Middle Schools for Cap Hill

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.

mmm pretty sure it’s just about every 4th grade family - or if not they will be lotterying and exploring moving after 5th. some will stay, and there do seem to be an increasing # trying EH and SH because they have no other options. And obviously nobody stays for HS.

Excluding the "mmm" you just replied to agree with everything I wrote. Many do - check. Some return by choice, some based on bad luck and lack of means - check. Increasing # trying upper ES and SH - check.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

not accepting the facts does zero good for anyone. seriously. you’re in denial about how bad ward 7 and 8 schools are, and you persist in it because it makes you feel self righteous. in contrast I want all DC kids (and PG kids lol) to have access to high quality schools. I have no issue with the kids added to our school - I just wish we got the additional staff we need to support them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.

My lord, the Men Girls are all out in full force this morning. You just "+1" to agree with a post that expressed with absolute certainty that they "know" what's happening this year and in the future, and you followed it up with a thoughtful post about how trends aren't one year in the making, acknowledging trends in pre-covid times are the opposite of what the person you "agreed" with said. And you concluded with what I think is a fair statement that no one knows what trends will or won't continue as covid abates.

So other than wanting to back Muffy so you can tell her how much you love her and her hair at the next book club meeting, tell me how you actually agree with her post? And how you disagree with my posts arguing the people who claim to "know" simply do not?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.

mmm pretty sure it’s just about every 4th grade family - or if not they will be lotterying and exploring moving after 5th. some will stay, and there do seem to be an increasing # trying EH and SH because they have no other options. And obviously nobody stays for HS.

Excluding the "mmm" you just replied to agree with everything I wrote. Many do - check. Some return by choice, some based on bad luck and lack of means - check. Increasing # trying upper ES and SH - check.

right. my point is that there is not something magical that happened at EH and SH to improve those schools and change the behavior of all Hill 4th grade families (to try the lottery.) Unless you think the presence of a few white kids totally changes a school, the situation has not changed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

not accepting the facts does zero good for anyone. seriously. you’re in denial about how bad ward 7 and 8 schools are, and you persist in it because it makes you feel self righteous. in contrast I want all DC kids (and PG kids lol) to have access to high quality schools. I have no issue with the kids added to our school - I just wish we got the additional staff we need to support them.

There it is. You said the quiet part out loud. It isn't "YOUR SCHOOL". It belongs to all of DC and it is the school of anyone who attends. You view it as an "us vs. them". That's not how this works.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.

My lord, the Men Girls are all out in full force this morning. You just "+1" to agree with a post that expressed with absolute certainty that they "know" what's happening this year and in the future, and you followed it up with a thoughtful post about how trends aren't one year in the making, acknowledging trends in pre-covid times are the opposite of what the person you "agreed" with said. And you concluded with what I think is a fair statement that no one knows what trends will or won't continue as covid abates.

So other than wanting to back Muffy so you can tell her how much you love her and her hair at the next book club meeting, tell me how you actually agree with her post? And how you disagree with my posts arguing the people who claim to "know" simply do not?

Lol I think I am Muffy in this scenario. The point is - you seem to be trying to make a boosterish argument about the improvement of Hill MS. We are saying that the overall situation is exactly the same, even if there are some small changes in dynamics. Anyways we’ll see about EH PARCC scores and retention this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

not accepting the facts does zero good for anyone. seriously. you’re in denial about how bad ward 7 and 8 schools are, and you persist in it because it makes you feel self righteous. in contrast I want all DC kids (and PG kids lol) to have access to high quality schools. I have no issue with the kids added to our school - I just wish we got the additional staff we need to support them.

There it is. You said the quiet part out loud. It isn't "YOUR SCHOOL". It belongs to all of DC and it is the school of anyone who attends. You view it as an "us vs. them". That's not how this works.

This is a dumb take. People talk about “their” school on DCUM all the time. It’s not an “us v them” thing. It’s an identifying thing. “Our school” has science, but only because the PTO essentially pays for half of it. If I didn’t say “our school,” people would accuse me of making generalizations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

not accepting the facts does zero good for anyone. seriously. you’re in denial about how bad ward 7 and 8 schools are, and you persist in it because it makes you feel self righteous. in contrast I want all DC kids (and PG kids lol) to have access to high quality schools. I have no issue with the kids added to our school - I just wish we got the additional staff we need to support them.

There it is. You said the quiet part out loud. It isn't "YOUR SCHOOL". It belongs to all of DC and it is the school of anyone who attends. You view it as an "us vs. them". That's not how this works.

Oh yes you caught me It’s “our school” because we are IB families there since PK. The new students are newcomers especially if they lottery in at 5th (which is how this argument got started). I wonder if you pay as much attention to turns of phrase that offend you as to the reasons a family lotteries in at 5th or fakes an address. Or about how OUR school is caught flat-footed without the necessary support staff for higher needs students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

not accepting the facts does zero good for anyone. seriously. you’re in denial about how bad ward 7 and 8 schools are, and you persist in it because it makes you feel self righteous. in contrast I want all DC kids (and PG kids lol) to have access to high quality schools. I have no issue with the kids added to our school - I just wish we got the additional staff we need to support them.

