Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status.

What's ironic is that if Russia had simply left Ukraine alone in 2014, Ukraine today would likely be a pliant pro-Russia state as it was throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Sure it was a corrupt state - like Russia itself - but it was firmly in the Russian orbit. By seizing Donbass and Crimea and its largely ethnic Russian population, what remained of Ukraine became a unified, ethnically homogenous nationalist state. Zelenesky did not arise in a vacuum. And now, after a year of brutal war in which more than a 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died and numerous cities and towns like Mariupol and Marinka have been utterly destroyed, a negotiated land for peace deal has become politically impossible. Ukraine, unlike Russia, is a democracy. There is no politician in Ukraine who can deliver a deal in which Russia gets thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian land and in return Ukraine gets... nothing. Not even a security guarantee. It's not happening in a democracy.

So to blithely say "Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status" is completely unrealistic. It's like asking Americans to give up New England and Texas and quietly accept it. There is no realistic peace deal on the horizon between Russia and Ukraine. After all the devastation Russia has caused, Ukrainians are completely united. They will fight to the end. As the Spring offensive begins, hundreds of thousands of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers are going to die. This war ends when they finally turn on their officers and walk away from the killing fields - as they did in 1915 - and put a bullet in Putin's head. This is going to be a long, brutal summer and it will be a prelude to the unrest that will soon sweep through Russia as thousands of war-hardened, disillusioned, and often criminal war veterans return to their towns and villages. The chaos is only beginning.

Marinka?

Marinka:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status.

What's ironic is that if Russia had simply left Ukraine alone in 2014, Ukraine today would likely be a pliant pro-Russia state as it was throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Sure it was a corrupt state - like Russia itself - but it was firmly in the Russian orbit. By seizing Donbass and Crimea and its largely ethnic Russian population, what remained of Ukraine became a unified, ethnically homogenous nationalist state. Zelenesky did not arise in a vacuum. And now, after a year of brutal war in which more than a 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died and numerous cities and towns like Mariupol and Marinka have been utterly destroyed, a negotiated land for peace deal has become politically impossible. Ukraine, unlike Russia, is a democracy. There is no politician in Ukraine who can deliver a deal in which Russia gets thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian land and in return Ukraine gets... nothing. Not even a security guarantee. It's not happening in a democracy.

So to blithely say "Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status" is completely unrealistic. It's like asking Americans to give up New England and Texas and quietly accept it. There is no realistic peace deal on the horizon between Russia and Ukraine. After all the devastation Russia has caused, Ukrainians are completely united. They will fight to the end. As the Spring offensive begins, hundreds of thousands of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers are going to die. This war ends when they finally turn on their officers and walk away from the killing fields - as they did in 1915 - and put a bullet in Putin's head. This is going to be a long, brutal summer and it will be a prelude to the unrest that will soon sweep through Russia as thousands of war-hardened, disillusioned, and often criminal war veterans return to their towns and villages. The chaos is only beginning.

Wagner Private Military Corporation (PMC) recruited tens of thousands of hardened Russian criminals from Russian prisons, with the promise of commuting their lengthy sentences in exchange for fighting against Ukraine.

Approximately 50% of the convict / soldiers were killed on the battle.

But the other 50% survived, and their 6-month contracts are now ending.

Surprisingly, Wagner and the Kremlin are actually honoring the contracts, and releasing them from service with a clean record.

Tens of thousands of combat-scared, convicted criminals who’d otherwise still be in jail, will soon be roaming free all over Russia, many with untreated PTSD.

How do you think that’s going to go?

In terms of population studies, extrapolated to total population of Russia, that's not very much at all.

Hmm. That analysis is skewed. There are two factors involved.

Overall, Russia has as high an incarceration rate as the US, but the inmate population is radically different.

It is true that the most recent prisoners are mostly anti-Putin or anti-war protesters. In the US they would be normally law abiding citizens. However, given that they protested against Putin and/or the war, they could be pardoned out the kazoo, but that will never erase their FSB files. Since they're labeled for Life, sooner or later this will become a discontented, disgruntled segment of the population.

The other type of criminal are the SUPERMAX, hardcore types. Many things that are illegal here in the US are perfectly fine in Russia. For example, domestic violence, rape, death by FSB, most state corruption, etc. are rarely if ever prosecuted. The crime would need to be against someone important and higher up in the food chain. These criminals are dangerous to anyone in Russia, and given how they were treated in the Ukraine; I doubt things will go well.

