Thomas Jefferson HS National Merit Semifinalist decrease

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Didn’t we already discuss this? The number of NMSFs in FCPS and Virginia declined as well. That accounts for part of the decline at TJ.

Also, the decline in Virginia was actually an improvement in absolute scores, resulting in an increase in the NMSF cut score from 219 to 222, resulting in a lower number of NMSFs in Virginia. If TJ students are disproportionately clustered in the 219-221 range, which is plausible because TJ emphasizes math while the NMSF formula emphasizes verbal, the number of students at TJ with an NMSF selection index score of 219+ might actually have gone up.

TLDR, yoy NMSF count is not a very reliable metric of quality, especially if what you care about is math.

Do you even know how NMSFs cutoff scores are established?

DP. I don't know. Can you tell me?

Since you know how internet works, learning how google works shouldn't be a huge step.

So you don't know.

DP here. It's a percentile. The top X% get NMSF.

https://www.collegevine.com/faq/53783/understanding-national-merit-finalist-cutoffs

Okay - is it exact though or does the number vary a bit year to year? Is there a list of total NMSF for Virginia (and Maryland and DC) each year? I know there are lists of cutoffs per state per year, including estimated cutoffs for next year. I'm not sure if the total number for the state is fixed or not (with a percentile, the number could vary). The cutoff was 3 points higher this year than last year, fwiw. So while fewer at TJ this year, they scored higher.

If you don't understand how the NMSF works then why are you having an opinion?
You can literally just google it and find out that you are wrong about everything and I am right about everything.
The number of Semifinalists in a state is proportional to the state’s percentage of the national total of graduating seniors.
That's it. So unless Virginia's graduating seniors dropped in fkn half since last year, this drop at TJ cannot be explained by any of your bullsg*t theories.

This is incorrect. Virginia usually has around 400 NMSF, this current year there were 394, but last year, the cutoff was 3 points lower and there were 467 NMSFs, a significant one-time increase. Last year was an outlier and should not be used in measurements.

[Anonymous]

Another factor is the transition to Digital SAT last year. 2017 was the first year of the updated paper PSAT, which corresponded to a 27% decrease from 163 to 119 at TJ (prior trough).

Separately, I’d assume the numbers will trend up in the coming years as the Class of 2025 had disproportionately more students from economically disadvantaged schools (138, 25.1%) compared to Class of 2027 (63, 11.5%), and notably lower Asian students (299 vs 339 in 2027).

[Anonymous]

The issue isn’t the number of students from economically disadvantaged schools, but rather that their selection process isn’t merit-based. Instead of choosing the most deserving students from from economically disadvantaged schools based on their math and English skills, they are evaluated based on a bogus essay.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The issue isn’t the number of students from economically disadvantaged schools, but rather that their selection process isn’t merit-based. Instead of choosing the most deserving students from from economically disadvantaged schools based on their math and English skills, they are evaluated based on a bogus essay.

Well, they kinda need English skills to be evaluated on an essay exam and they also need to be in the top 1.5% of their class, so they also need math skills for that.

So saying it’s a bogus exam while ignoring the known metrics of how the kids get in is illogical.

I know a lot of parents wonder how certain kids get into TJ but their kids don’t. But the honest truth is the kids who got in had something special your kid doesn’t. And it’s not going to change now.

I also want to point out that this bitterness that the admissions process has changed is really moronic at this point. Your kids will adapt to whatever school they are in. But if you’re still stuck on the idea that they didn’t get into TJ because they changed the admissions, you are basically telling your kid they weren’t smart enough to get through a bogus exam and be in the top 1.5% of their class. That the dumbed down admissions failure on your kid means that they are even dumber than the kids who got in. Let that sink in a bit- you are saying the essay is bogus and yet your kid didn’t know how to write to pass a bogus essay exam but other “dumb” kids did.

I know some people think TJ will go down farther in US New rankings. But honestly- I don’t know of a single VA public school that sends 5+ kids to MIT at any given year. So until other high schools start sending more kids to T10 schools than TJ- I don’t think you have a strong argument. School rankings change all the time even when the curriculum doesn’t. And isn’t that what makes TJ great- the curriculum and not the admissions process? And if the curriculum is mid, then why complain about not getting in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Didn’t we already discuss this? The number of NMSFs in FCPS and Virginia declined as well. That accounts for part of the decline at TJ.

Also, the decline in Virginia was actually an improvement in absolute scores, resulting in an increase in the NMSF cut score from 219 to 222, resulting in a lower number of NMSFs in Virginia. If TJ students are disproportionately clustered in the 219-221 range, which is plausible because TJ emphasizes math while the NMSF formula emphasizes verbal, the number of students at TJ with an NMSF selection index score of 219+ might actually have gone up.

TLDR, yoy NMSF count is not a very reliable metric of quality, especially if what you care about is math.

Do you even know how NMSFs cutoff scores are established?

DP. I don't know. Can you tell me?

