Will Larry Hogan win Re-Election?
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Anonymous
| I'm a Dem, but I think Hogan will take it easily. I doubt it will even be close. |
Anonymous
Another Dem here. Definitely voting for Hogan. I think it will be close. |
Anonymous
| I’m a republican and can’t see a Republican doing a second term as Dems run things into the ground then an R gets one term to fix it |
Anonymous
Jealous will win and it won’t be close. |
Anonymous
From the Jealous campaign? You sound like a busy eyed 18 year old kid. "Won't be close?" Nothing in current polling supports that and just because all your friends in your self-selected pool of friends say they're voting for Jealous doesn't mean it's any more indicative of the final outcome than a circle of Republican friends in Frederick County all voting for Hogan and thinking it won't be close. There are three factors at play for the Democrats: 1. AA voters, who will vote in lockstep and support Jealous. 2. Hardcore Democrats who will never vote for anyone but Democrats. Together, those two constitute a pretty substantial portion of the electorate for Democrats and in Maryland in general. Not an actual majority, but I'd hazard around 40% altogether. Then there's the third group, moderate Democrats who can vote Republican. It's hard to estimate what % of the electorate they make up but I'll throw in 20%. This third group split in the past, twice, and voted for Ehrlich, and then voted for Hogan. All evidence points to them voting for Hogan again. Hogan may be aligned with the Republicans but he has not behaved differently from many moderate Democrats. Does it mean Hogan is guaranteed a victory again? Not necessarily. The unknown factor will be young voters who may have voted for Hogan in the past or who sat out the 2014 election. I use the term unknown as young voters are showing greater attraction to more socialist, more left wing campaigns and politicians. After all, they have nothing to lose and don't have the pragmatic moderate democrat views of the people in their 30s-50s who see no reason not to rock the boat. I can see how someone like Jealous could be quite popular to this segment, especially over someone like Baker would have been. It is for this reason I think the election will be closer than many think, but it will not be a blowout either way. It may come down to turnout. If the young don't turn out (and they may not, after all, it's not a presidential year) Hogan will likely win with a comfortable margin (53-47?). If they turn out, we will see and there may be a surprise on election night. |
Anonymous
| Baker would've been tarred with Prince George's and not brought out the excitement on the left. This along with GA-Gov is a test of whether running to the left can bring out voters who didn't vote before. |