Why is 5th grade waitlist up so much this year for Charter Schools?

[Anonymous]

Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

total size of classes is larger but if you follow single classes year to year you'll see a noticeable level of attrition within single grades for K-4. This year's 5th is relatively stable from last year's 4th, but all lower grade levels see a decline of ~ 200-300 each year per cohort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

DC public schools are loosing students each year but the attrition levels are from a higher starting point

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

total size of classes is larger but if you follow single classes year to year you'll see a noticeable level of attrition within single grades for K-4. This year's 5th is relatively stable from last year's 4th, but all lower grade levels see a decline of ~ 200-300 each year per cohort.

That seems like that's overstating it. It seems more like 100-200 each year. This year's 5655 4th graders were 5819 3rd graders and 5990 2nd graders.

This year the number of 3rd graders is 600 more than it was last year. There will be some attrition for sure, but the number of rising 5th graders for next lottery year will likely grow again by about 400 as it's done the past couple of years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

total size of classes is larger but if you follow single classes year to year you'll see a noticeable level of attrition within single grades for K-4. This year's 5th is relatively stable from last year's 4th, but all lower grade levels see a decline of ~ 200-300 each year per cohort.

That seems like that's overstating it. It seems more like 100-200 each year. This year's 5655 4th graders were 5819 3rd graders and 5990 2nd graders.

This year the number of 3rd graders is 600 more than it was last year. There will be some attrition for sure, but the number of rising 5th graders for next lottery year will likely grow again by about 400 as it's done the past couple of years.

not really

14/15 K = 7264, 15/16 1 = 7043 -221
14/15 1 = 7019, 15/16 2 = 6764 -255
14/15 2 = 6642, 15/16 3 = 6427 -215
14/15 3 = 5819, 15/16 4 = 5655 -164
14/15 4 = 5257, 15/16 5 = 5199 - 58

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

total size of classes is larger but if you follow single classes year to year you'll see a noticeable level of attrition within single grades for K-4. This year's 5th is relatively stable from last year's 4th, but all lower grade levels see a decline of ~ 200-300 each year per cohort.

That seems like that's overstating it. It seems more like 100-200 each year. This year's 5655 4th graders were 5819 3rd graders and 5990 2nd graders.

This year the number of 3rd graders is 600 more than it was last year. There will be some attrition for sure, but the number of rising 5th graders for next lottery year will likely grow again by about 400 as it's done the past couple of years.

not really

14/15 K = 7264, 15/16 1 = 7043 -221
14/15 1 = 7019, 15/16 2 = 6764 -255
14/15 2 = 6642, 15/16 3 = 6427 -215
14/15 3 = 5819, 15/16 4 = 5655 -164
14/15 4 = 5257, 15/16 5 = 5199 - 58

interestingly, the attrition rate was higher from 14/15 to 15/16 than it was from 13/14 to 14/15

13/14 K = 7163, 14/15 1 = 7019 -144
13/14 1 = 6773, 14/15 2 = 6642 -131
13/14 2 = 5990, 14/15 3 = 5819 -81
13/14 3 = 5453, 14/15 4 = 5257 -196
13/14 4 = 4804, 14/15 5 = 4784 -20

Yes, the overall numbers are higher so the difference is less statistically significant, but retention rates do matter. Schools need to retain families or attract new ones. That looks to have slipped this past year even if the overall numbers are still higher.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:90 not 95th. Sorry. Using the voice thing on my phone.

I understand this is because BASIS is adding a 12th grade and they must ensure there is enough space for everyone in order to not to break any fire code laws. Does anyone know what is the maximum capacity allowable for the current BASIS building?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:90 not 95th. Sorry. Using the voice thing on my phone.

I understand this is because BASIS is adding a 12th grade and they must ensure there is enough space for everyone in order to not to break any fire code laws. Does anyone know what is the maximum capacity allowable for the current BASIS building?

if I remember correctly (and I am sure someone will correct if I'm wrong), we parents were told at some parent info session with the HOS that the total number of students this year, which is below fire code capacity, is about how many students they want to have next year. The school recognizes that the building is already full/crowded and that they won't get to the absolute maximum allowed number of people in the building.

[Anonymous]

Parents of 2nd and 3rd graders need to be paying attention to this thread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Parents of 2nd and 3rd graders need to be paying attention to this thread.

