Second Great Depression

[Anonymous]

Back of the envelop analysis for sure but here goes:

Service sector is 2/3 of GDP

Almost all of that is at a standstill

US GDP is 22T

2/3 of that is approx 15T

Therefore gov has to subsidize economy by 1.2T a month to keep things whole

This is not sustainable

Goldman Sachs is predicting a 24% contraction. Treasury secretary has said unemployment could reach 20%.

For those that say we have always come out of a recession and over 5-10 years market will show gains, we have never had a recession that has started in the service sector. History is not necessarily a guide.

If we remain the course of lockdowns we are in dire conditions economically. And if we loosen things up we are risking human life and an overwhelmed healthcare system. Sophie’s choice.

Vaccines are being tested and fast tracked but usually take 12-18 months so even with speed would be at least 6 months away I would think?

The only thing I think can move the needle is for the Federal Govt to have the entire military operation and supply chain working on this (war ships turned into hospitals, setting up field hospitals in land, training military to operate ventilators, turning our entire military product lines to produce medical equipment, etc. Any bailout for Boeing & others should be conditioned on them marshaling resources to fight the virus (and / or provide care for other medical issues)

Obviously this is just my own take on the situation and to each their own. No need to get testy in replying to me - I sure hope I am wrong!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are two main considerations in the U.S. response to coronavirus. One is public health. The other is economic. The U.S. is currently focusing entirely on public health. As a result, the economic devastation will be enormous.

Exactly. But what no one is accounting for is that economic devastation takes a huge toll on public health. We are saving old/sick people and in turn sacrificing the futures & health of the young and able.

What if it’s you who dies? It’s not just old people. We should have triaged the economy and shut down air travel. Air travel is the first thing you shut down if you want to stop the spread. It spread the virus to every state. Without air travel this would have spread much slower and we could have stayed ahead of it.

[Anonymous]

Personally I think the risk is real. The good news I think is that unlike natural disasters like hurricanes or tornadoes, the infrastructure is whole, so once the 'storm' has passed, we have a system that can work.

But it doesn't mean the economy will just restart. All those wages lost. State and local budgets decimated by the loss of income and sales taxes, and the huge demand on social services. Most of the country won't have enough spending power to make up for all of the unemployed.

For once I really hope the Orange Idiot is right and the drugs being tried might actually work to reduce the devastation of the virus.

Also, for all those screeching about caring about people dying, not money, I think you are among those who have not lost their jobs. Those people who can't make rent, can't buy food, might have a different take on the risk they are willing to take.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Back of the envelop analysis for sure but here goes:

Service sector is 2/3 of GDP

Almost all of that is at a standstill

US GDP is 22T

2/3 of that is approx 15T

Therefore gov has to subsidize economy by 1.2T a month to keep things whole

This is not sustainable

Goldman Sachs is predicting a 24% contraction. Treasury secretary has said unemployment could reach 20%.

For those that say we have always come out of a recession and over 5-10 years market will show gains, we have never had a recession that has started in the service sector. History is not necessarily a guide.

If we remain the course of lockdowns we are in dire conditions economically. And if we loosen things up we are risking human life and an overwhelmed healthcare system. Sophie’s choice.

Vaccines are being tested and fast tracked but usually take 12-18 months so even with speed would be at least 6 months away I would think?

The only thing I think can move the needle is for the Federal Govt to have the entire military operation and supply chain working on this (war ships turned into hospitals, setting up field hospitals in land, training military to operate ventilators, turning our entire military product lines to produce medical equipment, etc. Any bailout for Boeing & others should be conditioned on them marshaling resources to fight the virus (and / or provide care for other medical issues)

Obviously this is just my own take on the situation and to each their own. No need to get testy in replying to me - I sure hope I am wrong!!

Interesting analysis.. Do you have comparable analysis of the economy from around the great depression times and how that relates to today?

Do you think manufacturing economies would recover sooner? If so, wouldn't they (e.g. China) lend money to the US and Europe to stimulate their economies so they can sell goods to them?

It sure won't be at the same level (multiple trillions) but enough to kickstart, I'd hope..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Personally I think the risk is real. The good news I think is that unlike natural disasters like hurricanes or tornadoes, the infrastructure is whole, so once the 'storm' has passed, we have a system that can work.

But it doesn't mean the economy will just restart. All those wages lost. State and local budgets decimated by the loss of income and sales taxes, and the huge demand on social services. Most of the country won't have enough spending power to make up for all of the unemployed.

For once I really hope the Orange Idiot is right and the drugs being tried might actually work to reduce the devastation of the virus.

Also, for all those screeching about caring about people dying, not money, I think you are among those who have not lost their jobs. Those people who can't make rent, can't buy food, might have a different take on the risk they are willing to take.

+1.

[Anonymous]

I don’t think calling it the ‘Chinese’ virus is going to help when we need their (competent and frugal) assistance bc we are collectively a hot mess.

[Anonymous]

The S storm begins. 300,000 layoffs deluge in NYC alone:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-nyc-restaurants-face-mass-layoffs.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The checks are only for folks who earned under 95k last year

Hasn’t been finalized but rumor is it’s based on 2018 income taxes NOT 2019.

