Metrics for taking kids out of school

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

Indications also are that all elementary kids could get their first shot by October. Whatever risk exists now won’t exist for much longer.

So some leave of absence in September may be worth the try

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

Indications also are that all elementary kids could get their first shot by October. Whatever risk exists now won’t exist for much longer.

So some leave of absence in September may be worth the try

And through October, since the FDA will need time to study the EUA application. And then through November, to wait until your child can get both shots. And then through December, because you'll be worried abut Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

Indications also are that all elementary kids could get their first shot by October. Whatever risk exists now won’t exist for much longer.

So some leave of absence in September may be worth the try

And through October, since the FDA will need time to study the EUA application. And then through November, to wait until your child can get both shots. And then through December, because you'll be worried abut Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.

Some studies show one shot is already good at preventing severe disease.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

Indications also are that all elementary kids could get their first shot by October. Whatever risk exists now won’t exist for much longer.

So some leave of absence in September may be worth the try

And through October, since the FDA will need time to study the EUA application. And then through November, to wait until your child can get both shots. And then through December, because you'll be worried abut Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.

Some studies show one shot is already good at preventing severe disease.

For kids specifically with the lower dose? Link to these studies please.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

Indications also are that all elementary kids could get their first shot by October. Whatever risk exists now won’t exist for much longer.

So some leave of absence in September may be worth the try

And through October, since the FDA will need time to study the EUA application. And then through November, to wait until your child can get both shots. And then through December, because you'll be worried abut Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.

Some studies show one shot is already good at preventing severe disease.

For kids specifically with the lower dose? Link to these studies please.

No data on kids yet. But for adult there is study.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/one-dose-covid-19-vaccine-offers-solid-protection-against-severe-disease

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

Indications also are that all elementary kids could get their first shot by October. Whatever risk exists now won’t exist for much longer.

So some leave of absence in September may be worth the try

And through October, since the FDA will need time to study the EUA application. And then through November, to wait until your child can get both shots. And then through December, because you'll be worried abut Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.

After that (or maybe before that), there will be another variant. And then it will be spring break. And then...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

I wish that people would stop saying "exponential" when they mean "going up really fast." An exponential function is f(x) = ab^x. Desmos has a great free on-line graphing calculator that will allow you to plug in values of x: https://www.desmos.com/calculator and figure out for yourself why "exponential" doesn't mean that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

I wish that people would stop saying "exponential" when they mean "going up really fast." An exponential function is f(x) = ab^x. Desmos has a great free on-line graphing calculator that will allow you to plug in values of x: https://www.desmos.com/calculator and figure out for yourself why "exponential" doesn't mean that.

I don't understand your argument. A disease with an R0 value greater than one spreads exponentially.

See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/13/kit-yates-the-dangers-of-allowing-exponential-growth/ ("R tells us the number of new infections each infectious individual might expect to seed in the population during the course of their infectious period. If R is below one then cases will fall, but if R is above one, then cases will rise—exponentially.")

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

We could. But most of MoCo who are vaccine eligible are vaxxed. Most kids and most vaxxed adults don't have significant trouble.

Remember, 99% of hospitalizations and deaths are from unvaxxed adults.

You cannot fight hysteria with logic. At some point, we need to come out of the COVID trance. The 7-day moving average of deaths in MoCo today is 1 and has been 0 most days since June. No one is talking about how deaths and hospitalizations are pulling apart from cases. All of the people who just keep going on and on about delta, breakthrough infections, gloom and doom, etc. sound crazy. They are just as divorced from reality as the people who believe COVID is a scamdemic. I believe 80 percent of our country has lost its mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

I wish that people would stop saying "exponential" when they mean "going up really fast." An exponential function is f(x) = ab^x. Desmos has a great free on-line graphing calculator that will allow you to plug in values of x: https://www.desmos.com/calculator and figure out for yourself why "exponential" doesn't mean that.

I don't understand your argument. A disease with an R0 value greater than one spreads exponentially.

See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/13/kit-yates-the-dangers-of-allowing-exponential-growth/ ("R tells us the number of new infections each infectious individual might expect to seed in the population during the course of their infectious period. If R is below one then cases will fall, but if R is above one, then cases will rise—exponentially.")

Yeah, I don't really get what point that PP is trying to make. From a modeling perspective, case counts will grow exponentially if each infected individual, on average, transmits to more than one other person.

