What happens with positive tests? Let’s predict the fall for elementary schools.

[Anonymous]

LOL everyone knows better than CDC!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:LOL everyone knows better than CDC!

CDC was, sadly, weakened under Trump. FDA too.

Only NIH was really allowed to have scientists run things. (Collins was kept on, while a crazy evangelical abstinence-preacher was installed to run CDC.)


Fauci this week:

Dr. Anthony Fauci:

I think it's both. And there are things about the Delta variant that are concerning.

So, when you had a high degree of capability of transmission, you had a certain number of people who would get infected, a certain percentage of children would get infected. And you remember back then, a long time ago, seemingly, they would say, oh, children generally don't get infected as much and they don't transmit as much.

We were dealing with a different virus then. Now you have a virus that does a big and better job of infecting anybody much more efficiently than the previous virus, including children. So, relatively speaking, you are seeing more children getting infected.

And just on numbers alone, when more children will get infected, a proportion of them, a small proportion, albeit, are going to wind up with serious disease, getting hospitalized. And that's one of the reason why, maybe the overwhelming reason, why you're seeing children in this particular context of Delta being in the hospital.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:LOL everyone knows better than CDC!

CDC was, sadly, weakened under Trump. FDA too.

Only NIH was really allowed to have scientists run things. (Collins was kept on, while a crazy evangelical abstinence-preacher was installed to run CDC.)


Fauci this week:

Dr. Anthony Fauci:

I think it's both. And there are things about the Delta variant that are concerning.

So, when you had a high degree of capability of transmission, you had a certain number of people who would get infected, a certain percentage of children would get infected. And you remember back then, a long time ago, seemingly, they would say, oh, children generally don't get infected as much and they don't transmit as much.

We were dealing with a different virus then. Now you have a virus that does a big and better job of infecting anybody much more efficiently than the previous virus, including children. So, relatively speaking, you are seeing more children getting infected.

And just on numbers alone, when more children will get infected, a proportion of them, a small proportion, albeit, are going to wind up with serious disease, getting hospitalized. And that's one of the reason why, maybe the overwhelming reason, why you're seeing children in this particular context of Delta being in the hospital.

Yeah....so the CDC is currently a Trump lackey, according to you. You sound....ehhhh...unhinged.

Fauci isn't saying anything new from what we've already known for weeks or more.

[Anonymous]

The CDC was weakened under Trump. Good people left. There was a hiring freeze. It was hard to bring in new people. The top Trump lackey damaged morale and got people to leave.

It’s going to take some time to recover.

When you have one political party spending 40 years trying to destroy government (to cut taxes on the billionaires that run that party) it’s no surprise that government doesn’t work well anymore when we need it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I expect my kid to be in person, five days a week, for the entire school year.

I mean so do I. But I understand the chance of that happening is about 5%.

I too hope so but I'm also realistic. This pandemic has not run its course. Who knows what it'll be like in 3 months' time.

[Anonymous]

The two factors that are unclear here, at least to me, are (1) when will the CDC change its close contact definition for elementary kids, and (2) when will the vaccine be approved for 5-12?

For (1), I think it depends on how many kids end up in ICUs or die in Florida and Texas and Alabama and Louisiana. We should have some info on that in a few weeks. If we are lucky, very few kids will have severe consequences from delta. But I do t think we know yet.

For vaccine approval, even if approved Oct 1, it will take a few weeks to get all kids their first dose and another 5-6 weeks after that for full immunity. So earliest we don’t have widespread vaccination till December.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So this is the CDC’s definition:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/contact-tracing/contact-tracing-plan/appendix.html#contact

Term
Close Contact
Definition
Close Contact through Proximity and Duration of Exposure: Someone who was within 6 feet of an infected person (laboratory-confirmed or a clinically compatible illness) for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period (for example, three individual 5-minute exposures for a total of 15 minutes). An infected person can spread SARS-CoV-2 starting from 2 days before they have any symptoms (or, for asymptomatic patients, 2 days before the positive specimen collection date), until they meet criteria for discontinuing home isolation.

Exception: In the K–12 indoor classroom setting, the close contact definition excludes students who were within 3 to 6 feet of an infected student (laboratory-confirmed or a clinically compatible illness) if both the infected student and the exposed student(s) correctly and consistently wore well-fitting masks the entire time.
This exception does not apply to teachers, staff, or other adults in the indoor classroom setting.

Exception?! Exception???

The CDC knows this is going to lead to spread. For alpha, I was with them. The transmission risk was a lot lower and if some kids got it fine.

But delta is a different ball of wax, as Francis Collins and Fauci have been saying this week.

F. This is going to be a hot mess.

I know, right???
That exception. And those 6 feet indoors, with or without an exception, are from the ancestral covid days of an airborne but not very contagious covid, and were already wrong, because they represented how inexplicably reluctant all public health organizations have been to accept the obvious fact that covid is airborne. But with delta! Unforgivable.

[Anonymous]

Also by definition surgical masks are not “well-fitting”.

[Anonymous]

Were you guys not paying attention to this? See this thread from a week ago: https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/992772.page

[Anonymous]

That is right. Some parents are thrilled that being in close contact with a positive child wearing an old navy mask below his nose will not result in quarantines. It certainly does make life easier for DCPS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That is right. Some parents are thrilled that being in close contact with a positive child wearing an old navy mask below his nose will not result in quarantines. It certainly does make life easier for DCPS.

+1

[Anonymous]

I am simply impressed that the people on this thread that are SHOCKED by the CDC guidance and are therefore newly worried about school safety have only now started paying attention.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The two factors that are unclear here, at least to me, are (1) when will the CDC change its close contact definition for elementary kids, and (2) when will the vaccine be approved for 5-12?

For (1), I think it depends on how many kids end up in ICUs or die in Florida and Texas and Alabama and Louisiana. We should have some info on that in a few weeks. If we are lucky, very few kids will have severe consequences from delta. But I do t think we know yet.

For vaccine approval, even if approved Oct 1, it will take a few weeks to get all kids their first dose and another 5-6 weeks after that for full immunity. So earliest we don’t have widespread vaccination till December.

I do think the vaccine approval will help those individual families who are worried about COVID feel more comfortable because they will get their kid the vaccine. I think for a public health standpoint it won’t change much of the trajectory of the pandemic because such a low percent of parents will get that age group vaccinated.

[Anonymous]

it's by no means a given that the FDA will approve the vaccine for the under 12 set. I certainly hope they do but it hasn't been decided yet. There is actually research being conducted---they're not just currently rubber stamping forms during this waiting period. I used to work in pediatric vaccine safety research and many of my former colleagues are skeptical that this will be approved.

We can't be waiting on the pediatric vaccine to save us because it may ever come.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:it's by no means a given that the FDA will approve the vaccine for the under 12 set. I certainly hope they do but it hasn't been decided yet. There is actually research being conducted---they're not just currently rubber stamping forms during this waiting period. I used to work in pediatric vaccine safety research and many of my former colleagues are skeptical that this will be approved.

We can't be waiting on the pediatric vaccine to save us because it may ever come.

Tell the people why we might never have an under-12 vaccine.