What happens with positive tests? Let’s predict the fall for elementary schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also there are now 98 kids in the virtual academy.

0.2% of DCPS students.

Because they are requiring a doctors note.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So if I don't send my kid because I am afraid of transmission and there is no virtual option, they will call CPS on me? Or can I just fake symptoms or exposure to keep them out for as long as I don't feel comfortable? I don't see how DCPS can enforce anything at this point.

I think you could fake symptoms or exposure. How would they ever know?

The same rules apply as pre-COVID. If you are out due to illness, you eventually need a doctor’s note for it to be excused. But regardless, sure, you might be able to fake symptoms for a week or something without red flags, but if your child continues to be out due to “symptoms,” that is a GUARANTEED CPS report and home visit. And once you have an open file with CPS, that never disappears. They might close the case, but you will always be a parent who has a CPS file. And you are surely going to be instructed to send your child in when they discover you are full of crap

[Anonymous]

They are using saliva tests. This particular company had pretty decent study results but that was pre-Delta and saliva tests notoriously do significantly poorer in real life application than in the trials. The false negative rate is comparatively really high. This is why even this test says that it should not be used for asymptomatic individuals unless they are being tested AT LEAST once per week, which is not what DCPS is doing. They further state that per the FDA’s authorization of the test, one negative test cannot be viewed as a negative. Need at least two negatives within 7 days. Why? Because false negatives are super high with saliva tests for asymptomatic individuals (which by the way this test did not include in its trial studies)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They are using saliva tests. This particular company had pretty decent study results but that was pre-Delta and saliva tests notoriously do significantly poorer in real life application than in the trials. The false negative rate is comparatively really high. This is why even this test says that it should not be used for asymptomatic individuals unless they are being tested AT LEAST once per week, which is not what DCPS is doing. They further state that per the FDA’s authorization of the test, one negative test cannot be viewed as a negative. Need at least two negatives within 7 days. Why? Because false negatives are super high with saliva tests for asymptomatic individuals (which by the way this test did not include in its trial studies)

Soooooo....what you're saying is that the testing is unlikely to prevent any spread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also there are now 98 kids in the virtual academy.

0.2% of DCPS students.

Because they are requiring a doctors note.

My point in posting that was that it was up from the 19 originally admitted. It seems that the enrollment in the virtual academy is ongoing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also there are now 98 kids in the virtual academy.

0.2% of DCPS students.

Because they are requiring a doctors note.

My point in posting that was that it was up from the 19 originally admitted. It seems that the enrollment in the virtual academy is ongoing.

Yes.
0.04% to 0.2%

🥳

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also there are now 98 kids in the virtual academy.

0.2% of DCPS students.

Because they are requiring a doctors note.

My point in posting that was that it was up from the 19 originally admitted. It seems that the enrollment in the virtual academy is ongoing.

Yes.
0.04% to 0.2%

🥳

Yes, those are numbers and an emoji. Thank you.

[Anonymous]

I also think the vaccination rates may not be super accurate. My husband and I are both fully vaccinated, but we got them through our employer, the Feds. I didnt have to attest to which state I am a resident of, and although most colleagues live in VA, we live in DC and I am pretty sure we were not counted as being fully vaxxed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I also think the vaccination rates may not be super accurate. My husband and I are both fully vaccinated, but we got them through our employer, the Feds. I didnt have to attest to which state I am a resident of, and although most colleagues live in VA, we live in DC and I am pretty sure we were not counted as being fully vaxxed.

Agree. We live in Upper NW and got vaccinated in Maryland, as I’m sure were many of our neighbors. Not sure if those vaccinations are counted by DC. FWIW, I have yet to meet a parent from our school who isn’t vaccinated, and I’m confident most teachers are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They are using saliva tests. This particular company had pretty decent study results but that was pre-Delta and saliva tests notoriously do significantly poorer in real life application than in the trials. The false negative rate is comparatively really high. This is why even this test says that it should not be used for asymptomatic individuals unless they are being tested AT LEAST once per week, which is not what DCPS is doing. They further state that per the FDA’s authorization of the test, one negative test cannot be viewed as a negative. Need at least two negatives within 7 days. Why? Because false negatives are super high with saliva tests for asymptomatic individuals (which by the way this test did not include in its trial studies)

Soooooo....what you're saying is that the testing is unlikely to prevent any spread.

This is frustrating. Neither are the improved air handling systems…
https://twitter.com/petworthdcnews/status/1428539335679299588?s=21

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I also think the vaccination rates may not be super accurate. My husband and I are both fully vaccinated, but we got them through our employer, the Feds. I didnt have to attest to which state I am a resident of, and although most colleagues live in VA, we live in DC and I am pretty sure we were not counted as being fully vaxxed.