Since you know how internet works, learning how google works shouldn't be a huge step.

So you don't know.

DP here. It's a percentile. The top X% get NMSF.

https://www.collegevine.com/faq/53783/understanding-national-merit-finalist-cutoffs

Okay - is it exact though or does the number vary a bit year to year? Is there a list of total NMSF for Virginia (and Maryland and DC) each year? I know there are lists of cutoffs per state per year, including estimated cutoffs for next year. I'm not sure if the total number for the state is fixed or not (with a percentile, the number could vary). The cutoff was 3 points higher this year than last year, fwiw. So while fewer at TJ this year, they scored higher.

If you don't understand how the NMSF works then why are you having an opinion?
You can literally just google it and find out that you are wrong about everything and I am right about everything.
The number of Semifinalists in a state is proportional to the state’s percentage of the national total of graduating seniors.
That's it. So unless Virginia's graduating seniors dropped in fkn half since last year, this drop at TJ cannot be explained by any of your bullsg*t theories.

This is incorrect. Virginia usually has around 400 NMSF, this current year there were 394, but last year, the cutoff was 3 points lower and there were 467 NMSFs, a significant one-time increase. Last year was an outlier and should not be used in measurements.

Agree, it's going to be fine. The OP is just a far-right kook trying to push their TJ conspriacy theories.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another factor is the transition to Digital SAT last year. 2017 was the first year of the updated paper PSAT, which corresponded to a 27% decrease from 163 to 119 at TJ (prior trough).

Separately, I’d assume the numbers will trend up in the coming years as the Class of 2025 had disproportionately more students from economically disadvantaged schools (138, 25.1%) compared to Class of 2027 (63, 11.5%), and notably lower Asian students (299 vs 339 in 2027).

Also, TJ kids have especially relied heavily on outside prep which was shutdown during the pandemic.

[Anonymous]

Well, they kinda need English skills to be evaluated on an essay exam and they also need to be in the top 1.5% of their class, so they also need math skills for that.

The top 1.5% is only used to select the guaranteed seats per MS. If a MS has 9 seats and 15 students apply, the 9 guaranteed seats are taken from the top 1.5%.

The minimum requirements for applying to TJ are:

1) A GPA of 3.5 from core classes
2) Honors math and science in 7th and 8th grade
3) Completion of Algebra 1 by 8th grade
4) One honors class in English or history

You can apply to TJ and not be in the top 1.5%. You can probably apply to TJ and be in the top 15%, guessing here about the percentage of kids with a 3.5 GPA taking mainly honors classes.

Kids who apply will complete an essay exam that includes questions about themselves and their interest in TJ and completing math questions and explaining their answer/how they derived it type thing.

Kids are awarded points for their GPA and essay. Bonus points are given to kids who are on FARMs and who have IEPs. Because of the weighting, a kid with a lower GPA could end up higher on the list of students because they receive free meals and have an IEP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s such a dramatic drop. And the numbers at other FCPS schools didn’t increase enough to cover the decline. It suggests that TJ’s education and experience was contributing to the success. It’s not a case of just moving these students to another school. It’s a real shame. Tj was an amazing experience for my kids (who didn’t prep to get in), with high rigor and a peer group who also loved to be challenged and learn. The admissions changes were done so haphazardly during COVID. FCPS doesn’t seem inclined to study the changes and see if it anything should be done to tweak it. And they ignore the indicators, such as this one, that the quality of the school has declined.

FCPS never admits it’s made mistakes and those mistakes just keep piling up. The huge decline in the number of NMSF at TJ speaks for itself, but people call attention to it because FCPS itself will never acknowledge it’s symptomatic of the rot within the system.

It’s what happens when a school system is no longer run by people with a commitment to academic excellence, but instead only to virtue signaling designed to appease political hacks.

“Academic excellence” is not determined by standardized test scores.

It is certainly one very good indicator.

Eh, it can be one of a number of indicators, but by itself it is not necessarily a “very good” indicator of academic excellence.

It's pretty good. There's a reason why pretty much the entire rest of the world uses a standardized test to determine college admissions.

It can, though, be a “very good” indicator of amount of test prep a student has engaged in. Maybe there’s less test prep going on among TJ students nowadays? That would be a great move forward for the school community.

Nope, that's not it. The Harvard/Brown study proves that's not what standardized tests measure. There is literally more research proving the legitimacy of standardized tests than there is for anthropogenic global warming.

I see you are a big drinker of the test prep kool aid.

[Anonymous]

I'm very surprised at the constant threads on TJ, trying to cut it down. It's a high school, a good one. Can't everyone just leave it at that and move on?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm very surprised at the constant threads on TJ, trying to cut it down. It's a high school, a good one. Can't everyone just leave it at that and move on?

Certainly not in an election year.

