Just a few points to add some additional context to this. There are a lot of books available these days written by former college admissions officers that offer a window into what seems like an obscure/arcane process:
1. Many (although not all) colleges use the high school transcript as a starting point and make their own calculation of GPA -- for example, they might eliminate anything but the core courses or all grades in electives. It is also frequent practice to "unweight" weighted high school GPAs. Here's a link to a good blog post discussing this issue in the context of a panel of reps from 4-5 different colleges, most of which recalculated GPA: http://www.forsterthomas.com/admissionsconsultingblog/gpa-explained-how-top-universities-read-a-high-school-transcript
2. Course rigor is very important -- a very high GPA with non-honors or challenging courses will be discounted. Admissions officers realize that determining rigor can be quite subjective and it is often a big part of the "art, not science" element of their job.
3. Liberal arts colleges like the Ivies, Stanford and NESCAC schools, and many others besides, deal with their admissions in geographic pools. The same admissions rep will present the files for students in a particular region (e.g., the DMV). In many cases, if the rep has been there a while, they become familiar with schools down to the level of knowing about the "teaching legend" at a school who should be taken very seriously if he/she says a student is in the top few students of their career. For example, Yale had the same rep for this area for 30 years.
3A. They will present files of applicants from the same schools together. It's a pretty easy way of comparing rigor of courseload and level of enthusiasm of teacher recommendations.
4. For Ivies, NESCACS, and other schools that have had many DC independent school alums matriculate over the years, they understand very well what kind of grade deflation there is at some of the DC area private schools. Generally, a more modest GPA is only an issue at very large state schools, and even then usually the student has high enough test scores to balance out the index.
Bottom line: It is harder than it ever has been to get into any given school (like an HYP or Stanford) -- the numbers don't lie. But there are many, many outstanding colleges and universities and if a good student does not fixate on one college or a small subset, that student will have good choices. If you feel comfortable that your child is getting a great substantive education -- small class sizes, comfort and facility with research and writing, and "extras" like good arts and sports options -- then you should not let fear of grade deflation steer you away from the independent school route. But don't make the investment assuming it will lead to a certain college admissions outcome, or there is likely to be pressure and ultimately some disappointment.
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