Agree. We live in Upper NW and got vaccinated in Maryland, as I’m sure were many of our neighbors. Not sure if those vaccinations are counted by DC. FWIW, I have yet to meet a parent from our school who isn’t vaccinated, and I’m confident most teachers are.

I am in Ward 5 and this is my experience too. I don’t know anyone in DC who is unvaccinated by choice. I was vaccinated in DC through the DC Health system, so they know about me. But my DH got his in Maryland at a federally run facility and they couldn’t even find the record if his first shot when he showed up for his second (luckily he had his card with him). No way the DC numbers are accurate.

Now that they are requiring teachers and staff to be vaccinated or submit to testing, we should get a more accurate number for that by the time school is in session (some teachers haven’t even reported back yet). I would like to hope that the vaccination requirement has induced some reluctant teachers to vaccinate. I’m sure some people will still refuse, but having to test constantly would be really burdensome. Though the frequent mandatory testing of any unvaccinated adults should also help us find out more quickly what is happening with delta in schools. Unvaccinated adults pose a significantly higher threat of spreading Covid than most kids, especially young kids, because even with delta kids are much more likely to be a asymptomatic or have very mild cases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pediatric EUA will be authorized by Oct 1. You heard it here first.

There hasn’t even been a submission to FDA yet.

There’s not even an FDA director.

If you have insider knowledge about how FDA’s normal processes will be short circuited, please let us know.

Not the one making the Oct 1 prediction, but my understanding is that Pfizer is expected to file the expanded EUA in September or October. The fact that there is not a confirmed FDA Commissioner doesn’t matter. The EUA for older children was approved under Acting Director Woodcock. As an aside, it is ridiculous that there hasn’t been a nominee even named yet in the middle of a global pandemic.

No insider knowledge. Just what is being reported by mainstream news sources.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So if DCPS really plans on not quarantining after exposure in a classroom (my god!) then the question becomes: when other schools have done this, with masking, how much spread was there?

Good news is we have a week and half to wait for other schools to test this about delta for us.

The UK already did. Without masks even. (Let me be clear I am in favor of masks)

Not a fair comparison. UK did daily rapid testing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pediatric EUA will be authorized by Oct 1. You heard it here first.

There hasn’t even been a submission to FDA yet.

There’s not even an FDA director.

If you have insider knowledge about how FDA’s normal processes will be short circuited, please let us know.

Not the one making the Oct 1 prediction, but my understanding is that Pfizer is expected to file the expanded EUA in September or October. The fact that there is not a confirmed FDA Commissioner doesn’t matter. The EUA for older children was approved under Acting Director Woodcock. As an aside, it is ridiculous that there hasn’t been a nominee even named yet in the middle of a global pandemic.

No insider knowledge. Just what is being reported by mainstream news sources.

So how come we are still waiting on the FDA to approve Moderna for 12-17 yo’s from their submission in JUNE?!?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ok, actual prediction here.

I think that like school reopening in the spring, there are going to be massive disparities between schools in terms of cases, quarantines, and this indoor instruction.

Schools in NW, on the Hill, and sought-after charters will largely weather this ok. There will be cases and quarantined. However, if you have friends and family in places that opened schools last year but followed mitigation measures (do talking Colorado, not Florida or Texas here), you know it was a pain but also okay. Yes, sometimes kids have to stay home. But they are in school more than not. No kids got seriously ill. You guys will be fine.

Those of us in schools where most families must work in person, where kids are much more likely to live in multi-family housing, and where families don’t have the same access to quality healthcare? I expect rolling quarantined and limited in person instruction.

Just like last year, and always, rich white families will be fine while complaining the loudest. The rest of us will struggle but what we want/need will get drowned out by the rich white patents arguing with each other.

This makes sense to me except all signs are pointing to no quarantines in DCPS this year. And unlike schools in the south our teachers will be vaxed so they won’t be out sick as much. So the problem won’t be kids out of school due to quarantines. The problem will be rampant covid spread in elementary schools at least. Even when most parents are vaccinated this doesn’t help once a case enters a school where the vast majority if its occupants is too young to be vaccinated. I agree it will hit the lower income schools first. But I don’t think that the NW schools will be too far behind.

I agree with this prediction. No quarantines/closures, thus significant spread among unvaxed under 12, and even middle/high school bc many of them are unvaxxed. Just my prediction. We will see.

I think you will see quarantines in spite of the DCPS policy. Anytime there is a COVID test the result is reported to DOH. Kids will be at home. Once parents realize 4-5 kids are out of their kids classes more will pull out.

I think it’s going to be a disaster because central office is so incompetent. I don’t think upper nw will be spared at all.

Good point. I assume schools have to notify parents when there is a positive in the class, right?

Yes

Nope. That has changed this year. Only close contacts will be notified.