There it is. You said the quiet part out loud. It isn't "YOUR SCHOOL". It belongs to all of DC and it is the school of anyone who attends. You view it as an "us vs. them". That's not how this works.

This is a dumb take. People talk about “their” school on DCUM all the time. It’s not an “us v them” thing. It’s an identifying thing. “Our school” has science, but only because the PTO essentially pays for half of it. If I didn’t say “our school,” people would accuse me of making generalizations.

Right. And grammatically it is “our” school at the moment the new kids lottery in. apparently I cannot use a possessive pronoun without being racist. meanwhile PP cares zero amount about helping DC kids whose IB MS is so bad that EH is an improvement.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.

mmm pretty sure it’s just about every 4th grade family - or if not they will be lotterying and exploring moving after 5th. some will stay, and there do seem to be an increasing # trying EH and SH because they have no other options. And obviously nobody stays for HS.

Excluding the "mmm" you just replied to agree with everything I wrote. Many do - check. Some return by choice, some based on bad luck and lack of means - check. Increasing # trying upper ES and SH - check.

right. my point is that there is not something magical that happened at EH and SH to improve those schools and change the behavior of all Hill 4th grade families (to try the lottery.) Unless you think the presence of a few white kids totally changes a school, the situation has not changed.

I think we can agree when the word "white" is used it is a placeholder (probably a bad one) for UMC families who are more likely than not to also be IB. Now getting that housekeeping issue out of the way...

I am not arguing for a magical outcome. You confuse me with all of the people with whom you think you agree that don't understand trends over a number of years and that there is no one year or two year solution. Buy-in happens over a period of years. MS and ES don't improve because the offering or school changes, it changes because of the demo and kids in the school. LT didn't move out of Tier 1 because of some dramatic shift in the school or some pedagogy change (which is something only young parents care about). It changed and improved because the area gentrified and the kids stayed instead of going to Maury and Brent (which was at the beginning due in large part to those schools being closed off to non-IB kids).

The presence of a "few" high performing kids does change a school, especially in MS. And the presence of a few more ear after year is how dramatic change happens. If you have a large enough cohort to support advanced material then a school can fill a whole class with kids at or above grade level. The reason Deal has more "tracking" (I know, we aren't supposed to talk about it, like Bruno) is that they have a critical mass. There is also a tipping point where enough evidence is present to suggest to other UMC families that the should send their kids there that things can change more rapidly than a slow drip of 4-6 kids per year. That happened at LT, as you observed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.

My lord, the Men Girls are all out in full force this morning. You just "+1" to agree with a post that expressed with absolute certainty that they "know" what's happening this year and in the future, and you followed it up with a thoughtful post about how trends aren't one year in the making, acknowledging trends in pre-covid times are the opposite of what the person you "agreed" with said. And you concluded with what I think is a fair statement that no one knows what trends will or won't continue as covid abates.

So other than wanting to back Muffy so you can tell her how much you love her and her hair at the next book club meeting, tell me how you actually agree with her post? And how you disagree with my posts arguing the people who claim to "know" simply do not?

PP here. You get this is an anonymous board, right? I don't know any of you and could care less what you think of me. Definitely not trying to score points with anyone to get into a book club. What on earth.

I was agreeing with the point that once people get to 4th grade, or MS, even the people who were most vocal about investing in IB schools and improving the MS feed will do a lottery application. I've done it, people I know have done it. Anecdotal, of course, but what I have found to be true is that by 4th/5th grade your kid is talking about MS with all their friends, you have a good sense of who is lettering and what their preferences are, and it is the rare parent who tell their kid "No, we are going to stay with the IB and not even look at charters or other options." I personally know parents who really wanted to do the IB MS but wound up doing a lottery application and sending their kid to BASIS because it was what their kid wanted and they ultimately did not want to force their kid to attend a school they didn't want to attend, when most of their friends were going elsewhere.

The PP you call "Muffy" (lol) was saying something that I see reflected in my own experience. Sorry if you think that makes us "Mean Girls". I doubt I know PP in real life and am not trying to score social points here, but whatever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.

mmm pretty sure it’s just about every 4th grade family - or if not they will be lotterying and exploring moving after 5th. some will stay, and there do seem to be an increasing # trying EH and SH because they have no other options. And obviously nobody stays for HS.

Excluding the "mmm" you just replied to agree with everything I wrote. Many do - check. Some return by choice, some based on bad luck and lack of means - check. Increasing # trying upper ES and SH - check.

right. my point is that there is not something magical that happened at EH and SH to improve those schools and change the behavior of all Hill 4th grade families (to try the lottery.) Unless you think the presence of a few white kids totally changes a school, the situation has not changed.

I think we can agree when the word "white" is used it is a placeholder (probably a bad one) for UMC families who are more likely than not to also be IB. Now getting that housekeeping issue out of the way...

