What Would It Take For Notre Dame Football To Join The Big Ten or The SEC ?

[Anonymous]

(OP here)

I asked: "What would it take for Notre Dame Football To Join The Big Ten Conference ?"

Maybe the following excessively verbose article contains a possible answer in the single bit of hard fact information given in the piece:

When Notre Dame negotiated its current soon-to-expire contract with NBC, Notre Dame home games averaged 4.4 million viewers. Currently, that figure has fallen dramatically to 2.43 million viewers per home game which reveals an astonishing drop of 45% in home game viewership.

https://theathletic.com/4673824/2023/07/12/notre-dame-football-nbc-independent/

Not sure if Notre Dame football is in any position to get $65 to $75 million per year from NBC. With the current home game viewership numbers, Notre Dame would be lucky to land a contract with NBC that paid in the $50 million per year range. An appropriate figure seems to be closer to $40 million per season rather than $50 million. With the Big Ten contract estimated to pay each Big Ten member school $90 million per year when USC & UCLA join next year, Notre Dame could be faced with earning less than 50% if it elects to remain as an independent football program. Even with a generous ACC payout to Notre Dame, Notre Dame would be looking at about 60% or less of what the Big Ten would pay. If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten Conference, individual team payouts could exceed $100 million per year.

And then there is Notre Dame's scheduling problem. As more elite football teams join the dominant conferences, Notre Dame may face difficulty scheduling top opponents since those opponents will have requirements from their conferences to play a minimum number of games against other conference members.

The article referenced & linked above is too long & boring with too few facts or hard numbers to be considered much more than a fluff piece, in my opinion. Why was it written ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:(OP here)

I asked: "What would it take for Notre Dame Football To Join The Big Ten Conference ?"

Maybe the following excessively verbose article contains a possible answer in the single bit of hard fact information given in the piece:

When Notre Dame negotiated its current soon-to-expire contract with NBC, Notre Dame home games averaged 4.4 million viewers. Currently, that figure has fallen dramatically to 2.43 million viewers per home game which reveals an astonishing drop of 45% in home game viewership.

https://theathletic.com/4673824/2023/07/12/notre-dame-football-nbc-independent/

Not sure if Notre Dame football is in any position to get $65 to $75 million per year from NBC. With the current home game viewership numbers, Notre Dame would be lucky to land a contract with NBC that paid in the $50 million per year range. An appropriate figure seems to be closer to $40 million per season rather than $50 million. With the Big Ten contract estimated to pay each Big Ten member school $90 million per year when USC & UCLA join next year, Notre Dame could be faced with earning less than 50% if it elects to remain as an independent football program. Even with a generous ACC payout to Notre Dame, Notre Dame would be looking at about 60% or less of what the Big Ten would pay. If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten Conference, individual team payouts could exceed $100 million per year.

And then there is Notre Dame's scheduling problem. As more elite football teams join the dominant conferences, Notre Dame may face difficulty scheduling top opponents since those opponents will have requirements from their conferences to play a minimum number of games against other conference members.

The article referenced & linked above is too long & boring with too few facts or hard numbers to be considered much more than a fluff piece, in my opinion. Why was it written ?

+1

[Anonymous]

Notre Dame has a solid relationship with the Big Ten Conference.

Notre Dame's ice hockey team plays in the Big Ten and, 6 weeks ago, Notre Dame hosted, & participated in, the 2023 Big Ten Plus News & Marketing Director's Conference.

https://bigtenplus.nd.edu

The "plus schools" are: Notre Dame, WashUStL, U Chicago, U Illinois at Chicago. Carnegie Mellon University is observing while considering membership.

[Anonymous]

https://theathletic.com/4670414/2023/07/13/notre-dame-big-ten-delaney/

Ask yourself: Why was this article written ?

In my view, it was written and published today (July 13, 2023) in an attempt to clear the air for negotiations between Notre Dame and the Big Ten Conference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://theathletic.com/4670414/2023/07/13/notre-dame-big-ten-delaney/

Ask yourself: Why was this article written ?

In my view, it was written and published today (July 13, 2023) in an attempt to clear the air for negotiations between Notre Dame and the Big Ten Conference.

