Reply to Metrics for taking kids out of school

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Talking to a few other parents and realized some of them are going to send their kids and watch what happens. Most have a backup plan that when certain number of cases happen in school, they’ll just pull their kids out. Just wonder how many of us are thinking about this and what metrics you’re comfortable with. [/quote]

The case count is a LAGGING indicator of how many children in your school have covid. If you're okay with that go for it.[/quote]
since the spread is exponential we could have a serious crisis on our hands before we know it[/quote]

I wish that people would stop saying "exponential" when they mean "going up really fast." An exponential function is f(x) = ab^x. Desmos has a great free on-line graphing calculator that will allow you to plug in values of x: https://www.desmos.com/calculator and figure out for yourself why "exponential" doesn't mean that.[/quote]
I don't understand your argument. A disease with an R0 value greater than one spreads exponentially.

See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/13/kit-yates-the-dangers-of-allowing-exponential-growth/ ("R tells us the number of new infections each infectious individual might expect to seed in the population during the course of their infectious period. If R is below one then cases will fall, but if R is above one, then cases will rise—exponentially.")[/quote]

Yeah, I don't really get what point that PP is trying to make.  From a modeling perspective, case counts will grow exponentially if each infected individual, on average, transmits to more than one other person.

Though, I think people are getting too hung up on the "exponential" term.  For any period of time, exponential growth can be arbitrarily small.  e.g., n= 1.000001^t.  Furthermore, we obviously know R0 isn't constant over time, even when we don't significantly change mitigation measures.

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