There is also a misperception that Russia is so huge that release of inmates won't have an effect. Russia is about twice as large as the US with half the population. That means there are more places to hide with fewer cops / FSB per square kilometer than you would find in the US.

Either way you look at the convict release numbers, they would be significant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status.

What's ironic is that if Russia had simply left Ukraine alone in 2014, Ukraine today would likely be a pliant pro-Russia state as it was throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Sure it was a corrupt state - like Russia itself - but it was firmly in the Russian orbit.

That was before the US instigated a coup to remove the pro-Russian leader. Putin wanted to keep the base in Crimea whose lease was expiring.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just to comment on the idea of "Ukrainian victory" - if you include propaganda victory - they've already won.

Russia, once regarded as a premier superpower, has been humiliated with *literally* their top diplomat laughed at while on public stage and leader branded a criminal. China is even carving up the Far East while Russia is bogged down in an un-winnable war.

Even if tomorrow, Ukraine magically flips sides and swears allegiance to Russia, the chance of Russia invading another Former Soviet Union country is low. It's to the point that Poland, once regarded as not militarily adept, could stage a sizable force that could even threaten Moscow itself.

The only question now is, how much more will Russia lose?

So even if Ukraine loses, Ukraine wins?

[Anonymous]

The dictator of Russia now will be arrested in 40 countries and counting.

Russia is a nothing burger who can only threaten suicidal shooting spree. They cannot really even threaten serious nuclear global impact.

They have nukes, but nothing that actually can destroy America or Europe.

Just another irrelevant North Korea.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status.

What's ironic is that if Russia had simply left Ukraine alone in 2014, Ukraine today would likely be a pliant pro-Russia state as it was throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Sure it was a corrupt state - like Russia itself - but it was firmly in the Russian orbit.

That was before the US instigated a coup to remove the pro-Russian leader. Putin wanted to keep the base in Crimea whose lease was expiring.

The Revolution of Dignity / Ukrainian Maidan was 100% organic to Ukraine.

It is laughable for you to suggest the US had any part in it.

As in: everyone is laughing at you for such a stupid suggestion. I feel sorry for how badly you are embarrassing yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The dictator of Russia now will be arrested in 40 countries and counting.

Russia is a nothing burger who can only threaten suicidal shooting spree. They cannot really even threaten serious nuclear global impact.

They have nukes, but nothing that actually can destroy America or Europe.

Just another irrelevant North Korea.

Russia will certainly lose its war with Ukraine. The question is how much are they willing to lose. In Bakhmut alone, a strategically insignificant town, the Russians have already lost 30,000 soldiers. It's mind-boggling. No western country would tolerate those kind of losses. And everyday, throughout a very long front, Russia loses roughly another 1000 soldiers. Every single day. And the Ukrainian counter offensive hasn't even begun yet. I'm no military strategist, but I think the southern front is the weaker point. And that means Crimea. Russians will certainly defend that hard. And I think people are overestimating how weakened Russia has become. They still have essentially an unlimited amount of artillery. And besides some HIMARS, Ukraine lacks the long distance weaponry that makes a difference. It will be total war. Trench to trench. In the end, a generation of Russian men will be lost. And I don't think after its humiliation in Ukraine Russia will quietly retreat and became a pleasant agrarian nation that celebrates Pushkin and hand-carved nesting dolls. The dissolution of a country with 6000 nuclear warheads becomes a very real possibility. Interesting times.

[Anonymous]

PP, stop drinking cool aid and eating mushrooms. What a bunch of incoherent garbage your sick imagination has vomited on the pages of DCUM.

[Anonymous]

At best russia has 400 nukes that actually work. Definitely a deterrent, but more of an annoyance at this point. We take their best shot, and exterminate their race.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The dictator of Russia now will be arrested in 40 countries and counting.

Russia is a nothing burger who can only threaten suicidal shooting spree. They cannot really even threaten serious nuclear global impact.

They have nukes, but nothing that actually can destroy America or Europe.

Just another irrelevant North Korea.

