Technically Key and Mann here, but same difference: https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/2927-44th-St-NW-20016/home/113744981 https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/5070-Millwood-Ln-NW-20016/home/9943109 https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4869-Glenbrook-Rd-NW-20016/home/9946672 https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4433-Cathedral-Ave-NW-20016/home/9956065 |
How is this relevant? People living in such expensive places do not use DCPS. |
+1 I work for a large law firm in DC. The partners making the kind of money that would enable them to buy one of these house universally send their kids to private school OR live in a select few suburban districts, not DCPS. The only lawyers that send kids to DCPS at my firm are associates, but they don't make enough to afford houses like that. They might one day, and if they do, they will move their kids to private. The Venn diagram is two separate circles. DCPS and public charters are for poor to upper middle class people, and everyone in between. But not wealthy folks. |
It’s actually more accurate than that if you assume all white are not at risk (and don’t make assumptions about other race). If you assume 50 white not at risk, you’re probably wrong twice (4% B|A). Same number of black at risk, you’re wrong 17.5 times (35% B|A). That’s basically 80% accuracy. |
Counterpoint: half of lit consulting is at YY |
What is "lit consulting"? |
Curious about this Venn diagram where "not wealthy folks" live in the same school zone as folks in $7 million homes. |
Because not every home in that school zone is a 6 bedroom, 6 bathroom SFH with a pool. There are not really poor people living IB for Mann or Key, but there are UMC people whose homes didn't cost anywhere near that much. And the people whose homes do cost that much don't send their kids to Mann or Key. |
Accuracy is dependent on the size of each group in the overall population you're looking at. The only reasonable rule of thumb you can make is white = not at risk. With any other racial group, there's a decent chance you will be wrong. Why be wrong 12-35% of the time when you could just stop assuming class based on race altogether? |
Hard to buy a home for Key or Mann for less than $2.5 million. UMC people cannot afford the mortgage on a $2 million home (it's about $13,000 per month assuming you put down 20 percent). |
If the EV of getting it wrong is unacceptably high, statistical discrimination is rational- it’s not even risk aversion. And both sides of that explain why lower middle class people get the hell out of DCPS. |
Yes but many people bought their homes more than 5 years ago, when rates and homes were lower. But you're right there must be some kids of genuinely wealthy people attending these schools. I say this as someone who thinks my kid is getting a good education in DCPS: it is WILD to me that someone could afford to own a house that pricy and put your kids in public schools. I know private school is expensive, but if I had that kind of money, I would not be putting up with some of the stuff you have to put up with in DCPS. I'd happy live in a smaller home, in a less ritzy neighborhood, and buy my kids the best childhood and education I could find. |
I think the way OSSE calculates the school accountability score for its annual report card is kind of telling. Each metric score is calculated by student group. Each student group's score accounts for the following percentages of the overall score: All Students 30% Economically Disadvantaged 40% Race/Ethnicity 15% Students with Disabilities 10% English Learners 5% The Race/Ethnicity score adds the score for every race/ethnicity group with 10 or more students and divides by the number of race/ethnicity groups. https://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/page_content/attachments/2025%20Report%20Card%20Technical%20Guide%20%28September%2022%202025%20Update%29.pdf |
| Plessy |
There are definitely homes for well less than $2.5 million! You won't see them sitting on Zillow, because the $1.0 million to $1.6 million get scooped up fast. Meanwhile, all those $7 million houses are sitting on Zillow for a reason. |