Second Great Depression

[Anonymous]

Who else thinks it's here?

[Anonymous]

I don't think people understand the magnitude of what is coming as a result of the pandemic.

Businesses large and small are in debt to their necks. Without cash flow, they will go bankrupt. We are about to see a huge wave of bankruptcies and massive layoffs.

One of the signs of this is that both stocks and bonds are selling off at the same time. That means people are not shifting money from stocks to bonds for safety, they are instead trying to liquidate all their investments (even at a loss) and raise cash as fast as possible to pay off debt. This will only work in the short term. If the economy is still halted months from now, bankruptcy is the only option. Jobless claims are already exploding, and a thousand bucks per American from the federal government won't make up the difference.

The government is preparing bailouts, but they can't bail out every industry. The nation can't afford it because our government is also deeply in debt. We are now adding trillions to the national debt in a matter of weeks while facing a fiscal cliff due to lack of tax revenue. The federal government's fiscal situation was already precarious, and this may tip it into our country's first default.

The only thing that will really help is a vaccine, and soon. Otherwise we are looking at an extended period of economic devastation. We will be lucky if it only lasts a few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think people understand the magnitude of what is coming as a result of the pandemic.

Businesses large and small are in debt to their necks. Without cash flow, they will go bankrupt. We are about to see a huge wave of bankruptcies and massive layoffs.

One of the signs of this is that both stocks and bonds are selling off at the same time. That means people are not shifting money from stocks to bonds for safety, they are instead trying to liquidate all their investments (even at a loss) and raise cash as fast as possible to pay off debt. This will only work in the short term. If the economy is still halted months from now, bankruptcy is the only option. Jobless claims are already exploding, and a thousand bucks per American from the federal government won't make up the difference.

The government is preparing bailouts, but they can't bail out every industry. The nation can't afford it because our government is also deeply in debt. We are now adding trillions to the national debt in a matter of weeks while facing a fiscal cliff due to lack of tax revenue. The federal government's fiscal situation was already precarious, and this may tip it into our country's first default.

The only thing that will really help is a vaccine, and soon. Otherwise we are looking at an extended period of economic devastation. We will be lucky if it only lasts a few years.

Dude. You posted this exact note on Real Estate as well. Can you give us a minute? Its been like 2 days - let us settle in and see where the economy is heading and if the stimulus package can help.

[Anonymous]

There are two main considerations in the U.S. response to coronavirus. One is public health. The other is economic. The U.S. is currently focusing entirely on public health. As a result, the economic devastation will be enormous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are two main considerations in the U.S. response to coronavirus. One is public health. The other is economic. The U.S. is currently focusing entirely on public health. As a result, the economic devastation will be enormous.

Public health was week one (of the GOP finally taking this seriously). Economy is week two. I fully expect to see bailout packages, $2K to all Americans on a monthly basis, and mortgage/rent freezes within 5 business days.

Also the damned tax filing date needs to be changed.

[Anonymous]

The checks are only for folks who earned under 95k last year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The checks are only for folks who earned under 95k last year

Hasn’t been finalized but rumor is it’s based on 2018 income taxes NOT 2019.

[Anonymous]

Nah. This will be over in a couple of months and the economy will rocket back.

[Anonymous]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html

- The coronavirus crisis is likely to result in layoffs on a scale that the U.S. has never seen before.

- Economists expect April to be the first reporting month when the damage starts to show up.

- Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.

- Weekly jobless claims numbers are expected to be so bad that the White House has reportedly asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

[Anonymous]

I'm fully expecting a sharp and severe recession followed with a sharp rebound. I can't tell you the timing or how long but I don't see a Great Depression either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm fully expecting a sharp and severe recession followed with a sharp rebound. I can't tell you the timing or how long but I don't see a Great Depression either.

Same. This whole this is the result of an event that has an end point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm fully expecting a sharp and severe recession followed with a sharp rebound. I can't tell you the timing or how long but I don't see a Great Depression either.

Same. This whole this is the result of an event that has an end point.

Sure, nothing lasts forever, but what is that end point? What if a vaccine is 18 months away, or if the virus comes back every year like the flu? Also, how will the economy restart after this sudden stop if millions are bankrupt and out of work?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The checks are only for folks who earned under 95k last year

Hasn’t been finalized but rumor is it’s based on 2018 income taxes NOT 2019.

Thank God! We faced unexpected OOP medical expenses and loss of income in caring for my dad just before the pandemic started. On paper, my siblings and I look good, but it’s not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are two main considerations in the U.S. response to coronavirus. One is public health. The other is economic. The U.S. is currently focusing entirely on public health. As a result, the economic devastation will be enormous.

Exactly. But what no one is accounting for is that economic devastation takes a huge toll on public health. We are saving old/sick people and in turn sacrificing the futures & health of the young and able.

[Anonymous]

Local layoff anecdotes: https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/866162.page