This article was published almost 11 months ago:

https://landgrantholyland.com/2022/8/30/23328992/big-ten-football-notre-dame-shit-or-get-off-the-pot-realignment

Hopefully, all parties have moved on from the type of frustration expressed in the above linked article from 11 months ago.

It seems clear, that 3 conferences are heading to become mega-conferences (Big 12, SEC, & the Big Ten) while the futures of the Pac-12 and the ACC are in doubt. The two dominant football conferences--the SEC & the Big Ten--are the only possible conference homes for Notre Dame if it wants big money and a realistic shot at competing for a national championship title in college football.

Both the SEC & the Big Ten are ready to welcome Notre Dame to their respective conferences. Past issues between the Big Ten and Notre Dame need to be relegated to the past; all parties need to look forward accepting the realities of today and the likely realities of the future.

Let me suggest an opening dialogue:

Big Ten to Notre Dame: We love you !

Notre Dame to Big Ten: prove it !

Big Ten: Would a $100 million plus annual annuity put the sparkle back in your eyes ?

Notre Dame: Oh darling, I love you too ! I really, really love you ! How can I prove my love to you ?

Big Ten: Just sign here, here, and here, and initial these pages and phrases. Then, we can proceed with the honeymoon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://theathletic.com/4670414/2023/07/13/notre-dame-big-ten-delaney/

Ask yourself: Why was this article written ?

In my view, it was written and published today (July 13, 2023) in an attempt to clear the air for negotiations between Notre Dame and the Big Ten Conference.

This article was published almost 11 months ago:

https://landgrantholyland.com/2022/8/30/23328992/big-ten-football-notre-dame-shit-or-get-off-the-pot-realignment

Hopefully, all parties have moved on from the type of frustration expressed in the above linked article from 11 months ago.

It seems clear, that 3 conferences are heading to become mega-conferences (Big 12, SEC, & the Big Ten) while the futures of the Pac-12 and the ACC are in doubt. The two dominant football conferences--the SEC & the Big Ten--are the only possible conference homes for Notre Dame if it wants big money and a realistic shot at competing for a national championship title in college football.

Both the SEC & the Big Ten are ready to welcome Notre Dame to their respective conferences. Past issues between the Big Ten and Notre Dame need to be relegated to the past; all parties need to look forward accepting the realities of today and the likely realities of the future.

Let me suggest an opening dialogue:

Big Ten to Notre Dame: We love you !

Notre Dame to Big Ten: prove it !

Big Ten: Would a $100 million plus annual annuity put the sparkle back in your eyes ?

Notre Dame: Oh darling, I love you too ! I really, really love you ! How can I prove my love to you ?

Big Ten: Just sign here, here, and here, and initial these pages and phrases. Then, we can proceed with the honeymoon.

As long as the other Big 10 heavyweights will also receive a $100 million plus annual annuity, it could work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://theathletic.com/4670414/2023/07/13/notre-dame-big-ten-delaney/

Ask yourself: Why was this article written ?

In my view, it was written and published today (July 13, 2023) in an attempt to clear the air for negotiations between Notre Dame and the Big Ten Conference.

This article was published almost 11 months ago:

https://landgrantholyland.com/2022/8/30/23328992/big-ten-football-notre-dame-shit-or-get-off-the-pot-realignment

Hopefully, all parties have moved on from the type of frustration expressed in the above linked article from 11 months ago.

It seems clear, that 3 conferences are heading to become mega-conferences (Big 12, SEC, & the Big Ten) while the futures of the Pac-12 and the ACC are in doubt. The two dominant football conferences--the SEC & the Big Ten--are the only possible conference homes for Notre Dame if it wants big money and a realistic shot at competing for a national championship title in college football.

Both the SEC & the Big Ten are ready to welcome Notre Dame to their respective conferences. Past issues between the Big Ten and Notre Dame need to be relegated to the past; all parties need to look forward accepting the realities of today and the likely realities of the future.

Let me suggest an opening dialogue:

Big Ten to Notre Dame: We love you !

Notre Dame to Big Ten: prove it !

