managers or owners simply because there aren't enough of those job available for every single blue collar worker to transition into.

I'm the PP about the trades. My perspective comes from having grown up conservative Mennonite. Blue collar isn't just an option in those circles, it's universal unless you leave the church (which my family did, no hard feelings, wonderful people). It's not what you're thinking regarding becoming a manager by some kind of stiff competition, and where you borrow 7 figures from the bank to launch your DC house-building company. It's incremental progress, starting in your teens, zero debt, hiring people you know and trust, organically building a book of repeat clients and a great reputation, etc. By middle age it is then commonplace (in those circles) to have a well-established small business that doesn't do anything fancy except build quality stuff at fair prices. It is also commonplace for the guy in his 40s to not be thrashing his body at this point.

Yes people get injured sometimes, but on the other hand, nobody is clinically depressed or alcoholic or hitting his wife, etc.

[Anonymous]

^I'll add that in this kind of work, since you're truly creating something, you're not involved in a zero sum game. It's not like being an investment advisor or something where it has to be "I win you lose". It's more of a rising tide lifts all ships kind of thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

This is one of those things like when people say "if you don't like working for minimum wage, just find a better job" that while it can be true for anybody, it cannot be true for everybody.

Yes, many blue collar workers successfully transition into management or ownership, but it's impossible for everyone to do it because every step up the ladder you go, you're winnowing out multiple people. You hand wave the winnowed away saying they are drunks and divorcees but there are assuredly plenty of people for whom they were not able to become managers or owners simply because there aren't enough of those job available for every single blue collar worker to transition into.

I'm the PP about the trades. My perspective comes from having grown up conservative Mennonite. Blue collar isn't just an option in those circles, it's universal unless you leave the church (which my family did, no hard feelings, wonderful people). It's not what you're thinking regarding becoming a manager by some kind of stiff competition, and where you borrow 7 figures from the bank to launch your DC house-building company. It's incremental progress, starting in your teens, zero debt, hiring people you know and trust, organically building a book of repeat clients and a great reputation, etc. By middle age it is then commonplace (in those circles) to have a well-established small business that doesn't do anything fancy except build quality stuff at fair prices. It is also commonplace for the guy in his 40s to not be thrashing his body at this point.

Yes people get injured sometimes, but on the other hand, nobody is clinically depressed or alcoholic or hitting his wife, etc.

That works until PE comes in and hires a bunch of people and undercuts your prices by 1/3.

It works in a closed community, and that has its own issues for mobility and people who are different.

[Anonymous]

Unless PE imports a bunch of migrant labor, that's not going to happen. We're talking AI resistant, not "whatabout if we imported millions of South American laborers". Different problem.

But yeah, if we flop back to open borders AND see increasing AI use? Well, yeah, we're all going to be serfs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

Very comfortable situation? I call bs. Some are but without a doubt they don't have reasonable retirement savings and no matching contributions etc. Their retirement, unless they can sell their business for a significant profit, is bleak.