The problem is confirmation bias. All of these people ride the CCT to work, which does get crowded, so they just assume that there are “tens of thousands” of people just like them. But it’s just not true. |
Standing on a street corner is not how you would study this. The number is from the American Community Survey from the Census bureau. |
In 2017 there were about 13,000 bike commuters in DC. DC regularly ranks quite high in bike commuting %ages for largish cities. https://wtop.com/local/2017/05/many-people-really-bike-work-around-dc-surprising-stats/ |
If you looked at street corners on streets with protected bike lanes, you might, since the bikes on 15th Street can move faster than the cars can during rush hour. |
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So far, 3 Ward 3 ANCs have voted for bike lanes on Connecticut Avenue.
Across the three, the aggregate vote is 19 for, 1 opposed and 1 abstained. The Councilmember in whose ward this resides, is also chair of the Transportation committee. Given the Biden Administration is allocating infrastructure money for just this very purpose, I am hopeful we will see a re-imagined corridor in short order. |
The American Community Survey is just that -- a survey, and people say all kinds of things in surveys. There is no way on Earth that five percent are on bikes. Believe your eyes. Go on any street you want, at any time of day -- your pick. Count up the people you see and how they are moving. The number of people on bikes is probably more like 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent. |
You mean go on a street and run a survey? I see. You are very smart. |
The American Community Survey is based on interviews. I know you're not going to believe this, but sometimes people say one thing and do another. If five percent of all commuters are actually on bikes that should be apparent when you go outside and look at people on the streets. |
Yes if you saw how everyone commuted you would know how everyone commuted. Or you could take an appropriate sample and.... But do you really think 5% bike commuters means wherever you go 1 out 20 people will be on a bike? |
Obviously, we're talking about averages so things will vary. But I don't think there's any street anywhere in DC, at any time of day, that you would observe five bicyclists out of every 100 people. I think it would be more like one bicyclist out of every two or three thousand people. Which of course means that if the five percent statistic isn't BS, you would have to see much more than five percent on bikes elsewhere in the city to make the math work out. |
Things will vary even if there are random samples, which you aren't doing. Number one, you're going on a street. That already is taking out transit commuters. Many walkers too. The bolded part I agree with. You probably have no idea why. As your next sentence shows. |
Except I'm letting you pick the location -- any single spot in DC, at any time of the day. You will pick the one most likely to have bicyclists there, and I'm saying even there, in your best case scenario, you will not be able to produce five percent on bikes. Which means your five percent average for the rest of the city is impossible. |
I agreed with your bolded part. There is not going to be a street location that does that. |
It seems pretty apparent to me and my anecdotal eyes. |
DP. You really have no idea what you're talking about, dude. I guess if you commute to L'Enfant Plaza via 395 you might be surprised that lots of people bike to work, but go hang out at 15th and L during rush hour after people have returned to in-person work. There's far more than one cyclist for every 20 cars, and it's not even close. |