Are we being complacent about disappearing white collar jobs?

[Anonymous]

Are we being complacent about disappearing white collar jobs? When I look at job reports a lot of jobs seem to be in service related sectors. And people have been complaining about the tough job market for awhile now. Yet there are openings if you want to be a bus driver, home health aide, etc....

[Anonymous]

Yes, but will white collar workers do well on such low income? I'm a blue collar worker who is used to low income and no benefits.

[Anonymous]

This has been reported on for years, its just finally hitting DC. You just didn't notice when it didn't affect your neighborhood as much.

[Anonymous]

Policy wonks should be unemployed

[Anonymous]

Yes, I think as a country we are complacent, and educated (white?) people as a group are complacent about the next generation. We have forgotten the space race and national push to educate kids so they would have good options. My parents were blue collar and busted their butts so I could go to college and live better than they did - not so their grandkids could work as Uber drivers and gig-economy coders with no benefits.

I've also noticed a fantasy that displaced white collar workers will somehow fill all the underpaid pink collar jobs - teachers, childcare, home health aides, etc - as if that wouldn't represent a massive cut nationally to incomes and spending power and tax base. We think we can chronically underpay a bunch of necessary workers until there's a shortage, and then try to fill those jobs not by paying more but by destroying the higher paying fields whose workers primarily consume and pay for those services.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This has been reported on for years, its just finally hitting DC. You just didn't notice when it didn't affect your neighborhood as much.

This is one of the reasons why I don’t get the panic about declining birth rate. White collar jobs are declining, manufacturing jobs are declining, service jobs are also declining (look at your grocery store checkout!). Why should we have so many children when there won’t be jobs for them? The future is a smaller human population with more tech support.

[Anonymous]

We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

[Anonymous]

Soon we will be in the best new days where you, your kid, and your grandkids all can work in a factory job for the same company. That's what that lunatic from Cantor Fitzgerald said.
Ironic I really admired him for how he rallied the firm and took care of the dependents after 9-11. Was he always a nut?

[Anonymous]

Absolutely. Let me give you a concrete example. 3 years ago my team had 10 people. Today 3 are left. All the other 7 positions have been eliminated. And we are producing more with 3 people compared to 10 before.

You will ask what changed. Software my friend. We deployed a killer software that wiped out 7 positions. And this happened in the current pre-AI era.

My twin brother is a software developer in the bay area and whenever I talk to him I am scared for our kids and ask myself where they will work.

Of course the arrogant lawyers and other white collar workers think they will be immune. Let's see...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This has been reported on for years, its just finally hitting DC. You just didn't notice when it didn't affect your neighborhood as much.

This is one of the reasons why I don’t get the panic about declining birth rate. White collar jobs are declining, manufacturing jobs are declining, service jobs are also declining (look at your grocery store checkout!). Why should we have so many children when there won’t be jobs for them? The future is a smaller human population with more tech support.

Oh, there will be jobs for them. Those jobs amount to indentured servitude.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

I'm the person you responded to. My dad owns a repair shop (sole proprietor) and did some construction on the side when I was younger. We lived in fear of him injuring himself, especially his hands or eyes, because he would be unable to work. We were all on my mom's health insurance, since he had none; no paid vacation, no real retirement savings (yes he should have, but it's hard when there's no structure). As a family we know a lot of tradespeople who are good workers but just bad with money/bookkeeping and frequently in the red or losing their own company and going to work for someone else.

There are successful ones too! But the businesses you see around town are the ones making it. You don't see the people who got hurt or bankrupt, because they are janitors or salesguys now instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, I think as a country we are complacent, and educated (white?) people as a group are complacent about the next generation. We have forgotten the space race and national push to educate kids so they would have good options. My parents were blue collar and busted their butts so I could go to college and live better than they did - not so their grandkids could work as Uber drivers and gig-economy coders with no benefits.

I've also noticed a fantasy that displaced white collar workers will somehow fill all the underpaid pink collar jobs - teachers, childcare, home health aides, etc - as if that wouldn't represent a massive cut nationally to incomes and spending power and tax base. We think we can chronically underpay a bunch of necessary workers until there's a shortage, and then try to fill those jobs not by paying more but by destroying the higher paying fields whose workers primarily consume and pay for those services.

It's basically a push to create a new slave class, but in this case, the goal is to place about 80-90% of the population into that class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

I'm the person you responded to. My dad owns a repair shop (sole proprietor) and did some construction on the side when I was younger. We lived in fear of him injuring himself, especially his hands or eyes, because he would be unable to work. We were all on my mom's health insurance, since he had none; no paid vacation, no real retirement savings (yes he should have, but it's hard when there's no structure). As a family we know a lot of tradespeople who are good workers but just bad with money/bookkeeping and frequently in the red or losing their own company and going to work for someone else.

There are successful ones too! But the businesses you see around town are the ones making it. You don't see the people who got hurt or bankrupt, because they are janitors or salesguys now instead.

Same for my dad. He had a construction business. Some years he did well, but he really struggled during economic downturns (most people do, but it’s worse when you own the business.) He once got injured pretty badly. He worked physical labor until he was almost 70.