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Anonymous
In this case, it wasn't BLS's estimate. The estimate from the beginning of the week was from ADP. ADP has about 25K employers that use ADP for timekeeping and payroll services. At the end of each month, they put out numbers based on their companies which is a small sampling of actual employers nationwide (there are over 450K employers in the US). So, ADP is a sampling and they use that as one early predictor of numbers. Since ADP is less than 5% of the actual employers in the US, they get their numbers out within a day or two of the end of the month. The national numbers from BLS are based on a much larger sampling and takes 4-5 days to get out so they come out later, but they are more accurate. So, in this case, the employers that use ADP did not hire many people in January. However, nationally, employers hired a lot more than that. One more caveat. While ADP has a lot of employers on their books, they tend to specialist in small and medium employers. There are some larger companies that use ADP, but in general, most larger employers use other software and companies (many have internal only payrolls), so that is why ADP is not necessarily a good predictor other than of general trends. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
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The December to January change finds that while the seasonally adjusted number rose by an impressive 467K, the unadjusted number collapsed, tumbling from 150.349 million to 147.525 million, a 2.8 million drop (as it tends to do every time the year shifts from December to January) meaning that the entire delta in the January number - somewhere in the 3+ million range - is due to arbitrary adjustments overlaid on top of the data.
They're baking the numbers. |
Anonymous
| One thing that analysts apparently forgot when they were submitting their forecasts for January's payrolls is that this is the month when the BLS adjusts data for the past 10 years as part of its population estimates revisions, which impact both the Household and more important, Establishment, surveys. The unadjusted numbers show a drop of 2.8 million jobs |
Anonymous
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Looks like the economy is ROARING with Biden in charge.
I love it! |
Anonymous
| I take it that you didn’t read the two prior posts? |
jsteele
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Are you referring to the two posts that have no links to support what the poster is saying and, as such, we are free to assume it was all pulled from his butt? |
Anonymous
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That 467k January number was great. But what was most impressive were the revisions December from 199k to 510k and November from 249k to 647k.
Another big story that’s missed is how we thought we were getting void job booms and busts last year but after revisions the numbers were consistently in the 400-700k range with only April being a outlier at 263k. The summer boom was reduced and the winter lulls were increased, the media story is all wrong this was super consistent job growth all year! |
Anonymous
You are so full of ****. The same (seasonal) adjustment is done every year, to strip the trends of seasonal effect. If they were to NOT do this adjustment, it would actually invite (legitimate) criticism of "cooking the data". |
Anonymous
+1 Things are doing so much better. |
Anonymous
Great jobs growth, great wage growth, workers have more power than ever before! Thank you Biden. |
Anonymous
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Interesting and funny vid, but I’m surprised that ADP was so out of sync with government statistics. ADP is doing actual payroll processing in real time, so one would think they have good handle on what’s going on. Very strange. |