Big Ten: Would a $100 million plus annual annuity put the sparkle back in your eyes ?

Notre Dame: Oh darling, I love you too ! I really, really love you ! How can I prove my love to you ?

Big Ten: Just sign here, here, and here, and initial these pages and phrases. Then, we can proceed with the honeymoon.

As long as the other Big 10 heavyweights will also receive a $100 million plus annual annuity, it could work.

Actually, that is the projected amount that each & every Big Ten Conference member (not just the heavyweights) would receive annually under the current TV media rights agreement if Notre Dame joins after USC & UCLA are on board.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:(OP here)

I asked: "What would it take for Notre Dame Football To Join The Big Ten Conference ?"

Maybe the following excessively verbose article contains a possible answer in the single bit of hard fact information given in the piece:

When Notre Dame negotiated its current soon-to-expire contract with NBC, Notre Dame home games averaged 4.4 million viewers. Currently, that figure has fallen dramatically to 2.43 million viewers per home game which reveals an astonishing drop of 45% in home game viewership.

https://theathletic.com/4673824/2023/07/12/notre-dame-football-nbc-independent/

Not sure if Notre Dame football is in any position to get $65 to $75 million per year from NBC. With the current home game viewership numbers, Notre Dame would be lucky to land a contract with NBC that paid in the $50 million per year range. An appropriate figure seems to be closer to $40 million per season rather than $50 million. With the Big Ten contract estimated to pay each Big Ten member school $90 million per year when USC & UCLA join next year, Notre Dame could be faced with earning less than 50% if it elects to remain as an independent football program. Even with a generous ACC payout to Notre Dame, Notre Dame would be looking at about 60% or less of what the Big Ten would pay. If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten Conference, individual team payouts could exceed $100 million per year.

And then there is Notre Dame's scheduling problem. As more elite football teams join the dominant conferences, Notre Dame may face difficulty scheduling top opponents since those opponents will have requirements from their conferences to play a minimum number of games against other conference members.

The article referenced & linked above is too long & boring with too few facts or hard numbers to be considered much more than a fluff piece, in my opinion. Why was it written ?

If ND isn't worth the money to NBC, why would the be worth it to the Big10?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:(OP here)

I asked: "What would it take for Notre Dame Football To Join The Big Ten Conference ?"

Maybe the following excessively verbose article contains a possible answer in the single bit of hard fact information given in the piece:

When Notre Dame negotiated its current soon-to-expire contract with NBC, Notre Dame home games averaged 4.4 million viewers. Currently, that figure has fallen dramatically to 2.43 million viewers per home game which reveals an astonishing drop of 45% in home game viewership.

https://theathletic.com/4673824/2023/07/12/notre-dame-football-nbc-independent/

Not sure if Notre Dame football is in any position to get $65 to $75 million per year from NBC. With the current home game viewership numbers, Notre Dame would be lucky to land a contract with NBC that paid in the $50 million per year range. An appropriate figure seems to be closer to $40 million per season rather than $50 million. With the Big Ten contract estimated to pay each Big Ten member school $90 million per year when USC & UCLA join next year, Notre Dame could be faced with earning less than 50% if it elects to remain as an independent football program. Even with a generous ACC payout to Notre Dame, Notre Dame would be looking at about 60% or less of what the Big Ten would pay. If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten Conference, individual team payouts could exceed $100 million per year.

And then there is Notre Dame's scheduling problem. As more elite football teams join the dominant conferences, Notre Dame may face difficulty scheduling top opponents since those opponents will have requirements from their conferences to play a minimum number of games against other conference members.

The article referenced & linked above is too long & boring with too few facts or hard numbers to be considered much more than a fluff piece, in my opinion. Why was it written ?

If ND isn't worth the money to NBC, why would the be worth it to the Big10?

Great question.

Notre Dame/Big Ten matchups will draw significantly more viewers than ND/ACC or ND/Navy, etc. Additionally, ND may experience difficulty scheduling marquee opponents as the SEC and Big Ten grow into mega-conference size. Will cause SEC & Big Ten revenues to continue to increase while ND's viewership numbers will likely continue to decline without bigtime rivalry games.

