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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Back of the envelop analysis for sure but here goes:

Service sector is 2/3 of GDP

Almost all of that is at a standstill

US GDP is 22T

2/3 of that is approx 15T

Therefore gov has to subsidize economy by 1.2T a month to keep things whole

This is not sustainable

Goldman Sachs is predicting a 24% contraction.   Treasury secretary has said unemployment could reach 20%.

For those that say we have always come out of a recession and over 5-10 years market will show gains, we have never had a recession that has started in the service sector.  History is not necessarily a guide.

If we remain the course of lockdowns we are in dire conditions economically.  And if we loosen things up we are risking human life and an overwhelmed healthcare system.  Sophie’s choice.

Vaccines are being tested and fast tracked but usually take 12-18 months so even with speed would be at least 6 months away I would think?

The only thing I think can move the needle is for the Federal Govt to have the entire military operation and supply chain working on this (war ships turned into hospitals, setting up field hospitals in land, training military to operate ventilators, turning our entire military product lines to produce medical equipment, etc.  Any bailout for Boeing & others should be conditioned on them marshaling resources to fight the virus (and / or provide care for other medical issues)

Obviously this is just my own take on the situation and to each their own.  No need to get testy in replying to me - I sure hope I am wrong!!
[/quote]

I think you are absolutely correct.

And, although I understand this simplifies things, I will be right pissed if we bail out the airline industry -- which Tooke in record profits and bought back shares with them -- but somehow can't find the money to bail out the people who are in this war, whether as those working under terrible conditions through it, or those who know they must not (or can't) and can see bankruptcy ahead. I do not find the airlines more essential than us.

That being said, if people are supposed to sell off assets if they cannot borrow to get through this, why not the "bail-out guys?" Yes, we need airline travel at some point. Why would a bail-out be a gift and not a repayable loan, or why not be required to give up some capital to somebody?[/quote]

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