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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status.[/quote]

What's ironic is that if Russia had simply left Ukraine alone in 2014, Ukraine today would likely be a pliant pro-Russia state as it was throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Sure it was a corrupt state - like Russia itself - but it was firmly in the Russian orbit. By seizing Donbass and Crimea and its largely ethnic Russian population, what remained of Ukraine became a unified, ethnically homogenous nationalist state. Zelenesky did not arise in a vacuum. And now, after a year of brutal war in which more than a 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died and numerous cities and towns like Mariupol and Marinka have been utterly destroyed, a negotiated land for peace deal has become politically impossible. Ukraine, unlike Russia, is a democracy. There is no politician in Ukraine who can deliver a deal in which Russia gets thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian land and in return Ukraine gets... nothing. Not even a security guarantee. It's not happening in a democracy.

So to blithely say "Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status" is completely unrealistic. It's like asking Americans to give up New England and Texas and quietly accept it. There is no realistic peace deal on the horizon between Russia and Ukraine. After all the devastation Russia has caused, Ukrainians are completely united. They will fight to the end. As the Spring offensive begins, hundreds of thousands of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers are going to die. [b]This war ends when they finally turn on their officers and walk away from the killing fields - as they did in 1915 - and put a bullet in Putin's head.[/b] This is going to be a long, brutal summer and it will be a prelude to the unrest that will soon sweep through Russia as thousands of war-hardened, disillusioned, and often criminal war veterans return to their towns and villages. [b]The chaos is only beginning[/b].  [/quote]

Wagner Private Military Corporation (PMC) recruited tens of thousands of hardened Russian criminals from Russian prisons, with the promise of commuting their lengthy sentences in exchange for fighting against Ukraine.

Approximately 50% of the convict / soldiers were killed on the battle.

But the other 50% survived, and their 6-month contracts are now ending.

Surprisingly, Wagner and the Kremlin are actually honoring the contracts, and releasing them from service with a clean record.

[b]Tens of thousands of combat-scared, convicted criminals who’d otherwise still be in jail, will soon be roaming free all over Russia, many with untreated PTSD.
[/b]
How do you think that’s going to go?[/quote]

In terms of population studies, extrapolated to total population of Russia, that's not very much at all.[/quote]

Hmm.  That analysis is skewed.  There are two factors involved.

Overall, Russia has as high an incarceration rate as the US, but the inmate population is radically different.

It is true that the most recent prisoners are mostly anti-Putin or anti-war protesters.  In the US they would be normally law abiding citizens.  However, given that they protested against Putin and/or the war, they could be pardoned out the kazoo, but that will never erase their FSB files.  Since they're labeled for Life, sooner or later this will become a discontented, disgruntled segment of the population.

The other type of criminal are the SUPERMAX, hardcore types.  Many things that are illegal here in the US are perfectly fine in Russia.  For example, domestic violence, rape, death by FSB, most state corruption, etc. are rarely if ever prosecuted.  The crime would need to be against someone important and higher up in the food chain.  These criminals are dangerous to anyone in Russia, and given how they were treated in the Ukraine; I doubt things will go well.

There is also a misperception that Russia is so huge that release of inmates won't have an effect.  Russia is about twice as large as the US with half the population.  That means there are more places to hide with fewer cops / FSB per square kilometer than you would find in the US.

Either way you look at the convict release numbers, they would be significant.[/quote]

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