Russia will certainly lose its war with Ukraine. The question is how much are they willing to lose. In Bakhmut alone, a strategically insignificant town, the Russians have already lost 30,000 soldiers. It's mind-boggling. No western country would tolerate those kind of losses. And everyday, throughout a very long front, Russia loses roughly another 1000 soldiers. Every single day. And the Ukrainian counter offensive hasn't even begun yet. I'm no military strategist, but I think the southern front is the weaker point. And that means Crimea. Russians will certainly defend that hard. And I think people are overestimating how weakened Russia has become. They still have essentially an unlimited amount of artillery. And besides some HIMARS, Ukraine lacks the long distance weaponry that makes a difference. It will be total war. Trench to trench. In the end, a generation of Russian men will be lost. And I don't think after its humiliation in Ukraine Russia will quietly retreat and became a pleasant agrarian nation that celebrates Pushkin and hand-carved nesting dolls. The dissolution of a country with 6000 nuclear warheads becomes a very real possibility. Interesting times.

It will be interesting when Putin dies or is overthrown. It'll be a throwback to the fall of Mobutu. I can't wait to laugh at all the tacky crap Putin spent his money on. But it's long past time for one of the last colonial empires to break up. Hope the Caucuses don't turn into another Yugoslavia though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PP, stop drinking cool aid and eating mushrooms. What a bunch of incoherent garbage your sick imagination has vomited on the pages of DCUM.

I recommend easing up on the after-dinner vodka. It's affecting your commentary.

China already is carving up the 'stans' (Kazakstan already giving Russia the finger) and ensuring they understand Xi's concerns about staying with Putin.

If you were in their shoes, would you really stick with Russia? I think Russia can very well disintegrate and lose all of the Far East region at this rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:At best russia has 400 nukes that actually work. Definitely a deterrent, but more of an annoyance at this point. We take their best shot, and exterminate their race.

That's what one of Iran's leaders said about Israel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP, stop drinking cool aid and eating mushrooms. What a bunch of incoherent garbage your sick imagination has vomited on the pages of DCUM.

I recommend easing up on the after-dinner vodka. It's affecting your commentary.

China already is carving up the 'stans' (Kazakstan already giving Russia the finger) and ensuring they understand Xi's concerns about staying with Putin.

If you were in their shoes, would you really stick with Russia? I think Russia can very well disintegrate and lose all of the Far East region at this rate.

There are only two plausible outcomes for Russia:

- dissolution or isolation as another pariah nation, sc., North Korea.

There will be no return to the status quo ante; on that fact we may all agree.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Not arguing. The American military is exceptionally efficient at eliminating their targets - in this case, the Iraqi military. Please keep this in mind when picking fights.

You weren't arguing the killing experience. You were arguing righteousness, and you failed. Thanks, though, for the acknowledgement that "might means right" is really your motto.

Anonymous wrote:
I wouldn't say "without provocation", but I won't object if you want to blame the Far Right and Cheney..

That's bullshit and you know it. Support for the illegal invasion of Iraq in the US was universal across the aisle. That includes all mainstream liberal media, not one of which has issued a mea culpa, by the way. No surprise. America loves itself a good war.

Anonymous wrote:Huh? lol. Who's rule is that to continue fighting? Please. You're embarrassing yourself. The people in Bosnia *chose* to maintain the peace. The people of Iraq *chose* not to.

Wait, you're arguing that America has a right to invade anywhere anytime, and if people choose to resist the invader, it's on them? You're the best example of arrogant, ignorant American thuggery.

On Bosnia. This is a memorial to Milica Rakic. She was a three-year old girl blown to bits by a NATO rocket as she was sitting on her training potty. One of 89 children (official count) killed by the NATO campaign. Her death is not listed among the victims the US acknowledges. It wasn't covered in any Western media. Her parents never received compensation from NATO.



This is an unrestored building in Serbia, from 2019. When asked why don't you fix it, the people say: "So that our children and their children know who to hate."



This gels with what our relatives in Iraq say. Saddam was not loved. But for America, people have nothing but pure, unadulterated hatred. Hatred that the Arabs describe as "I'll pay someone to shit on your mother's grave every day of their life."

I await, though, your dismissals of this as "stuck in the past"-ness. Anything to avoid responsibility for the misery America rains on people.

Anonymous wrote:носит однобокий и пред- взятый характер, милая моя параша

I'm a proud Arab so I have no idea what you're saying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:носит однобокий и пред- взятый характер, милая моя параша

I'm a proud Arab so I have no idea what you're saying.

I think he meant to type: יש לה אופי חד צדדי ומוטה, פרשה יקרה שלי