how likely is a shutdown?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The shutdown is unlikely. The far right that Gaetz leads, that is taking the hard stance, is only about 10% of the party. They can posture all they want, but they do NOT have the power to oust McCarthy as Speaker without getting a lot more support from the mainstream Conservatives.

If McCarthy can come to a compromise solution that the majority of the party can live with, even if the hard-liners don't, he will keep the government open. It remains to be seen if he can do that, but I expect that there will be a series of bipartisan CRs that will kick the can down the road long enough to get a bipartison budget passed, probably sometime in early 2024. But it will happen and McCarthy will not lose his speakership. There is literally NO ONE that the hard-liners will liek that can conceivably win the Speakership. So, they have to put up with a Speaker that the mainstream Conservatives will support, like McCarthy. They will get concessions, but they will never get someone to toe their unreasonable line.

He already did. The spending cuts that everyone agreed to when the debt limit was raised where the compromise. He's trying to pretend that didn't happen and cut further. He's counting on the democrats not having a spine, which is usually a good bet (remember when Biden refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling).

That's not completely true. McCarthy said at the time that that round of compromise was intended to be the first step to get through the debt limit impasse. He said at the time that further cuts would need to be considered when the budget debate came up, which it is now.

If the Democrats really thought that that one round of cuts was going to be sufficient to get through every impasse, they were and are pretty naive. Everything in Congress unless explicitly spelled out with a period of agreement is for the current debate only. This is why some discussions say things like no further cuts until <date>. If there is no limit discussed and documented at the time of the agreement, then it is assumed to be the current agreement, to be renegotiated the next time.

If that's what happened, then they didn't agree on anything at all. The democrats would be free to increase spending beyond the caps too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The shutdown is unlikely. The far right that Gaetz leads, that is taking the hard stance, is only about 10% of the party. They can posture all they want, but they do NOT have the power to oust McCarthy as Speaker without getting a lot more support from the mainstream Conservatives.

If McCarthy can come to a compromise solution that the majority of the party can live with, even if the hard-liners don't, he will keep the government open. It remains to be seen if he can do that, but I expect that there will be a series of bipartisan CRs that will kick the can down the road long enough to get a bipartison budget passed, probably sometime in early 2024. But it will happen and McCarthy will not lose his speakership. There is literally NO ONE that the hard-liners will liek that can conceivably win the Speakership. So, they have to put up with a Speaker that the mainstream Conservatives will support, like McCarthy. They will get concessions, but they will never get someone to toe their unreasonable line.

He already did. The spending cuts that everyone agreed to when the debt limit was raised where the compromise. He's trying to pretend that didn't happen and cut further. He's counting on the democrats not having a spine, which is usually a good bet (remember when Biden refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling).

That's not completely true. McCarthy said at the time that that round of compromise was intended to be the first step to get through the debt limit impasse. He said at the time that further cuts would need to be considered when the budget debate came up, which it is now.

If the Democrats really thought that that one round of cuts was going to be sufficient to get through every impasse, they were and are pretty naive. Everything in Congress unless explicitly spelled out with a period of agreement is for the current debate only. This is why some discussions say things like no further cuts until <date>. If there is no limit discussed and documented at the time of the agreement, then it is assumed to be the current agreement, to be renegotiated the next time.

If that's what happened, then they didn't agree on anything at all. The democrats would be free to increase spending beyond the caps too.

Sorry, I just reread. The FRA instituted spending caps for FY2024 and FY2025, so there was a discussed limit imposed in the agreement. Additionally, the FRA also incentivizes avoiding CRs where possible. If a CR is in effect, there are addtional spending revisions imposed during the CR. The Republicans can impose additional spending cuts, but the Democrats cannot increase the spending caps.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12168

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Name a time the Dems were in control and there was a shut down.

DP. Not sure what you mean by “in control.” The “Dems” controlled the presidency in 1995 and 2013 during those govt shutdowns.

Control of the House, dear. You know, the part of Congress where all budget bills need to originate?

[Anonymous]

Wow, got quiet in here.

Meanwhile, these clowns still have no idea how to govern.

[Anonymous]

Goldman Sacs said they predict a 2-3 week shutdown.

[Anonymous]

Since there's no conflict or negotiating goal beyond No, there's no reason for the shutdown to end sooner than the previous one. No reason to even have a shutdown, for that matter. I predict either no shutdown or a 40 day shutdown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Since there's no conflict or negotiating goal beyond No, there's no reason for the shutdown to end sooner than the previous one. No reason to even have a shutdown, for that matter. I predict either no shutdown or a 40 day shutdown.

Anyone who actually knows something or has inside info?