I am not arguing for a magical outcome. You confuse me with all of the people with whom you think you agree that don't understand trends over a number of years and that there is no one year or two year solution. Buy-in happens over a period of years. MS and ES don't improve because the offering or school changes, it changes because of the demo and kids in the school. LT didn't move out of Tier 1 because of some dramatic shift in the school or some pedagogy change (which is something only young parents care about). It changed and improved because the area gentrified and the kids stayed instead of going to Maury and Brent (which was at the beginning due in large part to those schools being closed off to non-IB kids).

The presence of a "few" high performing kids does change a school, especially in MS. And the presence of a few more ear after year is how dramatic change happens. If you have a large enough cohort to support advanced material then a school can fill a whole class with kids at or above grade level. The reason Deal has more "tracking" (I know, we aren't supposed to talk about it, like Bruno) is that they have a critical mass. There is also a tipping point where enough evidence is present to suggest to other UMC families that the should send their kids there that things can change more rapidly than a slow drip of 4-6 kids per year. That happened at LT, as you observed.

I think our point is that that is not happening, and will not happen unless/until DCPS affirmatively creates the programs at under enrolled schools. And yes I think it is racist to use white kids as a proxy for “good” school. I would be fine sending my kid to EH as is if they had a dedicated advanced curriculum and kept the school safe. Signed, white parent who will be considering Banneker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.

My lord, the Men Girls are all out in full force this morning. You just "+1" to agree with a post that expressed with absolute certainty that they "know" what's happening this year and in the future, and you followed it up with a thoughtful post about how trends aren't one year in the making, acknowledging trends in pre-covid times are the opposite of what the person you "agreed" with said. And you concluded with what I think is a fair statement that no one knows what trends will or won't continue as covid abates.

So other than wanting to back Muffy so you can tell her how much you love her and her hair at the next book club meeting, tell me how you actually agree with her post? And how you disagree with my posts arguing the people who claim to "know" simply do not?

PP here. You get this is an anonymous board, right? I don't know any of you and could care less what you think of me. Definitely not trying to score points with anyone to get into a book club. What on earth.

I was agreeing with the point that once people get to 4th grade, or MS, even the people who were most vocal about investing in IB schools and improving the MS feed will do a lottery application. I've done it, people I know have done it. Anecdotal, of course, but what I have found to be true is that by 4th/5th grade your kid is talking about MS with all their friends, you have a good sense of who is lettering and what their preferences are, and it is the rare parent who tell their kid "No, we are going to stay with the IB and not even look at charters or other options." I personally know parents who really wanted to do the IB MS but wound up doing a lottery application and sending their kid to BASIS because it was what their kid wanted and they ultimately did not want to force their kid to attend a school they didn't want to attend, when most of their friends were going elsewhere.

The PP you call "Muffy" (lol) was saying something that I see reflected in my own experience. Sorry if you think that makes us "Mean Girls". I doubt I know PP in real life and am not trying to score social points here, but whatever.

You go girl. See ya in the book club (and love the hair!)

-Muffy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it.

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.

I also think the increase in families staying for 5th is most likely a result of “escape” middle schools (BASIS and Latin) getting harder to crack. This is why I think numbers will drop even further this year, with the addition of Latin II.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.”

What is really concerning are some of the racial undertones in some of the other PPs. There is no way of knowing the SES or educational achievement of any of the new kids in 5th grade unless you're just making assumptions...

Sure there is. It’s well discussed in our school that the upper grade lottery admits have “higher needs.” Lotterying into (or boundary frauding into) an elementary school with a bad MS doesn’t result suggest a family with ample means. I’m happy to have them in our school; I just feel bad that Ward 7 and 8 are so terrible that our MS is an improvement to them.

Being Pollyanish about this stuff helps nobody.

I find it funny that families who live IB for Brent talk about people that don't have "ample means" as if they are paying 60k/yr for private school. If it makes you feel better to pretend like by living IB for Brent you are rich then go on with your bad self. Also, love the assumption that someone who doesn't look like you or belong to your book club surely must be committing boundary fraud to be attending school with Molly and Dylan.

You must be one of those Tucker viewers who thinks that racism isn't racism if you claim you are just being real.

not accepting the facts does zero good for anyone. seriously. you’re in denial about how bad ward 7 and 8 schools are, and you persist in it because it makes you feel self righteous. in contrast I want all DC kids (and PG kids lol) to have access to high quality schools. I have no issue with the kids added to our school - I just wish we got the additional staff we need to support them.

There it is. You said the quiet part out loud. It isn't "YOUR SCHOOL". It belongs to all of DC and it is the school of anyone who attends. You view it as an "us vs. them". That's not how this works.

This is a dumb take. People talk about “their” school on DCUM all the time. It’s not an “us v them” thing. It’s an identifying thing. “Our school” has science, but only because the PTO essentially pays for half of it. If I didn’t say “our school,” people would accuse me of making generalizations.

So would it be alright if "your" PTO paid for science at all schools instead of just "your" school?