This is a case where the whole is worth more than the sum of its parts.

Regardless, the current Big Ten-Fox-CBS-NBC TV rights contract contains an escalator clause that is estimated to produce $100 million or more annual payout to each Big Ten team if notre Dame joins.

[Anonymous]

And, we really do not know how much NBC is willing to pay for Notre Dame's regular season home games under a new contract.

Also, CFP playoff money is shared among Big Ten teams. The more teams the Big Ten has in the 12 team CFP, the more money for the conference to share regardless of whether ND has a good season or a bad season.

[Anonymous]

I think this is about money and control. Certainly, there is a number of millions that would make it worthwhile for both sides for ND to join the Big10. That's just old-school negotiations.

The thing that may be hold back ND is control. If they join the Big10, they get another layer of bureaucracy that wants to poke around on their schedule, NIL arrangements, recruiting, commercial partners and association with various initiatives, such as inclusivity.

ND may decide that the money isn't worth giving up the control that they currently have.

[Anonymous]

From June 8, 2023:

https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/lists/big-ten-opponents-notre-dame-should-play-annually-if-it-ever-joins/

The article lists 7 Big Ten opponents, but fails to include Penn State. Pennsylvania has a large Catholic population & Pennsylvania is a major football state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think this is about money and control. Certainly, there is a number of millions that would make it worthwhile for both sides for ND to join the Big10. That's just old-school negotiations.

The thing that may be hold back ND is control. If they join the Big10, they get another layer of bureaucracy that wants to poke around on their schedule, NIL arrangements, recruiting, commercial partners and association with various initiatives, such as inclusivity.

ND may decide that the money isn't worth giving up the control that they currently have.

Everything has a price in the world of bigtime college athletics. If the separation in annual payout widens between Notre Dame and the Big Ten/SEC, Notre Dame's football program will suffer. Notre Dame aims for the national championship in football and the most likely path is as a member of one of the two major conferences--the Big Ten and the SEC.

[Anonymous]

A couple of points:

If the Big10 added ND -- there would indeed be a renegotiation of the TV deal. That is in the agreement -- any member gains or losses trigger a renegotiation

I don't see ND joining the Big10 unless the ACC implodes which it might. The rights deal keeps the ACC together unless the schools vote to end the deal. The SEC wants a bunch of schools but those schools are not enough to undue the rights deal. I could see a set of schools looking to leave the ACC for the SEC and a set of schools looking to leave the ACC for the Big10. Then payments to the others plus conference homes for them. That would undue the rights deal. I then think ND joins the Big10 although in that case the SEC will make them an offer.

But the Big10 and the SEC will have to take more of the ACC schools than they each want. I do not think they have to take all but between them they will need to take 11-12 of the ACC schools leaving only 3-4 with cash ad other conferences.

BC, Duke, and Louisville would need SEC or Big10 homes or they would never agree. I think Pitt, Wake, Syracuse could be bought off. Maybe Louisville. BC and Duke don't care about the money only the conference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A couple of points:

If the Big10 added ND -- there would indeed be a renegotiation of the TV deal. That is in the agreement -- any member gains or losses trigger a renegotiation

I don't see ND joining the Big10 unless the ACC implodes which it might. The rights deal keeps the ACC together unless the schools vote to end the deal. The SEC wants a bunch of schools but those schools are not enough to undue the rights deal. I could see a set of schools looking to leave the ACC for the SEC and a set of schools looking to leave the ACC for the Big10. Then payments to the others plus conference homes for them. That would undue the rights deal. I then think ND joins the Big10 although in that case the SEC will make them an offer.

But the Big10 and the SEC will have to take more of the ACC schools than they each want. I do not think they have to take all but between them they will need to take 11-12 of the ACC schools leaving only 3-4 with cash ad other conferences.

BC, Duke, and Louisville would need SEC or Big10 homes or they would never agree. I think Pitt, Wake, Syracuse could be bought off. Maybe Louisville. BC and Duke don't care about the money only the conference.

How long before that ACC GOR becomes simply intolerable for the schools (FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC) that would almost certainly be snatched up by the B1G/SEC. Tens of millions of dollars lost every year…