Though, I think people are getting too hung up on the "exponential" term. For any period of time, exponential growth can be arbitrarily small. e.g., n= 1.000001^t. Furthermore, we obviously know R0 isn't constant over time, even when we don't significantly change mitigation measures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You do know that unenrolling kids can affect the staffing allocations at your school, right? Then, if the school loses a teaching position, they will have to hire a teacher if a bunch of kids are re-enrolled, potentially meaning your kid will be in an overcrowded class until that position can be filled. At which point you’ll come here and post about the overcrowded classes at your children’s school, won’t you?!

Well how many parents are really going to send their kids in when things go out of control but MCPS still opens no matter what, business at usual? Many parents are going to back down before the state would order MCPS to close.

I am sending my kids every day I am allowed. Just like I did last year (we temp moved in with my sister in Illinois). Every single day. Parents here just need to break the seal on re-entry into the world. In most other places people have masked up and moved on. Covid is officially endemic now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with.

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.

since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it

I wish that people would stop saying "exponential" when they mean "going up really fast." An exponential function is f(x) = ab^x. Desmos has a great free on-line graphing calculator that will allow you to plug in values of x: https://www.desmos.com/calculator and figure out for yourself why "exponential" doesn't mean that.

I don't understand your argument. A disease with an R0 value greater than one spreads exponentially.

See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/13/kit-yates-the-dangers-of-allowing-exponential-growth/ ("R tells us the number of new infections each infectious individual might expect to seed in the population during the course of their infectious period. If R is below one then cases will fall, but if R is above one, then cases will rise—exponentially.")

Yeah, I don't really get what point that PP is trying to make. From a modeling perspective, case counts will grow exponentially if each infected individual, on average, transmits to more than one other person.

Though, I think people are getting too hung up on the "exponential" term. For any period of time, exponential growth can be arbitrarily small. e.g., n= 1.000001^t. Furthermore, we obviously know R0 isn't constant over time, even when we don't significantly change mitigation measures.

Exactly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You do know that unenrolling kids can affect the staffing allocations at your school, right? Then, if the school loses a teaching position, they will have to hire a teacher if a bunch of kids are re-enrolled, potentially meaning your kid will be in an overcrowded class until that position can be filled. At which point you’ll come here and post about the overcrowded classes at your children’s school, won’t you?!

Well how many parents are really going to send their kids in when things go out of control but MCPS still opens no matter what, business at usual? Many parents are going to back down before the state would order MCPS to close.

I am sending my kids every day I am allowed. Just like I did last year (we temp moved in with my sister in Illinois). Every single day. Parents here just need to break the seal on re-entry into the world. In most other places people have masked up and moved on. Covid is officially endemic now.

Of course, in many other places, people didn't wear masks, didn't get vaccinated, moved on, and are now filling up the ICUs...

But we are in Montgomery County, where that did not happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You do know that unenrolling kids can affect the staffing allocations at your school, right? Then, if the school loses a teaching position, they will have to hire a teacher if a bunch of kids are re-enrolled, potentially meaning your kid will be in an overcrowded class until that position can be filled. At which point you’ll come here and post about the overcrowded classes at your children’s school, won’t you?!

Well how many parents are really going to send their kids in when things go out of control but MCPS still opens no matter what, business at usual? Many parents are going to back down before the state would order MCPS to close.

I very much doubt that. I don't know what you think of state actions on COVID so far, but Hogan has a high approval rating (higher among Democrats than Republicans), and broadly speaking, the state has not demonstrated a reckless attitude towards COVID. I don't think you have a good grasp of the real world if you think parents would pull out of MCPS before the state would close schools. And I also suspect you have some extreme views on what would constitute "out of control."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You do know that unenrolling kids can affect the staffing allocations at your school, right? Then, if the school loses a teaching position, they will have to hire a teacher if a bunch of kids are re-enrolled, potentially meaning your kid will be in an overcrowded class until that position can be filled. At which point you’ll come here and post about the overcrowded classes at your children’s school, won’t you?!

Well how many parents are really going to send their kids in when things go out of control but MCPS still opens no matter what, business at usual? Many parents are going to back down before the state would order MCPS to close.

I am sending my kids every day I am allowed. Just like I did last year (we temp moved in with my sister in Illinois). Every single day. Parents here just need to break the seal on re-entry into the world. In most other places people have masked up and moved on. Covid is officially endemic now.

Of course, in many other places, people didn't wear masks, didn't get vaccinated, moved on, and are now filling up the ICUs...

But we are in Montgomery County, where that did not happen.

There are plenty of affluent educated democratic suburbs that didn’t irreparably damage children, families, and women’ careers last year. I was in one of them outside Chicago. Moco was special. Especially wrong and inept when it came to schools. I know it’s hard to admit you let your kids be harmed but forcing them to do first grade on zoom (does it sound crazy yet? It won’t age well).