Winter is going to be a covid sh*t show

[Anonymous]

I don't know... I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop for months, and it really hasn't. Our school (in the west) has been in person for 7-8 weeks and everything's been hunky dory there. We've been remote, waiting for this sh*t show to start and I can't help but think we've wasted the past couple of months for nothing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know... I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop for months, and it really hasn't. Our school (in the west) has been in person for 7-8 weeks and everything's been hunky dory there. We've been remote, waiting for this sh*t show to start and I can't help but think we've wasted the past couple of months for nothing.

I don't know if it is for nothing, but I do wonder if the there are a lot of people who are emotionally hijacked. I have a tendency to get overly anxious and was hit hard earlier this year. It was all dread and "it's gong to get worse in 2 weeks." The idea that it could ever get better wasn't permitted in my brain because "what if I'm wrong? The consequences would be awful." So, you have to always assume/prepare for the worse. The problem with that is you lose the ability to accurately assess danger. I think there are a lot of people whose brains are off, both directions, and it's hard to tell what's likely and what's an overreactive/underreactive survival instinct kicking in.

[Anonymous]

So you're saying no iconic massive NYE gathering inTime Square?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, very curious to see if they see a resurgence in NYC, for example. If not, herd immunity might be closer than we think.

Yes

[Anonymous]

Seems like all the states that were hit hard at the beginning have not had any resurgence despite opening and summer and kids going back to college etc. Massachusetts is doing fine. Little pockets of cases breaking out but no spike in hospitals or deaths. Connecticut New Jersey New York (except nyc) all seem to be doing fine. Nyc has to actually reopen before we know for sure.

[Anonymous]

The states that are still bad now were not bad when the northeast was hot hard they are still in first wave. Seems like that’s the pattern. Even when they say a state isnspikong back up - it’s not as severe as March and April. More cases are found. Less hospitalization and less deaths.

[Anonymous]

I think more people will get flu shot. More people still distancing. Etc. the is will not be a sh%^t show. Maybe even a better than usual fu season for all the precautions a being taken.

[Anonymous]

I think it might not be. Our numbers seem to be holding steady. Behaviour matters. Most people seem committed to masking and social distancing. I’m starting to think we’ll make it through the winter okay without a massive spike. Maybe an uptick, but nothing like the spring in NY.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The states that are still bad now were not bad when the northeast was hot hard they are still in first wave. Seems like that’s the pattern. Even when they say a state isnspikong back up - it’s not as severe as March and April. More cases are found. Less hospitalization and less deaths.

I think they’ve figured out how to treat it better. There was a lot of confusion in the early days, especially around the use of ventilators.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Your friendly resident virus expert here.

Well, it's already a sh*tshow! And in many European countries it's already a sh*tshow! In all countries that did not implement rapid testing and contact tracing, as well as strict isolation and quarantine.

If only we could be Germany, Vietnam, New Zealand, South Korea or Japan, or many countries in Africa (who accepted drastic measures from the get-go because they'd gone through the wringer with Ebola).

And in the US, we have the cherry on top, which is the government hiding valuable scientific facts from its population! Like the CDC removing information about the aerosolization of SARS-Cov-2. I weep for my CDC scientist colleagues, who've been near-suicidal since February.

1. Please do not push for school re-openings. Push for very strict mask compliance policies, very rapid Covid reporting and isolation measures, upgraded air filtration systems, specific training of school staff, availability of PPE, sanitizer and disinfectant, and hybrid plans in overcrowded schools that cannot accommodate all its student body because of physical distancing requirements.

2. Use the utmost caution when going into work. The above applies.

3. Wear masks when you go out of your home, and put masks on your kids. Unless you're a cowboy alone on the range, put on your mask.

4. Family Thanksgiving and gatherings, non-essential travel, parties, mall shopping, playdates: please think twice about them. Seriously, you shouldn't be doing any of those things.

5. Remember to wash/disinfect your hands when handling things others have touched (playground equipment, those files your colleague just handed to you, the wine your friend just handed to you for a distanced chat on the porch). It's good practice to disinfect your hands right before you enter your home, so you don't touch all your stuff with potentially contaminated hands.

Resident Virus Expert,

Do you actually have any real insight to share? Or just repeating the obvious? Wash hands, wear masks, avoid gatherings, our gov't sucked at handling this.

What insight did you think I'd have? I'm trying to persuade people who don't do these things on a regular basis, because they've become complacent over the months.

