2001, 2008, or 2022

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

+1
Some folks here sound like novices who just started in on this game. Sit back guys, relax, it will all be OK in the end. Even after the 1929 crash the average investor recovered after 5 years. Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. There are no short cuts (there is LUCK, but only for a few). Play the long game.

Try again. An investor buying at the highs in 1929 did not recover those investments until ~1955.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/fundamentals.html

Lol do you think the Great Depression has any value in understanding the current market? Take that data point out. It’s silly because the world was so different. Banks actually held cash, there was a run on backs, no technology, etc

We The only true financial disaster that’s remotely comparable to todays world is 2008. It took 4 years to recoup
If you remained invested, less if you were diversified. Yawn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

Are you a teenager? You sound like you're overly emotional.... it's going to be one of two polar opposite extremes?!?!?!? Really? You have no clue... idiot.

Sure, what's your thoughts? The stock market always goes up? LOL. Try reading some history on the Japanese stock market bubble from the 80's and how long it took for an investor buying at the highs to break even.

Oh yea, let’s compare the Japanese index on DCUM. Stop grasping.

Every single data point in the world shows the US stock market always goes up. Show me one example of the Dow, S&P, Russell 2000, or Nasdaq never going up? I’ll wait.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the reirement withdrawal calculators (4% SWR) use 60% equities/40% fixed income or similar scenario. So you've got your money at that allocation which will support your withdrawal rates. A portfolio just in cash will not support the withdrawals for long.

I have NO idea how I could stomach this kind of uncertainty and volatility whild being retired!! How is one supposed to have a relaxing retirement worrying about the stock market??

I'm very worried for my inlaws. My FIL has a pension that is in trouble, so no guarantee there. They then have their 401K which is declining by the day. They also still have a mortgage because they sold their NOVA house for a 700K net profit, financed 400K in a new home and invested the 700K. Bad move in hindsight, but it seemed good at the time. Even though heir mortgage is a 2.75 they are losing money in the market. They would have been better off buying the house in cash.

How old are they? As long as they have cashflow to cover them over the next couple of years, they should be fine. Markets eventually recover. If it doesn't, have the write over the house to you guys and move into your house. That's what we are doing with my in-laws (2 siblings take turns actually).

I’d pay their mortgage before I’d have them move here
FIL smokes a d listens to the news at deafening levels all day long.

LOL. Mine (FIL and MIL) do the same *and* watch videos their friends send them at high volume at the same time . Annoying of course but I treat it as a character building exercise for myself.. I have an app on my phone to reduce the TV volume if it gets to be too much.

I grew up with 3 generations in my household (4 at one point) and want my kids to go through the joys and annoyances of such an existence. Need someone to deal with me when I'm old, don't I? Not too optimistic that full-service fembots will be invented by then..

[Anonymous]

Hmm, I think the market is going to improve. Why? We refinanced our house about 8 months or so ago. We went through a mortgage broker. We have refinanced with him 2 times before over the years. He typically sells off loans ASAP. Not this time! He had to sit on it for 8+ months. Our loan was just sold off, which tells me banks are as worried anymore and see improvement in inflation, interest and the markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hmm, I think the market is going to improve. Why? We refinanced our house about 8 months or so ago. We went through a mortgage broker. We have refinanced with him 2 times before over the years. He typically sells off loans ASAP. Not this time! He had to sit on it for 8+ months. Our loan was just sold off, which tells me banks are NOT as worried anymore and see improvement in inflation, interest and the markets.

Fix

[Anonymous]

Would be awesome if inflation soars temporarily and the 30 year bond hits the 15% level it did in the 80s. Will invest a mil. and be all set for the next couple of decades. Sadly, out much more sophisticated Fed will not let that happen. I'll settle for 8-10%.

[Anonymous]

Welp, here we go...the next three days are going to make or break this market. Any weakness and it is toast.

Foxconn affected by Chinese closures....let's see if Apple has anything to say about future iPhone sales. I'm not holding my breath that they'll be able to shake it off like nothing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hmm, I think the market is going to improve. Why? We refinanced our house about 8 months or so ago. We went through a mortgage broker. We have refinanced with him 2 times before over the years. He typically sells off loans ASAP. Not this time! He had to sit on it for 8+ months. Our loan was just sold off, which tells me banks are as worried anymore and see improvement in inflation, interest and the markets.

This is one of the dumbest things I’ve read. Sorry, but are you kidding me?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

+1
Some folks here sound like novices who just started in on this game. Sit back guys, relax, it will all be OK in the end. Even after the 1929 crash the average investor recovered after 5 years. Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. There are no short cuts (there is LUCK, but only for a few). Play the long game.