[Anonymous]

we're decrasing because we're gooning

[Anonymous]

BREAKING: School that no longer overselects for test-taking ability suddenly performs worse than before but still better than everyone else at test-taking contest

Story at 11

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The issue isn’t the number of students from economically disadvantaged schools, but rather that their selection process isn’t merit-based. Instead of choosing the most deserving students from from economically disadvantaged schools based on their math and English skills, they are evaluated based on a bogus essay.

Well, they kinda need English skills to be evaluated on an essay exam and they also need to be in the top 1.5% of their class, so they also need math skills for that.

DP here.

They don't need to be in the top 1.5% of their class.
Each school gets a quota of 1.5% but the 1.5% is chosen largely on the basis of the essay exam.

So saying it’s a bogus exam while ignoring the known metrics of how the kids get in is illogical.

You don't seem to understand how kids get in. The GPA only gets you into the pool.

I know a lot of parents wonder how certain kids get into TJ but their kids don’t. But the honest truth is the kids who got in had something special your kid doesn’t. And it’s not going to change now.

I bet it does. At the very least, I suspect they add a testing element so you actually get a merit filter for the underrepresented schools.

I also want to point out that this bitterness that the admissions process has changed is really moronic at this point.

Racism breeds bitterness,

Your kids will adapt to whatever school they are in. But if you’re still stuck on the idea that they didn’t get into TJ because they changed the admissions, you are basically telling your kid they weren’t smart enough to get through a bogus exam and be in the top 1.5% of their class. That the dumbed down admissions failure on your kid means that they are even dumber than the kids who got in. Let that sink in a bit- you are saying the essay is bogus and yet your kid didn’t know how to write to pass a bogus essay exam but other “dumb” kids did.

Or the racists moved the goalposts again. This time they moved the goalposts into the parking lot.

I know some people think TJ will go down farther in US New rankings. But honestly- I don’t know of a single VA public school that sends 5+ kids to MIT at any given year. So until other high schools start sending more kids to T10 schools than TJ- I don’t think you have a strong argument.

TJ isn't competing for the top spot with McLean high school.

School rankings change all the time even when the curriculum doesn’t. And isn’t that what makes TJ great- the curriculum and not the admissions process? And if the curriculum is mid, then why complain about not getting in?

Not really. You can replicate the curriculum anywhere. There isn't really that big of a difference between TJ course offerings and McLean course offerings. The both have multivariable and linear algebra, and frankly very few students at either school is going to go much beyond that. The other course offerings seem to shift from year to year. They had number theory a few years ago, I see math techniques seem to have taken its place. But the algebra kids that make up 1/3 of the class aren't going to need any of the math classes beyond MV calc and linear algebra. There are a handful of additional science offerings but if there was enough interest, they could have those classes at any school.

I think the primary reason TJ is attractive to very bright students is the environment, peer group and rigor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another factor is the transition to Digital SAT last year. 2017 was the first year of the updated paper PSAT, which corresponded to a 27% decrease from 163 to 119 at TJ (prior trough).

Separately, I’d assume the numbers will trend up in the coming years as the Class of 2025 had disproportionately more students from economically disadvantaged schools (138, 25.1%) compared to Class of 2027 (63, 11.5%), and notably lower Asian students (299 vs 339 in 2027).

Also, TJ kids have especially relied heavily on outside prep which was shutdown during the pandemic.

The pandemic was 4 years ago. The students from 3, 2, and 1 year ago seem to do just fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s such a dramatic drop. And the numbers at other FCPS schools didn’t increase enough to cover the decline. It suggests that TJ’s education and experience was contributing to the success. It’s not a case of just moving these students to another school. It’s a real shame. Tj was an amazing experience for my kids (who didn’t prep to get in), with high rigor and a peer group who also loved to be challenged and learn. The admissions changes were done so haphazardly during COVID. FCPS doesn’t seem inclined to study the changes and see if it anything should be done to tweak it. And they ignore the indicators, such as this one, that the quality of the school has declined.

FCPS never admits it’s made mistakes and those mistakes just keep piling up. The huge decline in the number of NMSF at TJ speaks for itself, but people call attention to it because FCPS itself will never acknowledge it’s symptomatic of the rot within the system.

It’s what happens when a school system is no longer run by people with a commitment to academic excellence, but instead only to virtue signaling designed to appease political hacks.

“Academic excellence” is not determined by standardized test scores.

It is certainly one very good indicator.

Eh, it can be one of a number of indicators, but by itself it is not necessarily a “very good” indicator of academic excellence.

It's pretty good. There's a reason why pretty much the entire rest of the world uses a standardized test to determine college admissions.

It can, though, be a “very good” indicator of amount of test prep a student has engaged in. Maybe there’s less test prep going on among TJ students nowadays? That would be a great move forward for the school community.

Nope, that's not it. The Harvard/Brown study proves that's not what standardized tests measure. There is literally more research proving the legitimacy of standardized tests than there is for anthropogenic global warming.

I see you are a big drinker of the test prep kool aid.

If by Kool-Aid, you mean peer reviewed studies by ivy league professors that are on the National Bureau of Economic Research.
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf