Arlington "missing middle"

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:How about as a thought experiment we see if the net effect of this is to raise or lower the price of houses in Arlington? My bet is on raising. Tearing down a 900K house and building three 1.1 million townhomes does not solve an affordability crisis. Plus the price of land just jumped considerably.

Also for fun, will this make Arlington more or less diverse? My bet is on less.

Oh sure, it is well known that when you increase the supply of something, the price goes up.

Wait, what?

What you are missing is the old Arlington real estate market is now dead. Every single lot in Arlington just got a lot more $$$. Before you could build one house. Now you can build 6. Some lots will now be worth double what they were before. Wait and see. This is not going to make the market more affordable.

So the number of housing units that can be put on a lot will increase sixfold, while the price of the lot only doubles, but that won't make more units more affordable for more people? Huh.

Listen. Anything 4 and above is likely to be an apartment. The money to be made here is duplexes and townhomes which will sell on a unit basis. I did the math for you before, but I'll try again. Right now there is a lot in Lyon Park that sold for $900K. A developer is going to build three townhomes on it for $1.1 million each. (And make a killing, by the way, but that same lot will now sell for $1.5.) So you replace one unit that cost $900K with three units that cost $1.1 million. Cost per unit goes up. That's the math.

No, the math is the cost of a single McMansion on the lot, times the odds that the existing house would be turned into a McMansion under previous zoning. I don’t know why NIMBYs keep ignoring this. The status quo isn’t that every older house gets bought by a family who wants to live there. It’s that a hundred seventy older houses that could be candidates for missing middle, get turned into McMansions instead.

Yes we know why. When you continually state a falsehood after being demonstrated that the assertion is false, then the falsehood is a feature not a bug.

Just as the NIMBYs' overwrought fears about MMH are rooted in fantasy, so too is their political strength. They showed last Fall that they could only muster 30% of the vote for the anti-MMH candidate. Now in the Democratic primary they're hoping that they can squeeze through one of the anti-MMH people. Perhaps they'll get one even with ranked choice voting just because there are two seats up simultaneously. Perhaps.

But I'm guessing "no". The NIMBYs have a lot of land in Arlington (b/c SFH lots) but not a lot of people when all is said and done.

Audrey Clement is a local joke an an idiot to boot. And even at this moment, most of Arlington still has no idea what missing middle even is or what just happened. Stop pretending the last election was a referendum on this. It was not. The next one will be, though.

The Republicans would have raced to run a candidate if they thought they could have exploited this and won. But they didn’t.

Instead, the Republicans such as Cunningham and Roy are running in the Democratic primary. They’re hoping to get their people out in a low-turnout primary, betting that more, uh, “Democratic” Democrats get cocky and sit out the race.

The Peter Rousselot, John Vihstadt opposition doesn’t have anything but some fearful SFH owners. They can’t grow their base because they don’t have arguments or evidence that hold up. That’s why you keep hearing them getting corrected over and over and over.

Meanwhile the proponents have the evidence behind them, and they have a real positive benefit to show voters. Namely, the chance that more townhouses, triplexes, and other units will be constructed around the County. 2, 4, or 6 units occupying the same footprint as one SFH are going to be less expensive than that SFH. Because math.

Vihstadt works in housing finance. He understands this. Rousselot’s been around the block and of course understands this as well. But there just aren’t enough Trumpy types in Arlington to carry the day on MMH.

Poor Peter. Poor John. Still wandering in the wilderness.

I know both Peter and John and they do not GAF. What I am waiting to see is the bloodbath when the Arlington Dems running for the board turn on each other. Roy (to be kind) is an idiot. Cunningham took over the scandal plagued AHC after the former CEO took a golden parachute away from the problems he caused. Cunningham made no progress in righting the wrongs of AHC. Maureen Coffey is a GenXer who works at a non-profit and wonders why she can't buy a house in Lyon Village. JD Spain is a former marine and moved to Arlington a few years ago. Through Missing Middle Housing he has expanded his reach beyond the 9% of Arlington's residents who are black. Jonathan Dromgole is the LGBTQ candidate, although one of the YIMBY leaders is a trans woman and may try to overtake him.

[Anonymous]

Well, not so fast…start your lawsuits.

https://www.arlnow.com/2023/04/21/developing-a-group-of-residents-are-suing-the-county-over-missing-middle/?fbclid=IwAR22XWn7xAoptalzRms3tuGeR1Nm9GBHeYe8l4-ljsPR1fvXSl_62uYnx58

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well, not so fast…start your lawsuits.

https://www.arlnow.com/2023/04/21/developing-a-group-of-residents-are-suing-the-county-over-missing-middle/?fbclid=IwAR22XWn7xAoptalzRms3tuGeR1Nm9GBHeYe8l4-ljsPR1fvXSl_62uYnx58

Of course they're suing, and of course they're suing about process. This is what people who are affluent NIMBYs but do not want to be called affluent NIMBYs do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, not so fast…start your lawsuits.

https://www.arlnow.com/2023/04/21/developing-a-group-of-residents-are-suing-the-county-over-missing-middle/?fbclid=IwAR22XWn7xAoptalzRms3tuGeR1Nm9GBHeYe8l4-ljsPR1fvXSl_62uYnx58

Of course they're suing, and of course they're suing about process. This is what people who are affluent NIMBYs but do not want to be called affluent NIMBYs do.

You seem to think that’s an insult. I’d rather that than just hand everything over to the YIMBYs, which seems to just be synonymous with low evidence feelings based policy. Hopefully this lawsuit can provide a blueprint for what’s coming in MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, not so fast…start your lawsuits.

https://www.arlnow.com/2023/04/21/developing-a-group-of-residents-are-suing-the-county-over-missing-middle/?fbclid=IwAR22XWn7xAoptalzRms3tuGeR1Nm9GBHeYe8l4-ljsPR1fvXSl_62uYnx58

Of course they're suing, and of course they're suing about process. This is what people who are affluent NIMBYs but do not want to be called affluent NIMBYs do.

Also, are you somehow insinuating that process isn’t important? So, if they were to strip away (without due process) part of the plan and limit all to two units/plot the YIMBYs wouldn’t cry i to their lattes about it and file a lawsuit?

That’s handy to know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, not so fast…start your lawsuits.

https://www.arlnow.com/2023/04/21/developing-a-group-of-residents-are-suing-the-county-over-missing-middle/?fbclid=IwAR22XWn7xAoptalzRms3tuGeR1Nm9GBHeYe8l4-ljsPR1fvXSl_62uYnx58

Of course they're suing, and of course they're suing about process. This is what people who are affluent NIMBYs but do not want to be called affluent NIMBYs do.

Also, are you somehow insinuating that process isn’t important? So, if they were to strip away (without due process) part of the plan and limit all to two units/plot the YIMBYs wouldn’t cry i to their lattes about it and file a lawsuit?

That’s handy to know.

When you don't like the outcome (and you can afford a lawyer), you sue about the process. And, generally, you lose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, not so fast…start your lawsuits.

https://www.arlnow.com/2023/04/21/developing-a-group-of-residents-are-suing-the-county-over-missing-middle/?fbclid=IwAR22XWn7xAoptalzRms3tuGeR1Nm9GBHeYe8l4-ljsPR1fvXSl_62uYnx58

Of course they're suing, and of course they're suing about process. This is what people who are affluent NIMBYs but do not want to be called affluent NIMBYs do.

You seem to think that’s an insult. I’d rather that than just hand everything over to the YIMBYs, which seems to just be synonymous with low evidence feelings based policy. Hopefully this lawsuit can provide a blueprint for what’s coming in MoCo.

"Affluent NIMBY" in this case is not an insult, it's just a statement of fact.

[Anonymous]

This is what happens when cowardly, guilt ridden whites allow low iq woke to govern. What started out ill conceived, short sighted attempt at “equity” got rolling bc fear of opposing for being branded a racist. But the time the folks found the courage and pointed out what was obvious to anyone with a 100+ IQ, ie, that this actually causes more gentrification, and does nothing for “equity”, the die had been cast. I’m DC LL with 90 tenants in NW DC. I’ve got two NA SF houses that I was holding onto praying that the rezoning would go through, primarily bc the people of N.A. fully deserve it to go through. If it didn’t go through, I would have sold bc rents don’t justify mortgage. There is be 4 townhomes on each now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is what happens when cowardly, guilt ridden whites allow low iq woke to govern. What started out ill conceived, short sighted attempt at “equity” got rolling bc fear of opposing for being branded a racist. But the time the folks found the courage and pointed out what was obvious to anyone with a 100+ IQ, ie, that this actually causes more gentrification, and does nothing for “equity”, the die had been cast. I’m DC LL with 90 tenants in NW DC. I’ve got two NA SF houses that I was holding onto praying that the rezoning would go through, primarily bc the people of N.A. fully deserve it to go through. If it didn’t go through, I would have sold bc rents don’t justify mortgage. There is be 4 townhomes on each now.

Can you explain how replacing older houses with $700k condos instead of a multi-million dollar McMansion “actually causes more gentrification”? Keep in mind that I’m “low iq woke,” so please explain it like I’m a child, or a smart golden retriever.