Try again. An investor buying at the highs in 1929 did not recover those investments until ~1955.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/fundamentals.html

I said the average investor, which is true as there were no index funds back then and FDIC did not exist for banks. The link is fake data, because the s&p was founded in 1957. Buy hey, you do you. Invest or don't - it doesn't impact me... but I do have to say, you sound like you make bad decisions on unfounded data, but again, doesn't impact me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

+1
Some folks here sound like novices who just started in on this game. Sit back guys, relax, it will all be OK in the end. Even after the 1929 crash the average investor recovered after 5 years. Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. There are no short cuts (there is LUCK, but only for a few). Play the long game.

Try again. An investor buying at the highs in 1929 did not recover those investments until ~1955.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/fundamentals.html

Lol do you think the Great Depression has any value in understanding the current market? Take that data point out. It’s silly because the world was so different. Banks actually held cash, there was a run on backs, no technology, etc

We The only true financial disaster that’s remotely comparable to todays world is 2008. It took 4 years to recoup
If you remained invested, less if you were diversified. Yawn.

+1 I agree with you. The PP that you were responding to clearly has no clue.

[Anonymous]

01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

These posters freak out every time the market drops. If you go back to threads on any bad day or series of days they all read the same. And if you imply they are overreacting, you are a blind, ignorant moron.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

First of all, I agree with you.
Here's what's happening. Nothing is collapsing. We have supply chain issues, due to the pandemic and probably Russia now (energy). Our government flooded the market with money, the stimulus checks, and we got inflation (surprised? Not me). Then war breaks out and a large source of European energy is cut off. Prices from some of those good will rise. This has a knock on effect to other goods because the cost of shipping has now risen and energy routes have changed. Meanwhile the government implemented interest rate hikes to help control inflation. People put more money in bonds than stocks, and stock market burbs. People freak out at the little burp. The government stated several more interest rate hikes, which means stock will bounce around for a year or two. Don't freak out, it's normal.... look at the 80s when inflation and interest were higher. Honestly, people here freaking out were probably not born in the 80s and are too emotional to look at the free data all over the internet about this.

As far as a collapse- the only thing that may collapse is crypto. Rich Russians have to park their money somewhere, especially with the sanctions. Honestly, I'm too conservative to invest in it. I like money, real money, and I'd like to keep it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:01 wasn’t bad at all, unless you were all tech invested and/or worked in tech.

08 was terrible, unemployment and investments, we were close to a total financial collapse due to the housing bubble and leverage

22 ?? What is collapsing? Stocks are down 10%, this is just regular market moves, happens every few years. Where is the meltdown coming from. No collapse in housing, may decline a bit due to mortgage rates but there is no foreclosure crisis based on better lending standards. Company profits look solid. Maybe there is some mystery bubble in finance but nobody can predict that one.

First of all, I agree with you.
Here's what's happening. Nothing is collapsing. We have supply chain issues, due to the pandemic and probably Russia now (energy). Our government flooded the market with money, the stimulus checks, and we got inflation (surprised? Not me). Then war breaks out and a large source of European energy is cut off. Prices from some of those good will rise. This has a knock on effect to other goods because the cost of shipping has now risen and energy routes have changed. Meanwhile the government implemented interest rate hikes to help control inflation. People put more money in bonds than stocks, and stock market burbs. People freak out at the little burp. The government stated several more interest rate hikes, which means stock will bounce around for a year or two. Don't freak out, it's normal.... look at the 80s when inflation and interest were higher. Honestly, people here freaking out were probably not born in the 80s and are too emotional to look at the free data all over the internet about this.

As far as a collapse- the only thing that may collapse is crypto. Rich Russians have to park their money somewhere, especially with the sanctions. Honestly, I'm too conservative to invest in it. I like money, real money, and I'd like to keep it.

Huh? Crypto is mostly unregulated. This comment makes zero sense

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think 2022 is anything like previous crashes. We are barely in correction territory. Compare to historical crashes, it hasn't been that bad (yet).

It feels so much worse.

Were you in diapers in 2008? The stock market swing were headline news everyday. Everybody I mean everybody became a stock index watcher. Banks were failing, FDIC was swooping in.

We have a wobble and are still up for the last 3 years.

I hardly had any money in the market in 2008.

Even if you didn’t (we didn’t have near as much either in our mid 20s), the job losses were SO devastating. And if you were lucky enough to to keep your job, you didn’t get a pay raise for 4 or so years. 2008 has still held my DH and I back in some respects, professionally and financially.