If you had to put a number on it, how likely is it. 60%? 70%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Since there's no conflict or negotiating goal beyond No, there's no reason for the shutdown to end sooner than the previous one. No reason to even have a shutdown, for that matter. I predict either no shutdown or a 40 day shutdown.

Anyone who actually knows something or has inside info?

If you had to put a number on it, how likely is it. 60%? 70%

90% for 2-3 weeks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Name a time the Dems were in control and there was a shut down.

DP. Not sure what you mean by “in control.” The “Dems” controlled the presidency in 1995 and 2013 during those govt shutdowns.

House Republicans have caused every government shutdown. They can’t pass legislation. They can’t negotiate with the Senate. They can’t negotiate with a Democratic President and sometimes not even with a Republican President. Yet fools keep electing these idiots to come to DC to fail at every part of their jobs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Name a time the Dems were in control and there was a shut down.

DP. Not sure what you mean by “in control.” The “Dems” controlled the presidency in 1995 and 2013 during those govt shutdowns.

House Republicans have caused every government shutdown. They can’t pass legislation. They can’t negotiate with the Senate. They can’t negotiate with a Democratic President and sometimes not even with a Republican President. Yet fools keep electing these idiots to come to DC to fail at every part of their jobs.

+ They couldn’t pass the agriculture spending bill because they stuffed it with stupid irrelevant anti-abortion crap.
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/20/abortion-house-appropriations-mifepristone

[Anonymous]

the media is failing us, chapter 7,342

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Since there's no conflict or negotiating goal beyond No, there's no reason for the shutdown to end sooner than the previous one. No reason to even have a shutdown, for that matter. I predict either no shutdown or a 40 day shutdown.

It took air traffic controllers what— 3 hours to end the last one? Lesson learned. This time they aren’t waiting for 40 days. And Baden isn’t Reagan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:90% chance of shutdown. If it occurs 80% chance it lasts 1 week, 20% chance it lasts 2 weeks. The oracle has spoken.

And the lowly feds will get back pay for the time missed during the shutdown. I feel soooo bad for them.

Many of us still work during a shutdown. In fact, there is never really a true shutdown - IIRC only about 1/4 of the government actually shuts down.

There are 12 appropriation bills. It all depends on if any of them get passed. Last time when 1/4 of the government shut down, there were something like 10 of the bills that passed. Only the largest one, which included about 1/4 of the DC work force, did not pass and was delayed causing those agencies included in that bill to shut down.

Is this a situation where Biden will sign any that get passed or a situation where they have to get it all done to get any of it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:90% chance of shutdown. If it occurs 80% chance it lasts 1 week, 20% chance it lasts 2 weeks. The oracle has spoken.

And the lowly feds will get back pay for the time missed during the shutdown. I feel soooo bad for them.

Many of us still work during a shutdown. In fact, there is never really a true shutdown - IIRC only about 1/4 of the government actually shuts down.

There are 12 appropriation bills. It all depends on if any of them get passed. Last time when 1/4 of the government shut down, there were something like 10 of the bills that passed. Only the largest one, which included about 1/4 of the DC work force, did not pass and was delayed causing those agencies included in that bill to shut down.

Is this a situation where Biden will sign any that get passed or a situation where they have to get it all done to get any of it?

The Senate has already passed most (all?) of them. The House can pass any or all. But the ultra right has said that they will only pass them all at once and with more cuts than had been agreed upon. So if they do that then the bills will need reconciliation and then Biden will sign them - maybe. Probably, but might depend on the cuts that the House wants.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:90% chance of shutdown. If it occurs 80% chance it lasts 1 week, 20% chance it lasts 2 weeks. The oracle has spoken.

And the lowly feds will get back pay for the time missed during the shutdown. I feel soooo bad for them.

Many of us still work during a shutdown. In fact, there is never really a true shutdown - IIRC only about 1/4 of the government actually shuts down.

There are 12 appropriation bills. It all depends on if any of them get passed. Last time when 1/4 of the government shut down, there were something like 10 of the bills that passed. Only the largest one, which included about 1/4 of the DC work force, did not pass and was delayed causing those agencies included in that bill to shut down.

Is this a situation where Biden will sign any that get passed or a situation where they have to get it all done to get any of it?

The Senate has already passed most (all?) of them. The House can pass any or all. But the ultra right has said that they will only pass them all at once and with more cuts than had been agreed upon. So if they do that then the bills will need reconciliation and then Biden will sign them - maybe. Probably, but might depend on the cuts that the House wants.

What the House Republicans are doing now has nothing to do with any real U.S. policy objectives. They’re just Putin’s puppets, trying to give control of the United States, Ukraine and the world to Putin. They’ve given us to Putin because they’re scared he’ll make their trains crash if they don’t. Cowards.