[Anonymous]

DP. I'd also like to know what "gentrification" in North Arlington would look like.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what happens when cowardly, guilt ridden whites allow low iq woke to govern. What started out ill conceived, short sighted attempt at “equity” got rolling bc fear of opposing for being branded a racist. But the time the folks found the courage and pointed out what was obvious to anyone with a 100+ IQ, ie, that this actually causes more gentrification, and does nothing for “equity”, the die had been cast. I’m DC LL with 90 tenants in NW DC. I’ve got two NA SF houses that I was holding onto praying that the rezoning would go through, primarily bc the people of N.A. fully deserve it to go through. If it didn’t go through, I would have sold bc rents don’t justify mortgage. There is be 4 townhomes on each now.

Can you explain how replacing older houses with $700k condos instead of a multi-million dollar McMansion “actually causes more gentrification”? Keep in mind that I’m “low iq woke,” so please explain it like I’m a child, or a smart golden retriever.

It means people more of the races of people who can afford 700k condo. Unless the “equity” fairy steps in to make developers give these condos to the blacks, then it’s not helping them at all. Taxes will rise at a greater rate and those that can’t afford to live there will be forced to leave.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what happens when cowardly, guilt ridden whites allow low iq woke to govern. What started out ill conceived, short sighted attempt at “equity” got rolling bc fear of opposing for being branded a racist. But the time the folks found the courage and pointed out what was obvious to anyone with a 100+ IQ, ie, that this actually causes more gentrification, and does nothing for “equity”, the die had been cast. I’m DC LL with 90 tenants in NW DC. I’ve got two NA SF houses that I was holding onto praying that the rezoning would go through, primarily bc the people of N.A. fully deserve it to go through. If it didn’t go through, I would have sold bc rents don’t justify mortgage. There is be 4 townhomes on each now.

Can you explain how replacing older houses with $700k condos instead of a multi-million dollar McMansion “actually causes more gentrification”? Keep in mind that I’m “low iq woke,” so please explain it like I’m a child, or a smart golden retriever.

It means people more of the races of people who can afford 700k condo. Unless the “equity” fairy steps in to make developers give these condos to the blacks, then it’s not helping them at all. Taxes will rise at a greater rate and those that can’t afford to live there will be forced to leave.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what happens when cowardly, guilt ridden whites allow low iq woke to govern. What started out ill conceived, short sighted attempt at “equity” got rolling bc fear of opposing for being branded a racist. But the time the folks found the courage and pointed out what was obvious to anyone with a 100+ IQ, ie, that this actually causes more gentrification, and does nothing for “equity”, the die had been cast. I’m DC LL with 90 tenants in NW DC. I’ve got two NA SF houses that I was holding onto praying that the rezoning would go through, primarily bc the people of N.A. fully deserve it to go through. If it didn’t go through, I would have sold bc rents don’t justify mortgage. There is be 4 townhomes on each now.

Can you explain how replacing older houses with $700k condos instead of a multi-million dollar McMansion “actually causes more gentrification”? Keep in mind that I’m “low iq woke,” so please explain it like I’m a child, or a smart golden retriever.

It means people more of the races of people who can afford 700k condo. Unless the “equity” fairy steps in to make developers give these condos to the blacks, then it’s not helping them at all. Taxes will rise at a greater rate and those that can’t afford to live there will be forced to leave.

“To the blacks”

Go back to your ignorant, racist hole.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what happens when cowardly, guilt ridden whites allow low iq woke to govern. What started out ill conceived, short sighted attempt at “equity” got rolling bc fear of opposing for being branded a racist. But the time the folks found the courage and pointed out what was obvious to anyone with a 100+ IQ, ie, that this actually causes more gentrification, and does nothing for “equity”, the die had been cast. I’m DC LL with 90 tenants in NW DC. I’ve got two NA SF houses that I was holding onto praying that the rezoning would go through, primarily bc the people of N.A. fully deserve it to go through. If it didn’t go through, I would have sold bc rents don’t justify mortgage. There is be 4 townhomes on each now.

Can you explain how replacing older houses with $700k condos instead of a multi-million dollar McMansion “actually causes more gentrification”? Keep in mind that I’m “low iq woke,” so please explain it like I’m a child, or a smart golden retriever.

It means people more of the races of people who can afford 700k condo. Unless the “equity” fairy steps in to make developers give these condos to the blacks, then it’s not helping them at all. Taxes will rise at a greater rate and those that can’t afford to live there will be forced to leave.

“To the blacks”

Go back to your ignorant, racist hole.

Sorry, to people of color

[Anonymous]

Why do people care so much about this anyway? New townhomes in North Arlington will be at least $800k, and much more in places like Lyon Village. Some of your new neighbors will be GS14s instead of biglaw partners—oh the horror!

Actual progressive reform would rezone desirable areas for apartments/condos and mandate that a portion of them be subsidized/affordable. Missing Middle is nothing compared to what other jurisdictions are doing.