Absolutely. I wish I had thought to look into the cohort size before the lottery instead of after the lottery results where we 'lost' the 5th grade lottery. Although you theoretically know that there are winners and losers, it's hard to anticipate how you'll actually feel when you lose. Although everyone I've talked to is angry at the fact that some win and some lose, some families seem less upset and I attribute that to the fact that their children's good friends also lost and they are now planning on going to the same MS. For us though, we have the opposite experience, where our child's closest friends got into the same MS but our child didn't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parents of 2nd and 3rd graders need to be paying attention to this thread.

Absolutely. I wish I had thought to look into the cohort size before the lottery instead of after the lottery results where we 'lost' the 5th grade lottery. Although you theoretically know that there are winners and losers, it's hard to anticipate how you'll actually feel when you lose. Although everyone I've talked to is angry at the fact that some win and some lose, some families seem less upset and I attribute that to the fact that their children's good friends also lost and they are now planning on going to the same MS. For us though, we have the opposite experience, where our child's closest friends got into the same MS but our child didn't.

So what's your plan?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Parents of 2nd and 3rd graders need to be paying attention to this thread.

the real eye opener is the tightening of favored MS landing spots. Hardy offered 1/4 OOB 6th seats as last year. Latin nearly doubled its already large 5th grade waitlist and BASIS increased six fold. I wonder how much of this is driven by schools not wanting to overextend by offering the true number of expected available seats. For 5th grade there's an x factor in not knowing how your rising 4th graders will fare in lottery and open seats can be filled via waitlist over summer. Hardy should have a better read on its rising 6th grade because lottery odds are dim for 6th grade charters. Aside from Hardy, all of its feeders offered an extremely limited number of 5th grade seats and lower than SY14/15.

I have no horse in this race, but I'd say the arrow is pointing up on Hardy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parents of 2nd and 3rd graders need to be paying attention to this thread.

the real eye opener is the tightening of favored MS landing spots. Hardy offered 1/4 OOB 6th seats as last year. Latin nearly doubled its already large 5th grade waitlist and BASIS increased six fold. I wonder how much of this is driven by schools not wanting to overextend by offering the true number of expected available seats. For 5th grade there's an x factor in not knowing how your rising 4th graders will fare in lottery and open seats can be filled via waitlist over summer. Hardy should have a better read on its rising 6th grade because lottery odds are dim for 6th grade charters. Aside from Hardy, all of its feeders offered an extremely limited number of 5th grade seats and lower than SY14/15.

I have no horse in this race, but I'd say the arrow is pointing up on Hardy.

For 5th BASIS offered fewer seats than in the past; Latin was steady at 90. But the number of 5th graders overall is up by 500 students. Not all were playing the lottery, but demand is definitely outstripping supply.

Remember Hardy only takes 6th graders - so people who struck out at 5th should be concerned if that was their plan for next year.

So people are either going to decide to take a chance on a less favored option, or move or apply for private at 6th.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks 13:58.

And each class behind them gets larger by a couple hundred more.

DC public schools are loosing students each year but the attrition levels are from a higher starting point

This is the exact opposite of truth. DCPS is growing each year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parents of 2nd and 3rd graders need to be paying attention to this thread.

the real eye opener is the tightening of favored MS landing spots. Hardy offered 1/4 OOB 6th seats as last year. Latin nearly doubled its already large 5th grade waitlist and BASIS increased six fold. I wonder how much of this is driven by schools not wanting to overextend by offering the true number of expected available seats. For 5th grade there's an x factor in not knowing how your rising 4th graders will fare in lottery and open seats can be filled via waitlist over summer. Hardy should have a better read on its rising 6th grade because lottery odds are dim for 6th grade charters. Aside from Hardy, all of its feeders offered an extremely limited number of 5th grade seats and lower than SY14/15.

I have no horse in this race, but I'd say the arrow is pointing up on Hardy.

For 5th BASIS offered fewer seats than in the past; Latin was steady at 90. But the number of 5th graders overall is up by 500 students. Not all were playing the lottery, but demand is definitely outstripping supply.

Remember Hardy only takes 6th graders - so people who struck out at 5th should be concerned if that was their plan for next year.

So people are either going to decide to take a chance on a less favored option, or move or apply for private at 6th.

But Latin has 266 deep on its 5th grade waitlist and a share of the 90 seats filled were offered to siblings