Do you want the inside scoop on vaccines? I'd stay away from any adenovirus-based vaccines if I were you.

NP. Interesting. Why?

I'm interested too.

I believe this one, https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/fourth-large-scale-covid-19-vaccine-trial-begins-united-states, just entering phase 3 trials, is adenovirus-based and I was intrigued that it's only one dose, which logistically seems much easier to administer and no worries about a second dose follow-up.

The AstraZeneca/Oxford one is too, I think? Do you base staying away from it because of the two possibly-related adverse effects? Or is there something else?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, very curious to see if they see a resurgence in NYC, for example. If not, herd immunity might be closer than we think.

Are you nuts? Herd immunity in a population of 330 million with 'only' 7 million infected? Even Sweden hasn't and won't achieve immunity and they only have 10 million citizens.

Probably more like 70 million infections. Plus, there appears to be some non-trivial portion of the population that has a natural immunity/resistance to the virus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Your friendly resident virus expert here.

Well, it's already a sh*tshow! And in many European countries it's already a sh*tshow! In all countries that did not implement rapid testing and contact tracing, as well as strict isolation and quarantine.

If only we could be Germany, Vietnam, New Zealand, South Korea or Japan, or many countries in Africa (who accepted drastic measures from the get-go because they'd gone through the wringer with Ebola).

And in the US, we have the cherry on top, which is the government hiding valuable scientific facts from its population! Like the CDC removing information about the aerosolization of SARS-Cov-2. I weep for my CDC scientist colleagues, who've been near-suicidal since February.

1. Please do not push for school re-openings. Push for very strict mask compliance policies, very rapid Covid reporting and isolation measures, upgraded air filtration systems, specific training of school staff, availability of PPE, sanitizer and disinfectant, and hybrid plans in overcrowded schools that cannot accommodate all its student body because of physical distancing requirements.

2. Use the utmost caution when going into work. The above applies.

3. Wear masks when you go out of your home, and put masks on your kids. Unless you're a cowboy alone on the range, put on your mask.

4. Family Thanksgiving and gatherings, non-essential travel, parties, mall shopping, playdates: please think twice about them. Seriously, you shouldn't be doing any of those things.

5. Remember to wash/disinfect your hands when handling things others have touched (playground equipment, those files your colleague just handed to you, the wine your friend just handed to you for a distanced chat on the porch). It's good practice to disinfect your hands right before you enter your home, so you don't touch all your stuff with potentially contaminated hands.

Resident Virus Expert,

Do you actually have any real insight to share? Or just repeating the obvious? Wash hands, wear masks, avoid gatherings, our gov't sucked at handling this.

What insight did you think I'd have? I'm trying to persuade people who don't do these things on a regular basis, because they've become complacent over the months.

Do you want the inside scoop on vaccines? I'd stay away from any adenovirus-based vaccines if I were you.

DP. Are you furloughed or something? Just not sure why you are posting her day and night essentially regurgitating information that we have known for months. If people aren’t willing to follow official guidance already, why do you think they’re more inclined to listen to an anonymous poster who claims to be a “virus expert”? Just so strange.

[Anonymous]

I kind of wonder if it won’t be the opposite of the summer- spike in northeastern states but not so much the south and west. Yeah many of those states opened prematurely, but lots of time indoors in the AC during the brutal summer. Now they’ll be spending more time outside as the northern states spend more time inside (and perhaps have gotten a bit complacent with low rates).

I don’t know, I’m just not sure it’s so simple as all the US will be a sh-tshow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, very curious to see if they see a resurgence in NYC, for example. If not, herd immunity might be closer than we think.

Are you nuts? Herd immunity in a population of 330 million with 'only' 7 million infected? Even Sweden hasn't and won't achieve immunity and they only have 10 million citizens.

Where are you getting that infection rate? Many people don't get tested so we don't have accurate numbers.

Exactly, we have no idea how many people have actually been infected. No idea.

[Anonymous]

I think more people will get flu shot. More people still distancing. Etc. the is will not be a sh%^t show. Maybe even a better than usual fu season for all the precautions a being taken.

I agree. Between the social distancing measures that many states still have in place, the at least partial herd immunity in hard-hit states, better and more successful treatment, and (for better or worse) the still fairly wide-spread school closures, I don't think fall/winter will be a "sh#t show." I definitely think there will be "new" pockets of transmission, ("hot pockets"?) particularly in the places that haven't really had many cases in the first place. But I don't see a massive second wave.