Thank God! We faced unexpected OOP medical expenses and loss of income in caring for my dad just before the pandemic started. On paper, my siblings and I look good, but it’s not.

Same situation here with the sick parent, etc. I was just getting back on track when the pandemic happened.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No. I do not think there will be a great depression. There will be a temporary hit for 1 or 2 years, but the world will rally after that.
Mainly because this is quarantining in place for a disease that is not killing like Black Death. Once a vaccine is formulated world will rally back very quickly.

If Govt helps out individuals (instead of industries) and every one goes in a frozen/holding pattern, we will be fine.

I do think that some industries will go down and some other industries will come up.

This is not a weather related disaster. We are not in the shoes of Puerto Rico after the Hurricane hit and Trump did not help. We are still sheltering in place with our families, in air conditioned homes, with wifi and food. This is basically...a vacation for many.

Agreed. Recession, yes, definitely not another Great Depression. Even in quarantine, our lives are cushy. Gyms are live streaming classes, grocery delivery is a thing, we have wifi, etc. We're just so privileged that any sacrifice feels catastrophic to some. I'm not just picking on others either. I've had to check my own privilege during this time about what constitutes a necessity.

The markets will rebound and those of us who stayed the course will be rewarded for it.

[Anonymous]

If there is a big recession, it will be worldwide
US economy is big enough to drag other economies down with it. Currently the dollar is not backed by gold but by the strength of the US economy

Interesting question; If this does cause a major recession, will it affect US aid given to Israel?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Back of the envelop analysis for sure but here goes:

Service sector is 2/3 of GDP

Almost all of that is at a standstill

US GDP is 22T

2/3 of that is approx 15T

Therefore gov has to subsidize economy by 1.2T a month to keep things whole

This is not sustainable

Goldman Sachs is predicting a 24% contraction. Treasury secretary has said unemployment could reach 20%.

For those that say we have always come out of a recession and over 5-10 years market will show gains, we have never had a recession that has started in the service sector. History is not necessarily a guide.

If we remain the course of lockdowns we are in dire conditions economically. And if we loosen things up we are risking human life and an overwhelmed healthcare system. Sophie’s choice.

Vaccines are being tested and fast tracked but usually take 12-18 months so even with speed would be at least 6 months away I would think?

The only thing I think can move the needle is for the Federal Govt to have the entire military operation and supply chain working on this (war ships turned into hospitals, setting up field hospitals in land, training military to operate ventilators, turning our entire military product lines to produce medical equipment, etc. Any bailout for Boeing & others should be conditioned on them marshaling resources to fight the virus (and / or provide care for other medical issues)

Obviously this is just my own take on the situation and to each their own. No need to get testy in replying to me - I sure hope I am wrong!!

I think you are absolutely correct.

And, although I understand this simplifies things, I will be right pissed if we bail out the airline industry -- which Tooke in record profits and bought back shares with them -- but somehow can't find the money to bail out the people who are in this war, whether as those working under terrible conditions through it, or those who know they must not (or can't) and can see bankruptcy ahead. I do not find the airlines more essential than us.

That being said, if people are supposed to sell off assets if they cannot borrow to get through this, why not the "bail-out guys?" Yes, we need airline travel at some point. Why would a bail-out be a gift and not a repayable loan, or why not be required to give up some capital to somebody?

[Anonymous]

PP here with stats from Great Depression.

GDP contracted 30% and unemployment reached 20% over FOUR years. We are at risk of it happening over 4 months (Q2). (Again Goldman Sachs has called for a 24% contraction in GDP and treasury secretary said unemployment could reach 20%. These are of course projections/estimates but scary as heck)

https://www.britannica.com/event/Great-Depression

I would love to be convinced that we are not about to enter a depression but so far the posts debating the point have not convinced me. Statements along the lines of “once this is all over there will be pent up demand and things will bounce back” are a lovely thought but I cannot see how this will happen. So many people will be out of work and many businesses shut down once this is over. The fed govt can offer a bailout package but just cannot support the entirety of 2/3 of GDP for more than a few months.

This is the time for belt tightening, large infrastructure projects if we can afford them, and the entirety of our defense operations and production to be redirected to fighting the virus. Can we see the Trump Administration being able to pull this off?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The checks are only for folks who earned under 95k last year

Hasn’t been finalized but rumor is it’s based on 2018 income taxes NOT 2019.

Has to be. 2019 isn’t due yet

[Anonymous]

I hope people realize that if we had widespread easily available testing, surge capacity at hospitals, and good unemployment insurance, we would not be required to head into a depression to fight this virus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are two main considerations in the U.S. response to coronavirus. One is public health. The other is economic. The U.S. is currently focusing entirely on public health. As a result, the economic devastation will be enormous.

Exactly. But what no one is accounting for is that economic devastation takes a huge toll on public health. We are saving old/sick people and in turn sacrificing the futures & health of the young and able.

What if it’s you who dies? It’s not just old people. We should have triaged the economy and shut down air travel. Air travel is the first thing you shut down if you want to stop the spread. It spread the virus to every state. Without air travel this would have spread much slower and we could have stayed ahead of it.

+1
Aside from shutting domestic, which should have happened, we were still getting flights from Milan last week. That is just beyond comprehension to me