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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]OSSE used to do more cross-tabulation of student metrics. Using the metric that includes the most students (90% attendance) in the most recent year I could find (2018) and using metric percentages and totals to back out total population numbers, breakdown of at-risk among racial groups was follows:

White 4% at-risk
Asian 12%
Two or more races 23%
Hispanic/Latino 34%
Black/African-American 65%[/quote]

This is unsurprising but doesn't really tell us about middle class people in DC public schools. At risk students are usually, by definition, not middle class.[/quote]

I think it might be surprising for the innumerate people a few pages back who seem to think black = at risk.[/quote]

I’d be careful who I’m calling innumerate, if I were you. A model that’s right 70% of the time is a pretty good model.[/quote]

Yeah, that's not how conditional probabilities work.[/quote]

It’s actually more accurate than that if you assume all white are not at risk (and don’t make assumptions about other race). If you assume 50 white not at risk, you’re probably wrong twice (4% B|A). Same number of black at risk, you’re wrong 17.5 times (35% B|A). That’s basically 80% accuracy. [/quote]

Accuracy is dependent on the size of each group in the overall population you're looking at.

The only reasonable rule of thumb you can make is white = not at risk. With any other racial group, there's a decent chance you will be wrong.

Why be wrong 12-35% of the time when you could just stop assuming class based on race altogether?[/quote]
If the EV of getting it wrong is unacceptably high, statistical discrimination is rational- it’s not even risk aversion.

And both sides of that explain why lower middle class people get the hell out of DCPS.[/quote]

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