Official Brett Kavanaugh Thread, Part 5

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this vote is more bad news than good for Republicans and BK supporters

Agree. Murkowski gave a clear signal.

Collins will announce her vote this afternoon and that will likely be it.

Need the Flake too.

True. Even if Collins/Murkowski are both no, Flake/Manchin could still put Kavanaugh over.

If Collins and Murkowski are nos, it is likely Manchin will be a no as well. He won't want to be the one to put Kavanaugh through.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is there any point in calling Collins if I am not her constituent?

Yes there is a point! This is a national issue. You can easily contact her office by phone or email and state your opinion. It matters. Staffers collect this data and report.

https://www.collins.senate.gov/contact

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ugh

Manchin said his vote for cloture would be the same as his final vote. So with Murkowski a no and Manchin a yes, Collins could still vote no and then Pence would break a 50-50 tie and Kavanaugh slips through.

No, Manchin is still being coy. He says "you'll have to see". I still think he wants to know how others are voting before he votes. Being the deciding vote for cloture isn't the same as being the deciding vote for confirmation.

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/1048220335865311233

I am a Democrat and think Manchin should be voted out. An open wolf is better to predict than an wolf in sheep skin. I am going to contribute to defeat Manchin.

I thought this too but another poster pointed out to me there is NO WAY we'd get another Dem in his seat. So we are still better off with him voting with us *sometimes* than the Trumper GOP senator that would likely take his spot.

May be - but if he votes with Republicans all the time what good it is to have him? Except may be if his seat marked Democrats and Democrats become majority in the senate then the Senate leader would be a Democrat and can deny bringing any bill to floor for voting. So, I guess you are right. I hope Democrats will build a better grass root base to vote in a real Democrats though. This is so frustrating that he voted with the cheating/scheming GOP for one of the most momentous vote of our life time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this vote is more bad news than good for Republicans and BK supporters

Agree. Murkowski gave a clear signal.

Collins will announce her vote this afternoon and that will likely be it.

Need the Flake too.

True. Even if Collins/Murkowski are both no, Flake/Manchin could still put Kavanaugh over.

Do you really think this is the legacy Flake wants for himself? To be one of the villains when the history books are written about the delegitimization of the supreme court and the movement to confront society's problems with rape and sexual assault?

We can only hope that he sees it the same way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s right out of the play book. Make false and and outrageous accusations then stand back when the person defends themselves and say : I’m calm you’re not.

Actually I was married to a gaslighter, and Kavanaugh's testimony was like a bad trip back to my marriage. The minimizing (it was JUST beer, JUST the weekends), the bald faced lies (Renate was a good friend) the turning it around on the questioner (How dare YOU insinuate that I had sex with Renate!) the defiant anger in response to being asked questions that were directly related to the accusations, turning it around on Kolbuchar (do YOU? do YOU have a drinking problem?) It was classic. It was how lying liars lie 101.

Acting like it's inappropriate to inquire into his drinking and sexual proclivities when he has been accused of sexual assault while under the influence, classic, classic gaslighting. "I'm not going to let this be about what *I* did, I am going to turn it around on you, YOU are the problem here, YOU are the crazy and inappropriate one, you, You, YOU.

Problem is he isn't actually very good at it. My ex had more finesse that this guy.

Wow, such technique and such certainty. Do behavioral scientists know about this course about lying 101? Gosh we need to get this to the FBI stat! For certain this is much more reliable than a polygraph.

DP. And I think this forum owes BK an apology. We have been opening under the assumption he didin’t take one.

LOL! Oh, okay. Let’s hear your heartfelt I sowwys to Ford, Ramirez, etc.

I’m the PP. Your sarcasm o’meter is broken.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this vote is more bad news than good for Republicans and BK supporters

Agree. Murkowski gave a clear signal.

Collins will announce her vote this afternoon and that will likely be it.

Need the Flake too.

True. Even if Collins/Murkowski are both no, Flake/Manchin could still put Kavanaugh over.

If Collins and Murkowski are nos, it is likely Manchin will be a no as well. He won't want to be the one to put Kavanaugh through.

He would be a hero in WV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:. This is so frustrating that he voted with the cheating/scheming GOP for one of the most momentous vote of our life time.

But he didn't. That was only cloture. My money is on him voting No in the final vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:. This is so frustrating that he voted with the cheating/scheming GOP for one of the most momentous vote of our life time.

But he didn't. That was only cloture. My money is on him voting No in the final vote.

We will see. I am praying that all the four swing vote senators vote NO and brett goes in flame. But I am not holding my breath.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If it is true that McConnell doesn't have the votes, then the honorable thing to do would be to pull the nomination. Instead, again if true, the GOP will use Kavanaugh (and his family) as a political pawn to try to rile GOP voters for the midterms.

But Doing so doesn’t help. Trump is the one who would have to pull the nomination. And Trump does not back down.

[Anonymous]

What is the Dems most likely "best case" scenario?

Flake - Y
Collins/Murkowski/Manchin - N

Is this more likely than all 4 as a no?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this vote is more bad news than good for Republicans and BK supporters

Agree. Murkowski gave a clear signal.

Collins will announce her vote this afternoon and that will likely be it.

Need the Flake too.

True. Even if Collins/Murkowski are both no, Flake/Manchin could still put Kavanaugh over.

If Collins and Murkowski are nos, it is likely Manchin will be a no as well. He won't want to be the one to put Kavanaugh through.

He would be a hero in WV.

Really? I thought that was Trump country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:. This is so frustrating that he voted with the cheating/scheming GOP for one of the most momentous vote of our life time.

But he didn't. That was only cloture. My money is on him voting No in the final vote.

We will see. I am praying that all the four swing vote senators vote NO and brett goes in flame. But I am not holding my breath.

The only vote that would shock me is Manchin voting no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this vote is more bad news than good for Republicans and BK supporters

Agree. Murkowski gave a clear signal.

Collins will announce her vote this afternoon and that will likely be it.

Need the Flake too.

True. Even if Collins/Murkowski are both no, Flake/Manchin could still put Kavanaugh over.

If Collins and Murkowski are nos, it is likely Manchin will be a no as well. He won't want to be the one to put Kavanaugh through.

He would be a hero in WV.

Really? I thought that was Trump country.

Should have been clearer- he would be a hero if he went against party to vote yes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this vote is more bad news than good for Republicans and BK supporters

Agree. Murkowski gave a clear signal.

Collins will announce her vote this afternoon and that will likely be it.

During the cloture vote Collins and Murkowski were sitting together and chatting.

I'm trying to suss out the psychology going on here. They both no how they will vote tomorrow. They plus Manchin and Flake seemed earlier this week like they might be voting as a block. How does it help Collins to have voted yes on Cloture if she's planning to vote no tomorrow? I assume Murkowski won't change her "no" to yes... help me think it through.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What is the Dems most likely "best case" scenario?

Flake - Y
Collins/Murkowski/Manchin - N

Is this more likely than all 4 as a no?

Do you think Flake is a more likely yes than Manchin?