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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.” [/quote]

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.   [/quote]

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it. [/quote]

One, not "every 4th grade family" does. You simply don't know that to be true. You know that you and your friends do and that's great for you. But when you say things like that you prove my point for me. Not everyone is like you - you present a pretty self centered world view to assume everyone is. Two, whether people try the lottery and whether they return are two totally different things. You have introduced a completely separate concept of "desire" versus "outcome". The issue is which kids ultimately return, not which ones would go to GDS or Latin if they had the means or lottery luck. Whatever the reason kids return for 5th or SH for 6th the result is an increase in white, UMC IB kids. We know from experience that more people will consider sticking around if more people who look like them and are academically similarly situated are in the school.   [/quote]

mmm pretty sure it’s just about every 4th grade family - or if not they will be lotterying and exploring moving after 5th. some will stay, and there do seem to be an increasing # trying EH and SH because they have no other options. And obviously nobody stays for HS. 
[/quote]

Excluding the "mmm" you just replied to agree with everything I wrote. Many do - check. Some return by choice, some based on bad luck and lack of means - check. Increasing # trying upper ES and SH - check. 
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